Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[JonathanBelles]

Im beginning to think Andrea may not be over.

[MiamiensisWx]

In addition to the wind reports over the peninsula, here is an interesting slice of data from the 41009 buoy station off Cape Canaveral. Currently, one-minute winds are 19.4KT (22.3 mph) with gusts to 23.3KT (26.8 mph). As the system has moved further away from the station, winds have decreased. At 4:20 p.m. EDT, sustained winds approached 25 mph with gusts of 29 mph. At that time, the buoy was not within the mean convective mass.

This provides strong evidence of a possible tropical depression.

[NDG]

The system today has looked much better ,relatively speaking, in satellite presentation and radar presentation than what it did yesterday when she was still officaly a subtropical system, the only thing missing THIS AFTERNOON is an official surface wind reading of at least at tropical depression strength.

[wxman57]

I'm sorry wxman57, I did not look at the latest satellite when I said that. I look like a fool. But the new burst of convection moving over the center looks good, also the system looks as tropical as ever. I still expect it as its being kicked out to see some good strengthing.

No big deal, Matt. After I'd shut down my laptop at work, I checked the lat/lon on our radar by putting my cursor over the center, and the center is definitely up north of the convection. Without all the tools (that I have) and looking at low-res satellites online, it's hard to place the center with much accuracy.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Convection wrapping around the north quadrants of the circulation. Impressive radar signature.

sure looks like a TD on radar, but I have also seen many swirls like this in the past that were simply just mid-level circulations (since they are far from radar). None the less, I think that recon flight may be necessary just to be on the safe side with this one.

[NDG]

Convection wrapping around the north quadrants of the circulation. Impressive radar signature.

sure looks like a TD on radar, but I have also seen many swirls like this in the past that were simply just mid-level circulations (since they are far from radar). None the less, I think that recon flight may be necessary just to be on the safe side with this one.

You are not trying to say that there is no low level circulation?

[Blown Away]

The center has been easy to find on the Melbourne radar all day.

[eastcoastFL]

I agree I am in port st. lucie and I can clearly point out the center on my local radar.

[punkyg]

I agree I am in port st. lucie and I can clearly point out the center on my local radar.

Hi eastoastfl welcome

[Extremeweatherguy]

Convection wrapping around the north quadrants of the circulation. Impressive radar signature.

sure looks like a TD on radar, but I have also seen many swirls like this in the past that were simply just mid-level circulations (since they are far from radar). None the less, I think that recon flight may be necessary just to be on the safe side with this one.

You are not trying to say that there is no low level circulation?

I am not really sure what I am trying to say right now. I havn't even looked at Andrea for the last 12 hours and I am just now getting re-caught up with the latest information. I think reading through some of the recent comments on here has probably confused me a little bit too. I mean I see the spin on radar, and I can define a center...but is there still a well-defined LLC under the deepest convection? I was under the impression that Andrea was quickly weakening and that the swirl seen on radar may no longer be at the low levels (since the radar beam is hitting the swirl at a very high altitude). Is this incorrect?

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA 01L

INITIAL TIME 18Z MAY 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 28.5 79.7 160./ 2.9
6 28.3 79.2 107./ 4.8
12 28.5 79.1 35./ 1.9
18 28.8 78.3 66./ 7.6
24 29.6 78.2 7./ 7.6
30 29.9 77.9 45./ 4.2
36 30.4 77.2 55./ 7.9
42 30.7 76.2 72./ 8.6
48 30.8 74.7 89./13.0
54 30.7 72.7 91./17.7
60 30.8 70.3 87./20.5
66 30.8 67.8 90./21.0
72 30.8 65.2 92./22.4
78 30.6 62.6 93./22.6
84 30.5 60.4 92./18.8
90 30.5 58.2 90./18.6
96 30.8 56.2 82./17.8
102 31.0 54.4 86./15.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 102 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

As we know the official word always is NHC,however it's interesting that the header for this text of the 18z run says Tropical Depression Andrea 01L.

[NDG]

Convection wrapping around the north quadrants of the circulation. Impressive radar signature.

sure looks like a TD on radar, but I have also seen many swirls like this in the past that were simply just mid-level circulations (since they are far from radar). None the less, I think that recon flight may be necessary just to be on the safe side with this one.

You are not trying to say that there is no low level circulation?

I am not really sure what I am trying to say right now. I havn't even looked at Andrea for the last 12 hours and I am just now getting re-caught up with the latest information. I think reading through some of the recent comments on here has probably confused me a little bit too. I mean I see the spin on radar, and I can define a center...but is there still a well-defined LLC under the deepest convection? I was under the impression that Andrea was quickly weakening and that the swirl seen on radar may no longer be at the low levels (since the radar beam is hitting the swirl at a very high altitude). Is this incorrect?

There's still a LLC, what was being argued was the location of it, that earlier some thought that it was closer to the deepest convection that were moving southward, at a brief moment through radar, the circulation was moving southward along with the deepest convection, but it was just a mid level swirl.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Convection wrapping around the north quadrants of the circulation. Impressive radar signature.

sure looks like a TD on radar, but I have also seen many swirls like this in the past that were simply just mid-level circulations (since they are far from radar). None the less, I think that recon flight may be necessary just to be on the safe side with this one.

You are not trying to say that there is no low level circulation?

I am not really sure what I am trying to say right now. I havn't even looked at Andrea for the last 12 hours and I am just now getting re-caught up with the latest information. I think reading through some of the recent comments on here has probably confused me a little bit too. I mean I see the spin on radar, and I can define a center...but is there still a well-defined LLC under the deepest convection? I was under the impression that Andrea was quickly weakening and that the swirl seen on radar may no longer be at the low levels (since the radar beam is hitting the swirl at a very high altitude). Is this incorrect?

There's still a LLC, what was being argued was the location of it, that earlier some thought that it was closer to the deepest convection that were moving southward, at a brief moment through radar, the circulation was moving southward along with the deepest convection, but it was just a mid level swirl.

oh, ok. That makes sense now. Thank you.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We should know if its being upgraded again when the new models come on with in the next hour. Also T numbers come out soon to. I would say 2.0t.

[Patrick99]

That looks purely tropical to me. There must be a little pocket of warm water where she's sitting, because I thought she was left for dead. NHC's being overly conservative again...how that can nice little circulation not be a TD? Seen worse-looking TDs.

The weather has been so odd the past week or so...severe weather to start, cooler air and ridiculously dry conditions, then smoke from Georgia, a subtropical storm, dead subtropical storm reborn, and just the weirdest hazy/smoky sky all day today....

[NDG]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES E OF CAPE CANAVERAL...
BETWEEN THE TWO CAPE CANAVERAL BUOYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT IT
LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-79W.

NHC TWD

They should be able to send the reco. flight out, once convection refires later on tonight and tomorrow morning.

[eastcoastFL]

hello and thank you! She has been bringing some thunderstorms through my area most of the afternoon.

[Damar91]

hello and thank you! She has been bringing some thunderstorms through my area most of the afternoon.

Lucky you! All she has been bringing us in Coral Springs is more smoke!

[CrazyC83]

the only thing missing THIS AFTERNOON is an official surface wind reading of at least at tropical depression strength.

There is no "tropical depression strength" as winds can be 5 knots and it could still be classified as a TD.

[JonathanBelles]

the only thing missing THIS AFTERNOON is an official surface wind reading of at least at tropical depression strength.

There is no "tropical depression strength" as winds can be 5 knots and it could still be classified as a TD.

really? I thought It had to have winds of 25kts.