SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[AnnularCane]

Good morning! Ready for hurricane season?

[skysummit]

Good morning AnnularCane!

A little early start to the season heh? At least we're getting practice!

[Thunder44]

I wonder if NHC will send an official upgrade statement.

They already made a statement. They will just sent out the advisory now probably in a few mins or so.

[feederband]

Good morning AnnularCane!

A little early start to the season heh? At least we're getting practice!

This isn't bowling...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dvorak 3.0 would be 52 mph on the dvorak scale i think

[Chacor]

Not Dvorak numbers. ST classifications from Hebert-Poteat system. Not sure if there's a difference of what number corresponds to what intensity.

[skysummit]

Dvorak 3.0 would be 52 mph on the dvorak scale i think

That's correct:

3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb

[wxman57]

The only question is whehter core is warm enough

This question has been answered as NRL site says Andrea and Dr. Jeff Masters says it is Andrea as well. NHC also said it was acquiring the characteristics of a subtropical cyclone.

Actually, the question hasn't been fully-answered. The recon plane flew into the storm at 300mb (9400 meters) and dropped a number of dropsondes to sample the core. What they found is that from 850mb up, it's definitely cold-core. There was a small warm layer below 950mb, but that's it. Generally, this isn't enough to call a system subtropical. But there are other factors at play here. It's proximity to land may lead the NHC to call it STS Andrea regardless of the upper-level profile. The reason is that emergency managers across the SE U.S. may need a named system to begin their preparations. Who knows what's going on in the conference calls they're having with the NHC?

So, I think there's a good chance the NHC will call it Andrea regardless of the amount of warm core aloft (or lack of it). But I caution all of you to read that part of the NHC's statement that is being ignored, for the most part. That is "IF THE TREND CONTINUES". Is the trend continuing? I see convection diminishing now. The center isn't as clear-cut as earlier. Winds appear to be dropping as well. We should know what the NHC decides within the next hour.

[CrazyC83]

For those new here: Advisories are typically at 03Z, 09Z, 15Z and 21Z (5 am, 11 am, 5 pm and 11 pm EDT).

Intermediate advisories are issued at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z if a watch or warning is in effect, unless the eye of a hurricane is visible on radar, in which case such advisories are at all odd-numbered hours (UTC) without a full advisory and position estimates at all even-numbered hours (UTC). Special advisories can be issued at any time (but I have never seen one within an hour of a full advisory) and are for sudden upgrades or course changes.

[MWatkins]

I think they are committed to an "upgrade" at this point...would expect to see the products start rolling out any time now.

In the end it's not going to make much difference. The swells are already taking out beaches and the winds are down from where they were. Can't see it getting much stronger. Only question now is will it come in, go out to sea or sit and spin for 5 days.

Either way everybody who issues seasonal forecasts has to increase their number by 1 now...

MW

[KatDaddy]

We will soon know if STS Andrea is official. It has looked fairly good from satellite but that alone is not enough.

[Chacor]

Should clarify further, Crazyc.

The 03, 09, 15 and 21Z discussions carry information that is usually operational at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z, since those are the synoptic hours...

[tailgater]

I can't find a defined center on satelite or radar anymore.

[Hurricanehink]

Awesome, NRL has 01L Andrea! First May named storm since 1981.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah, it definitely is getting hard to see a well defined center. I am having to eat my words today because I said a few days ago it would never become a subtropical cyclone. I think that if the NHC did not feel obligated to upgrade this swirl of clouds to a subtropical cyclone due to its proximity to land, then they never would have upgraded it in the end. But, as MW and others have said, they are obligated to upgrade it at this time. But again, I am eating my own words from a few days ago.

[Thunder44]

Recon just sent out a vortex that showed outer and inner core temp at 20C.

[tracyswfla]

Geez! First VDM of the season on May 9th!

[Stormcenter]

I'd say they (NHC) should go ahead and name it.
It's only a name anyway. They still have what like 23 more names to use.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html


By the way for those worried about the possible early start to the season. I remember last season how we had the very early June TS in GOM and some started stressing out about how busy it would
be again in 2006. Well we all know what ended up happening.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Well even if this is all we see for another couple of months, it is nice to see everyone coming back to the site again this year! Let's hope for lots of action and storms to track, but minimal loss of life and property. Too bad we couldn't watch all the cool effects of these storms without people having to lose so much in the process.

[CrazyC83]

IIRC, a strong warm core is a tropical cyclone, not a subtropical cyclone. Subtropical storms can have cold cores if they have all other tropical characteristics...but it does have a ways to go before it becomes purely tropical.