SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

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cycloneye
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#441 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 09, 2007 1:33 pm

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA 01L

INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 30.6 79.2 270./ 4.1
6 30.9 79.4 318./ 3.7
12 30.7 79.5 211./ 1.7
18 30.6 79.7 249./ 1.5
24 30.6 79.9 252./ 1.7
30 30.2 79.9 180./ 3.8
36 30.1 79.7 131./ 2.1
42 30.2 79.6 43./ 2.1
48 30.5 79.4 24./ 2.9
54 30.6 79.6 290./ 1.8
60 30.6 79.7 280./ 1.0
66 30.7 79.8 353./ 1.6
72 30.7 79.8 270./ .6
78 30.6 79.7 144./ 1.6
84 30.4 79.4 126./ 3.3
90 30.1 78.8 116./ 6.1
96 29.8 77.9 107./ 8.4
102 29.4 76.5 106./13.1
108 29.1 75.1 102./12.5
114 28.6 74.1 116./10.2
120 28.4 73.0 101./ 9.8
126 28.0 72.8 160./ 4.4

This is the 12z GFDL text.Umm at the top it says Tropical Storm Andrea.
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#442 Postby P.K. » Wed May 09, 2007 1:36 pm

All the previous runs on 90L said the same thing as well though Luis.
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drezee
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#443 Postby drezee » Wed May 09, 2007 1:36 pm

LINK

heavy rain at SAV, GA


EDIT: Changed URL to link -senorpepr
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#444 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 09, 2007 1:37 pm

P.K. wrote:All the previous runs on 90L said the same thing as well though Luis.

Oh ok thanks Peter. :)
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#445 Postby punkyg » Wed May 09, 2007 1:38 pm

Dangit i can't post any pictures corretly.
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#446 Postby drezee » Wed May 09, 2007 1:43 pm

Two different ships are reporting 43 mph 10-min sustained winds at 18z. By those repostrs, the winds are steady state from this morning.

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/atl-seusplot.php
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#447 Postby drezee » Wed May 09, 2007 1:49 pm

This system formed on the front end of a moist MJO pahse for the W Atlantic. Maybe the MJO will be the predictor of choice this year like in 2004.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly.shtml
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#448 Postby feederband » Wed May 09, 2007 1:54 pm

Although she is pretty ugly...It almost appears that moisture is starting to fill in a little bit more near the center...
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#449 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed May 09, 2007 2:00 pm

punkyg wrote:Dangit i can't post any pictures corretly.


Your keyboard isn't working, either, apparently. :-)
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#450 Postby B'hamBlazer » Wed May 09, 2007 2:00 pm

To me, it almost looks like the center may be reforming to the east... or are my eyes deceiving me?
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#451 Postby skysummit » Wed May 09, 2007 2:03 pm

B'hamBlazer wrote:To me, it almost looks like the center may be reforming to the east... or are my eyes deceiving me?


That looks like the upper center to me. It kind of looks like the lower center and upper center have seperated.
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#452 Postby drezee » Wed May 09, 2007 2:03 pm

IT is becoming decoupled. That is the mid-level center that you see to the NE.
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#453 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed May 09, 2007 2:05 pm

B'hamBlazer wrote:To me, it almost looks like the center may be reforming to the east... or are my eyes deceiving me?


I do think it is a possibility, but what I see is that Andrea's donut is filling in with convection. It almost looks like it has two vorticies with the dominant vortex being the one to the east.
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feederband
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#454 Postby feederband » Wed May 09, 2007 2:05 pm

THe center I see hasn't moved much at all..
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#455 Postby punkyg » Wed May 09, 2007 2:09 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
punkyg wrote:Dangit i can't post any pictures corretly.


Your keyboard isn't working, either, apparently. :-)
+-

I know.
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Damar91
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#456 Postby Damar91 » Wed May 09, 2007 2:29 pm

Someone should really shoot this horse, Andrea looks really sick!
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#457 Postby Opal storm » Wed May 09, 2007 2:29 pm

Once again...I come home from work to see something new. :eek:
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#458 Postby Javlin » Wed May 09, 2007 2:31 pm

skysummit wrote:
B'hamBlazer wrote:To me, it almost looks like the center may be reforming to the east... or are my eyes deceiving me?


That looks like the upper center to me. It kind of looks like the lower center and upper center have seperated.


Sky if you go to the floater and install the forcast points it appears that is the center the NHC is using for tracking,so all seems to be inline with there line of thinking.I think that the system is even transitioning even further Damar,hey I might be wrong but to me with the center filling in it is looking more like a real tropical system.Have to see how it looks later this evening.Kevin

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Last edited by Javlin on Wed May 09, 2007 2:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#459 Postby Scorpion » Wed May 09, 2007 2:31 pm

I don't see Florida getting much,if any rain out of this
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#460 Postby B'hamBlazer » Wed May 09, 2007 2:32 pm

I dont see this as dead at all... not yet anyway. To me, it almost seems to be trying to reorganize which seems a bit unusual for just a subtropical system. I've seen a number of other well-educated people jumping on a few ideas that that would indicate maybe it's not dying (yet)... 1) an apparent reforming of the center east of the previous one, and 2) taking up more moisture in the COC
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