Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[HURAKAN]

01L.ANDREA.30kts.1002mb.30.1N.79.8W.

[drezee]

They've been flying the in the NE Quad, and they haven't found any TS force winds at flight level. Thunderstorm activity is well over 100miles east and NE of the center and has diminished somewhat. This might be downgraded at 11am.

Most likely. So far the strongest winds have been 38 knots @ flight level which equal 30 knots @ the surface.

True, but I beleive that it is now a tropical depression:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

[HURAKAN]

They've been flying the in the NE Quad, and they haven't found any TS force winds at flight level. Thunderstorm activity is well over 100miles east and NE of the center and has diminished somewhat. This might be downgraded at 11am.

Most likely. So far the strongest winds have been 38 knots @ flight level which equal 30 knots @ the surface.

True, but I beleive that it is now a tropical depression:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Agree. I think that at the end of the season the post-analysis will show that Andrea was subtropical on Tuesday and became tropical yesterday. For now, lets see what the NHC has to say.

[drezee]

For example:

TD 18-E from last year:

[tailgater]

True she's getting sheared to death but she does have some fairly strong banding features delevoping to the south or southeast drawing in some energy from down there., so I wouldn't completely discount any chance of her regenerating somewhat.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Andrea looks like a tropical depression, 30 mph winds,
with dry air causing it to dissipate.

A trough over Texas right now should bring additional
moisture and rain chances to Florida next week at 30% for
coastal areas and 40% inland...there should be enough instability
for some rain.

[HURAKAN]

Gustav was an interesting case. For example, look in the website below and click on the movie.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2002 ... 2_sum.html
You could argue based on this information that Andrea was subtropical long before the NHC decided to upgrade the storm.

Gustav became tropical on the 10th @ 12 UTC, before that it was consired by the NHC as a subtropical cyclone.

Code: Select all

Table 1: Best track for Hurricane Gustav, 8 - 12 September 2002. Date/Time
(UTC) Position Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage
Lat.
(°N) Lon.
(°W)
08/ 1200 29.0 71.0 1009 30 subtropical depression
08 / 1800 30.2 71.1 1007 35 subtropical storm
09 / 0000 30.5 72.3 1004 40 "
09 / 0600 31.2 72.6 1003 40 "
09 / 1200 31.6 73.6 1002 40 "
09 / 1800 31.9 74.5 1002 40 "
10 / 0000 32.1 75.5 996 45 "
10 / 0600 33.0 75.5 990 50 "
10 / 1200 33.7 75.4 987 50 tropical storm


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002gustav.shtml

SUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV:


NON-TROPICAL, NON-SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM:


Which one looks better, pre-Andrea I will say.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV:


PRE-ANDREA:


In this case Gustav looks better but, you could make the case that pre-Andrea is organized enough to be a tropical cyclone.

<This analysis is just based on images and not statistical information collected in the storms>

[drezee]

Interested to why they sent out a update to the vortex message:

MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 39 KT @ 13:36:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Chacor]

Almost no convection near the centre at all now. Convection is sheared quite far from the centre.

[HURAKAN]

[font=Georgia]WEAKENING AS WE SPEAK:[/font]

10:32 UTC (6:32 AM EDT)


13:45 UTC (9:45 AM EDT)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Goodbye Andrea...you were fascinating to track!

[HURAKAN]

Before named everyone was thrilled with the possibility of having in early May the first storm of the season. Now the storm got named, and begins to weaken, and most of the forum is empty and we are saying.

"Does anyone know when is Barry scheduled to appear, because it's sister surely is boring!!!"

Everyone likes the Cape Verde storms.

[gtalum]

Wow 2007 is really a dud season. Time to cancel it.

[Chacor]

As long as they don't make landfall as majors!

[Thunder44]

Before named everyone was thrilled with the possibility of having in early May the first storm of the season. Now the storm got named, and begins to weaken, and most of the forum is empty and we are saying.

"Does anyone know when is Barry scheduled to appear, because it's sister surely is boring!!!"

Everyone likes the Cape Verde storms.

Well it's really out of season. So it's amazing that it got this far in development, considering the unfavorable enviornment and cooler water temps.

[HURAKAN]

Before named everyone was thrilled with the possibility of having in early May the first storm of the season. Now the storm got named, and begins to weaken, and most of the forum is empty and we are saying.

"Does anyone know when is Barry scheduled to appear, because it's sister surely is boring!!!"

Everyone likes the Cape Verde storms.

Well it's really out of season. So it's amazing that it got this far in development, considering the unfavorable enviornment and cooler water temps.

Historically speaking, this storm was amazing. Maybe that will be the word of the season!!!

[cycloneye]

The only question that is left is if before it dissipates NHC classifies it as tropical. Let's see at 11 AM if they leave it as sub or they go ahead and turn it to Tropical.

[wjs3]

I just can't see the reasoning in turning it tropical. With only 1 degree "warming" between the environment and the "center"--I use that term very loosely--as well as the origins of the strom (baroclinic), and the origins of the convection--ascent due to jet streak--this storm has little tropical going for it.

['CaneFreak]

Why SHOULD they classify it as tropical? For one, the SSTs are no where near 80 degrees, secondly the convection is displaced well away from the center at the present time, thirdly dry air and upper level shear is shearing this thing completely apart. Tropical or subtropical? I think subtropical. UNLESS they found a warm cored system when the recon went up this morning, which I dont think they did.

[Acral]

I'm thinking they will dub it tropical, and if the BAM and NOGAPS models verify, we could see TD/TW Andrea enter the Gulf and have an outside chance of spinning back up. I know, far fetched, but hey, so was the idea of Andrea in the first place.