Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[loro-rojo]

In the last couple of frames from the floater, it looks like there has been a blow-up of convection around the storm. What does this mean, if anything?

[Stratosphere747]

It's a STS in early May. Don't be surprised to see the advisory's come to a end on Thursday.

[Nimbus]

The increased convection in the last few frames might be from afternoon heating.

The outflow looks a little different the last few frames as well, maybe high pressure is starting to build over Andrea?

[HURAKAN]

http://s40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/ ... c8c3c6.pbr

Another Andrea's pix remix. Music more festive!!!

[HURAKAN]

Diurnal maximum may be impacting the system:

17:02 UTC (1:02 PM EDT):


23:02 UTC (7:02 PM EDT):


Tomorrow we will wake up to surely find a different Andrea.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gfdl takes it almost due east or east-southeast now, many other models take it southwestward then move it around. If the overall shear stays low, would not be suprized to see it once it moves southward into warmer water, to strengthen. But yeah shear should increase.

Also convection is on the interest. The overall center is around 30.5/79.8 or so. The LLC at least the defined on is moving around its base to the east. Which is near the southern convection area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At this point, I would not be surprised by anything that happens with Andrea. My feeling is that she will likely weaken and be a thing of the past soon, but I wouldn't be shocked if it hung around for awhile. One thing that interests me most this evening is the model runs..



The SHIPS model is forecasting Andrea to reach 65mph in 5 days! What's up with that? The craziest thing though would be if the NOGAPS or BAM was right and it worked into the GOM.

[KatDaddy]

Andrea has some banding to the S and SE this evening.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pix!!!

[cpdaman]

i hope it drifts SE and sends some more waves to palm beach

as well as some rain

model spread looks intresting (all over the place) which shows the steering current are non existant

i'm gonna try to put up a SST plot w/ andrea over it, btw i'm slow w/ graphics so if anyone would like to beat me to it

[MusicCityMan]

We need some rain! That would maybe be a positive to if she strengthened some.. It would maybe allow her to drop a couple inches instead of less than 1..

[Opal storm]

The SHIPS model is forecasting Andrea to reach 65mph in 5 days! What's up with that? The craziest thing though would be if the NOGAPS or BAM was right and it worked into the GOM.

There is so much shear and dry air in the Gulf right now, that is almost out of the question.Also I heard Jim Canote talking about a storm system that will come from the west and help push this thing back out into the Atlantic. I don't think Andrea will be around much longer.

[theworld]

MODIS has a real nice sat shot of Andrea here w/HI Res available...
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 00.2km.jpg

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N 79.5W AT 10/0000
UTC OR 110 MILES SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. ANDREA HAS BEEN
MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER LARGE SLOPPY CIRCULATION
OF ANDREA HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE DECLINE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW QUADRANT. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOWS NARROW BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ONSHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AN IMPROVED WIDER BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

TPC 8 PM Special Feature discussion.

[CrazyC83]

One thing I do think in the post-analysis it will be determined that Andrea was born yesterday as a subtropical cyclone that the NHC wanted to wait for the Recon on...

[CrazyC83]

I was looking up the archives and only seven tropical or subtropical storms formed earlier than Andrea...the earlier ones were on January 19 (1978), February 2 (1952), March 6 (1908), April 19 (2003 - Ana), April 22 (1992), May 5 (1932) and May 7 (1981 - Arlene).

Of those, two were subtropical storms, four were tropical storms and one was a Category 2 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

09/2345 UTC 30.4N 80.0W ST1.5/2.5 ANDREA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Those latest T numbers indicate Andrea is slowly weakening.

[Coredesat]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC kill off Andrea sometime tomorrow. Sure, convection is on the increase, but it's mostly confined to the SE quadrant - there's hardly any convection anywhere else (a little in the NE quad). Andrea is definitely weakening, and the dry air should put a nail in its coffin.

[cycloneye]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC kill off Andrea sometime tomorrow. Sure, convection is on the increase, but it's mostly confined to the SE quadrant - there's hardly any convection anywhere else (a little in the NE quad). Andrea is definitely weakening, and the dry air should put a nail in its coffin.

Thery may wait for recon that flys tommorow morning to see if they find something of interest before declaring the final chapter.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What's the next storm name once Andrea dies?