EJ's STS Andrea Forecasts

[Evil Jeremy]

Just like i did with last year's storms, I will creat my own forecasts on the Hurricane, as Derek, Coredesat, and some others did and probably will do again this year.

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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products


EJ’s Advisories
Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea
May 9, 2007
11:45 AM

Hurricane Season 2007 starts off early with Andrea

This morning, Hurricane Hunters were flying into Invest 90L to determine weather or not it was Tropical, Sub-Tropical, or just a Low Pressure Front. They indeed found that the low became a Sub-Tropical system, and “Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea” was formed. This is the first named storm in May since 1981

At the time of this forecast, which is completely unofficial, Andrea had winds of 45 MPH, and was moving west at around 5 MPH. The pressure has been estimated to be around 1000 MB. While the latest recon Vortex Message reports winds over 45 MPH, I still believe that they are around what I indicated.

Andrea is currently in warm waters, meaning that it could strengthen. However, because of shear around the system and its proximity to land, I do not expect much strengthen over the next few days.

The movement of Andrea is also very uncertain. The computer models are diverse for the system, with some taking it north and into Georgia, some taking it into Florida and the rest curving it back out to sea. I predict that Andrea will follow a path similar to the latest GFDL model run, which takes Andrea westward into Florida, then curving it back out on the Florida coast. If a Florida landfall is made, the intensity would be hard to determine, at least at this time.

As stated above, I do not expect much intensification of Andrea, as it is being surrounded by shear. Even though it is now officially a Sub-Tropical Storm, it seems to be more ragged than it did earlier. I expect slight strengthening over the next 12 hours, followed by a weakening trend. However, my trend is slower than the one from the National Hurricane Center.

Since it is hard to find the current position of Andrea, we sill use the NHC position for this advisory, which is at 30.8 North and at 79.3 West.

Even though the winds in Andrea are not strong, they stretch out far. They are currently estimated to stretch out 115 miles from the center.

INITIAL 45 MPH
12HR VT 50 MPH
24HR VT 45 MPH
36HR VT 40 MPH
48HR VT 35 MPH
72HR VT 35 MPH
96HR VT 30 MPH

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good forecasting! I enjoy reading analyses

[Evil Jeremy]

thank you

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

EJ’s Advisories
Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea
May 9, 2007
5:45 PM

Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea becoming disorganized

Over the past few hours, the satellite presentation of Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea has been looking more ragged and more disorganized than earlier before. The convection from Andrea has also started to disappear as well. However, there is a chance that Andrea will become better organized overnight.

The 5 PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center says that Andrea still has winds of 45 MPH, but I disagree. Looking at its condition, I believe that the winds are weaker, and for this forecast of mine, which is completely unofficial, I have the winds at 40 MPH, with a pressure of 1003 MB, slowly heading west.

The reason that Andrea is weakening is because it is not in the warmest of waters and there is shear attacking the west side of the system, which has opened up its eye wall. If the shear persists, Andrea could become ripped apart by Saturday night. Its because of the shear, and the latest model runs that I have changed my latest cone more south and east.

For my latest cone, I expect Andrea to move around slowly in a general westward direction for the next 6-12 hours, before heading SW and then dissipating.

Since it is hard to find the current position of Andrea, we sill use the NHC position for this advisory, which is at 30.8 North and at 79.3 West.

Even though the winds in Andrea are not strong, they stretch out far. They are currently estimated to stretch out 115 miles from the center.

INITIAL 40 MPH
12HR VT 40 MPH
24HR VT 35 MPH
36HR VT 35 MPH
48HR VT 30 MPH
72HR Dissipated

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good Forecasting my friend...I wish andrea had more rain lol

[Evil Jeremy]

lol your right. but as i said in my previous forecast, these kind of storms tend to regenerate over night. also, is it me, or is my latest cone pic not showing up?

[Coredesat]

It's showing up fine for me.

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

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EJ’s Advisories
Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea
May 9, 2007
Nighttime Update

Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea is continuing to weaken as the night progresses. As of this update, all of the convection is on the storms eastern side, and Andrea has been making little movement since my previous forecast. However, despite the fact that Andrea is weakening, some storms tend to regenerate a little bit over night, so in the morning, we will know for sure if it will survive until Friday. Until my morning forecast, I have just updated my cone and intensity forecast to match the current models.



INITIAL 40 MPH
12HR VT 40 MPH
24HR VT 35 MPH
36HR VT 35 MPH
48HR VT 30 MPH
72HR Dissipated

[Evil Jeremy]

EJ’s Advisories
Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea
May 9, 2007
7:45 AM

Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea is dieing

Andrea’s presentation is basically the same this morning as it was last night. The convection is off to the eastern side of Andrea only, and shear is attacking Andrea’s western side.

Despite the fact that Andrea is becoming more disorganized, however, I have chosen to keep the winds at 40 MPH, with a pressure of 1005 MB, heading to the South West very slowly. Andrea should continue the slow movement for the next few days.

As stated above, I believe Andrea to still have wind speeds of 40 MPH, but I do not expect it to stay there for long. By the end of the day, I expect Andrea to become a Sub-Tropical Depression. Despite the SHIPS and GFDL intensity forecasts, I still forecast Andrea dissipating within 3 days.

This morning, the models are anything but in agreement. This is partially because Andrea is now embedded within an Upper Level Through. We have some models saying that Andrea will turn north then east, others taking her into Florida, and the rest taking her south for a few more days and then taking her back out to see. I chose to go with the third path for this advisory. I expect Andrea to move south over the next 2 days before starting a gradual turn to the East.

INITIAL 40 MPH
12HR VT 35 MPH
24HR VT 35 MPH
36HR VT 30 MPH
48HR VT 30 MPH
72HR Dissipated

[Evil Jeremy]

EJ’s Advisories
Sub-Tropical Depression Andrea
May 10, 2007
Final Update

Andrea has died.

Nearly all of the convection has been separated from Andrea, and it is now basically a swirl of clouds. I will stop posting my forecasts on Sub-Tropical Depression Andrea

INITIAL 30 MPH
12HR VT 25 MPH
24HR Dissipated