Accu-weather 2007 Hurricane Forecast

[Kennethb]

While the number of storm JB predicted did not pan out as it did for most, most of the tropical activity and moisture was focused on the areas (Texas and Middle Atlantic Coast) where he did target. The systems just did not develop. As I recall there were several strong waves that came close to being names systems.

[Scott_inVA]

Media frenzy



The media frenzy has started about this forecast from Joe Bastardi.

And the principal reason this "forecast" is issued by Accu might be........................................


Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[ALhurricane]

This is not intended as a bash, but some may consider it so. I just find it amazing that they can turn a bad forecast from last year and spin it to sound as if they had a successful one. Being in the meteorological community, I find that to be very disturbing and extremely unprofessional and I think it is worth mentioning. That is why there is a lack of respect for Accuweather by a lot of people.

[LarryWx]

This is not intended as a bash, but some may consider it so. I just find it amazing that they can turn a bad forecast from last year and spin it to sound as if they had a successful one. Being in the meteorological community, I find that to be very disturbing and extremely unprofessional and I think it is worth mentioning. That is why there is a lack of respect for Accuweather by a lot of people.

I don't consider this post as a bash. Bashing suggests unfair, overly harsh, threatening criticism. I feel this is a fair criticism. Besides, that company dishes out criticism quite often. If the BB moderators were to not allow this criticism, then I'd have to think there were a problem here. The fact is that they predicted a very bad season for the U.S. with five hurricane hits on the U.S. in 2006, three of which would be major, during an oncoming El Nino. They clearly busted. My prediction made in 6/06 was 9/4/2, which took into acount an oncoming El Nino.

[bucman1]

Larry,

What is your prediction this year?

[jasons2k]

This is not intended as a bash, but some may consider it so. I just find it amazing that they can turn a bad forecast from last year and spin it to sound as if they had a successful one. Being in the meteorological community, I find that to be very disturbing and extremely unprofessional and I think it is worth mentioning. That is why there is a lack of respect for Accuweather by a lot of people.

I agree completely. That's the one thing about the release that disturbed me as well. As some said, pretty much everyone busted last year. And as Kenneth pointed out, much of the energy was focused on areas they had pointed out. But to somehow spin that their forecast was sucessful - or "correctly forecasted" as they stated - is indeed disturbing. It's no different than when some politicians do that and the public loses faith in anything they say.

[LarryWx]

Larry,

What is your prediction this year?

bucman1,
I haven't made one as of yet as it is too early for me. Last year's was made in mid-June. Hopefully, I'll make one for 2007 by that same timeframe. However, it also possible that I will decide not to make one if I don't have a strong enough feel like I did last year. Last year, I wanted to get something out so badly because practically every other forecast I had seen was for a very active season. When I saw an oncoming El Nino at a pretty early stage, I felt a rare golden opportunity to go for relatively quiet with lots of confidence when hardly anyone was doing that. I don't know that I'll again have that kind of opportunity anytime soon.

For this year as of now, it clearly looks more active (and potentially quite active) due simply to a lack of an oncoming El Nino along with still warm Atlantic SST's. However, that is about all I'll say as of now and my mind could still change prior to any forecast I might make.

[robbielyn]

I just have that feeling. It may well be like 2004. We felt frances and jeanne and hernando county little north of tampa usually misses out but not that year. Oh well we'll see. How come so many mets missed out on the el nino? Surely they should have known about it. Or did they just get all wrapped up with the two prior years thinking we were in for more? Oh well we needed a break last year so I am glad it turned out as it did. Robbielyn

[LJR]

Admin Note: Let's not start with the ACCUWEATHER bashing please It's going to be a long year as it is

Thank you! Everyone has their own opinion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Given that the signals point to a neutral year
most likely, Accuweather's projections emphasize
the need for everyone to be prepared
for the storm season.

[Derecho]

This is not intended as a bash, but some may consider it so. I just find it amazing that they can turn a bad forecast from last year and spin it to sound as if they had a successful one. Being in the meteorological community, I find that to be very disturbing and extremely unprofessional and I think it is worth mentioning. That is why there is a lack of respect for Accuweather by a lot of people.

I agree completely. That's the one thing about the release that disturbed me as well. As some said, pretty much everyone busted last year. And as Kenneth pointed out, much of the energy was focused on areas they had pointed out. But to somehow spin that their forecast was sucessful - or "correctly forecasted" as they stated - is indeed disturbing. It's no different than when some politicians do that and the public loses faith in anything they say.

I've never been able to figure out what a "bash" is, one reason I very rarely post here anymore.

For whatever reason criticism of The Private Weather Company That Shall Not Be Bashed is somehow uniquely terrifying and could somehow cause a rip in the space-time continuum that would destroy the Universe. Or something.

The reality is they're a very high profile company, a great many people get their weather information from them, they're extremely prominent in the media. and to many rational people their forecasts and practices are questionable and such "questioning" can be backed up with a great deal of documented fact.

And most importantly, The Private Weather Company That Shall Not Be Bashed does a GREAT deal of "bashing" of the NWS and NHC of their own - repeatedly, and over a long period of time. In fact, they did so over the naming of Subtropical storms a couple days ago. Not certain why they should be above criticism when they do it themselves.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree on the #'s but not on the so called bulls eye. I think the N.E from N.C. to maine is the bulls eye. Somewhat like 98. I think the mean trof will be about 85w-90w that will allow storms to curve before hitting the S.E. I think texas could get one to. As a storm could miss the trof. This will be more of a Cape Verde season with long trackers. Better chance for curving earlier.

[Steve]

>>And most importantly, The Private Weather Company That Shall Not Be Bashed does a GREAT deal of "bashing" of the NWS and NHC of their own - repeatedly, and over a long period of time. In fact, they did so over the naming of Subtropical storms a couple days ago. Not certain why they should be above criticism when they do it themselves.

See I suspected that (ref. the should it have been named thread).

Let me ask all their subscribers or viewers a question. Who more than Joe Bastardi pitches a rant when he thinks something is being ignored or should be named? No one. ABSOLUTELY NO ONE.

They're playing games and are still ticked off they can't have the public's weather information for free and then turn it around and charge it back to us in the form of 'pay for weather'. They lied, they cheated, they hedged, and their got burned. Their sponsoring senator is no longer even in the US Senate. Thank God for that. I can't begin to express how cynical they tried to get to increase their bottom line. Whomever in their company cooked up the idea to begin with should be fired.

But here's a novel idea: How about you just concentrate on doing weather better than anyone else and if you are successful, perhaps people will pay attention to what you're doing and saying rather than exposing the kindergarten fraud of a company you are? Seems reasonable to me. They have some good meterologists, and everyone knows Joe. You'd think they could parlay that into profitability rather than attempting to scam the taxpayers and cast doubt on the mission that the TPC/NHC already does. Hey, I like where my tax dollars are going. I'm not looking to exchange that for corporate welfare. But that's just me.

Steve

[Clint_TX]

Sex sells and so do hurricanes...pimps perhaps?