GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[cycloneye]

The Heat Content in the Caribbean is very high.Something may form in that area in the next few weeks as GFS in the long range has hinted.

[AnnularCane]

Could Andrea have been the storm the GFS was hinting at? I don't know many of the details about that.

[cycloneye]

Could Andrea have been the storm the GFS was hinting at? I don't know many of the details about that.

GFS was showing the low pressure in the Western Atlantic for many days,but I am referring in the Caribbean Sea.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

cycloneye do you think the large area of convection in the central Caribbean may develop
over the next 5-7 days if it disattaches from the main trough producing it?

GFS shows lessening shear and hints at a low there.

[cycloneye]

cycloneye do you think the large area of convection in the central Caribbean may develop
over the next 5-7 days if it disattaches from the main trough producing it?

GFS shows lessening shear and hints at a low there.

No,there is a big upper trough dominating in the Western Atlantic and Caribbean.All of that troughnness has to be gone before anything can start to organize into a tropical system down there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks cycloneye!
Too much troughing for now but perhaps
by early June I'm guessing we see something
like what TS Alberto was last year
a weak system in the NW caribbean
and during the same time frame
of early june.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

The GOM is really heating up with upper 70s over half of the area.

[Praxus]

SST in the florida keys hitting 30C over past 3 days...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SMKF1

Water temp at the bouy for the same day / time:

2005 25.5
2006 27.7
NOW 29.5

Definitely warming up quick it seems...at least in that area.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For the Gulf of Mexico SST measurement,
the rise of SSTs is certainly notable.

[skysummit]

Here's an SST comparison of May 9, 2007 and May 9, 2006. According to this, last year at this time the Gulf was much warmer over a larger area. This year, the Carribean looks to be warmer.

2007:


2006:

[cycloneye]

What skysummit posted about the Caribbean being more warmer than the GOM is confirmed by the Heat Content data where the Caribbean is in a high Heat Content.

[Grease Monkey]

I don't think it means much that in 2006 it was warmer around this time in the gulf because the temperatures eventually normalized as the season went on. I think it only matters what the temps end up being in prime time, so it just shows how quickly the tables can turn.

[drezee]

THE TCHP or Heat content for the Caribbean has to be historic, even though records don't date back that far.

Please compare the previous two warmest North Atl years 05 and 06 vs this year (same date):

2007



2006



2005


Also compare earliest dates of similar TCHP in both years to with now (subjective):

2006:
Jun 13



2005:

Hard sale...E Caribbean was so far ahead of schedule to find one comparable.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Interesting comparisons...will be waiting and seeing as
to what heat content is as we go into August/September

[cycloneye]

Bouy 42057 in Western Caribbean



It confirms how warm the Western Caribbean area is.

[jasons2k]

The Northern GOM - although not as warm yet as 2005, it has flipped in the last few weeks from below normal to above normal now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm impressed with the Caribbean, more TCHP then 2005. Eastern Atlantic and tropical Atlatnic appear cooler then the last 4-5 years overall. But that should help slow the devleopment of the waves intill they reach central tropical Atlantic or Caribbean.

[canegrl04]

I'm impressed with the Caribbean, more TCHP then 2005. Eastern Atlantic and tropical Atlatnic appear cooler then the last 4-5 years overall. But that should help slow the devleopment of the waves intill they reach central tropical Atlantic or Caribbean.

When a TS reaches the Carribean,it can become a major hurricane by the time it is in the GOM

[drezee]

[flightwxman]

Looks like time is catching up with the high sst's