Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

#81 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 10, 2007 5:52 am

Good morning Andrea. Is the wind blowing your hair!!! I mean, is the windshear blowing your convection!!!

#82 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 10, 2007 6:11 am

1059 3113N 08104W 01845 0040 051 039 100 076 041 01909 0000000000

41x.80 = 32.8 knots ~ 33 knots. Very close to tropical storm intensity winds found so far.

#83 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 10, 2007 6:18 am

Convection is trying to form near the center.

Thunder44 · #84 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu May 10, 2007 6:24 am

HURAKAN wrote:1059 3113N 08104W 01845 0040 051 039 100 076 041 01909 0000000000

41x.80 = 32.8 knots ~ 33 knots. Very close to tropical storm intensity winds found so far.

They are just off the Georgia coast now. They found those winds about 80 to 90 miles NW of the center with little shower activity. I suspect they will find stronger winds at flight level in thunderstorms in NE Quad.

#85 Postby **wxman57** » Thu May 10, 2007 6:47 am

HURAKAN wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It's quite certain we now have STD Andrea. Recon is on the way out, but buoy/ship reports all around the center indicate 30-35 mph winds at most. For those of you in Florida hoping for rain from Andrea, it doesn't look good. Westerly shear is keeping all convection east of the center, and that probably won't change. To quote anotehr Seinfeld episode "NEXT!"

Agree, but lets see what the RECON finds. Maybe there is still some 40-mph winds areas in the convection.

I have no doubt that the recon plane will find whatever the forecasters at the NHC want it to find. By that I mean that the plane may well find 45 kt winds at flight level. If they want to still call it an STS, they'll use the "standard" 90% reduction to surface winds. The problem with that is there is a lot of dry, stable air surrounding the storm now, so the standard FL-SFC conversion will yield way too high a value. On the other hand, if they're watching the news about this "non-event, they may let Andrea go quuietly into the night.

The only reason there's any convection at all now is because of a hot spot at the entrance region of the jet, the jet that's causing the shear. If that shear should subside, then there won't be anything left to maintain convection and we'll be left with a low-level swirl that'll last for days.

#86 Postby **wxman57** » Thu May 10, 2007 6:50 am

Thunder44 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:1059 3113N 08104W 01845 0040 051 039 100 076 041 01909 0000000000

41x.80 = 32.8 knots ~ 33 knots. Very close to tropical storm intensity winds found so far.

They are just off the Georgia coast now. They found those winds about 80 to 90 miles NW of the center with little shower activity. I suspect they will find stronger winds at flight level in thunderstorms in NE Quad.

Just remember that you cannot use the standard FL-SFC wind reduction for a non-tropical system in a stable low-level environment. The conversion may be as little as 50-60%. Buoys all along teh coast where the plane is passing over have 20-25 kts or less.

Thunder44 · #87 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:00 am

wxman57 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:1059 3113N 08104W 01845 0040 051 039 100 076 041 01909 0000000000

41x.80 = 32.8 knots ~ 33 knots. Very close to tropical storm intensity winds found so far.

They are just off the Georgia coast now. They found those winds about 80 to 90 miles NW of the center with little shower activity. I suspect they will find stronger winds at flight level in thunderstorms in NE Quad.

Just remember that you cannot use the standard FL-SFC wind reduction for a non-tropical system in a stable low-level environment. The conversion may be as little as 50-60%. Buoys all along teh coast where the plane is passing over have 20-25 kts or less.

I see that, but do we have bouy or ship reports under the t-storms? I haven't seen any this morning.

#88 Postby **wxman57** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:03 am

Thunder44 wrote:I see that, but do we have bouy or ship reports under the t-storms? I haven't seen any this morning.

Nah, buoys are all near the coast. But even if the plane finds 50-55 kt winds in those storms, it doesn't mean ther eare 35kt winds at the surface. Standard conversions won't apply in this case.

Thunder44 · #89 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:07 am

The new VDM has extrap pressure of 1002mb, which is one less mb then yesterday. Also the inner core temp is 22C while the outer core temp is 21C, which may mean center is becoming warm core.

#90 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:09 am

possible strengthening?

Thunder44 · #91 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:13 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:possible strengthening?

It's really not a significant change in strength, but it is moving back over warmer gulf-stream water 26C to 27C (79F to 80F) just east of FL. That may help it maintain itself longer, despite the shear. The storm may also gain more tropical characteristics:

Here's a SST map:

Stratusxpeye · #92 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:26 am

This thing is just going to sit there for days huh? And bring not one drop of drizzle rain let alone anything measurable to 90% of Florida if not 100%. I can not belive there calling this a storm still. In my opinion I would have to say it's down to a depression. They may find one spot of TS winds at flight level but I almost gaurente there's non on the surface, especially not over land. I know it's a bold statement but it's my statement on this system at this time. It's gonna be sitting there as a swirl though for a very long time.

#93 Postby **wxman57** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:29 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:This thing is just going to sit there for days huh? And bring not one drop of drizzle rain let alone anything measurable to 90% of Florida if not 100%. I can not belive there calling this a storm still. In my opinion I would have to say it's down to a depression. They may find one spot of TS winds at flight level but I almost gaurente there's non on the surface, especially not over land. I know it's a bold statement but it's my statement on this system at this time. It's gonna be sitting there as a swirl though for a very long time.

That pretty much sums it up.

#94 Postby **Noah** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:30 am

looks like its not even coming toward florida anymore, its going to go south east?

Nimbus · #95 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:41 am

The air is just so dry over land Andrea is not going to get any energy from the western semicircle inflow.

If she can tap some of the warmer gulf stream off the Cape maybe she will hang around long enough to pull that next trough down.

Cold fronts in May are usually not very impressive here in Florida and seldom dig very far south.

The Dark Knight · #96 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu May 10, 2007 7:56 am

[font=Arial]looks like shes drifting a bit SE now... [/font]

#97 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 10, 2007 8:11 am

Andrea in 24 hours:

TODAY:

YESTERDAY:

#98 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu May 10, 2007 8:12 am

At this point, I personally think it is a 30 knot tropical depression. It has weakened a bit but also picked up the warm core I think.

Thunder44 · #99 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu May 10, 2007 8:24 am

They've been flying the in the NE Quad, and they haven't found any TS force winds at flight level. Thunderstorm activity is well over 100miles east and NE of the center and has diminished somewhat. This might be downgraded at 11am.

#100 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 10, 2007 8:26 am

Thunder44 wrote:They've been flying the in the NE Quad, and they haven't found any TS force winds at flight level. Thunderstorm activity is well over 100miles east and NE of the center and has diminished somewhat. This might be downgraded at 11am.

Most likely. So far the strongest winds have been 38 knots @ flight level which equal 30 knots @ the surface.

Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

Who is online