Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

jaxfladude · #321 Postby **jaxfladude** » Fri May 11, 2007 7:38 pm

She has been almost all "blow" and little anything else....

#322 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri May 11, 2007 7:39 pm

fact789 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
NDG wrote: the only thing missing THIS AFTERNOON is an official surface wind reading of at least at tropical depression strength.

There is no "tropical depression strength" as winds can be 5 knots and it could still be classified as a TD.

really? I thought It had to have winds of 25kts.

I've seen lower winds on advisories, although usually in the dying stages or while on land.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #323 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri May 11, 2007 7:42 pm

For a depression-it needs a closed LLC. So you need strong enough low level winds to close a low level cirulation. Which is normally around 25 knots give or take. Any less then "normally you do not have a closed LLC. Convection just help bring the winds down to the surface, also to fuel the cyclone and wind field. In that is not to say that it has to have convection over the LLC to be a depression if it has a closed LLC. If we were to fellow the Nhc thing on whats a depression naked swirls that our closed would need to be upgraded.

eastcoastFL · #324 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Fri May 11, 2007 7:48 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
hello and thank you! She has been bringing some thunderstorms through my area most of the afternoon.

Lucky you! All she has been bringing us in Coral Springs is more smoke!

The smoke has really been toned down over this way today. But its still hazy.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #325 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 12, 2007 2:53 am

Big Burst of convection right over the center,,,,

latest T numbers as of a hour ago...
12/0545 UTC 28.8N 78.9W T1.5/1.5 ANDREA

Chacor · #326 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 12, 2007 2:55 am

From 2:05...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK WITH WINDS UP TO 20
KT SURROUNDING THE LOW IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE S AND E FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
76W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.

#327 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 12, 2007 3:18 am

Chacor wrote:From 2:05...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK WITH WINDS UP TO 20
KT SURROUNDING THE LOW IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE S AND E FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
76W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.

Just the usual blah blah blah from the NHC, though after they wrote this, buoy 41010 just east of the center of low pressure reported wind gusts to 33 mph.

Just like I thought, she is booming up well, convection staying near the center with the lighter winds aloft:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #328 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 12, 2007 3:29 am

She looks as good as she ever did. This reminds me of tropical storm bonnie as it was heading at the coast line in 2004.

Also to note I've been looking at temperature charts for the Atlantic. Every where above 23-24 north but the area Andrea is in is very unfaverable sst wise. It reminds me of early April over the area north of the Islands. Also the eastern is as cold as it has been in years. Totally unfavorable sst's wise above 8 north...The caribbean and a small area east and north of the islands. In parts of the gulf is all that is favorable.

#329 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 12, 2007 3:39 am

Almost seems as if she's slowly moving NNW now.

#330 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 12, 2007 3:52 am

Buoy 41010 now reporting 1005 MB surface pressure, "falling rapidly" trend.

Buoy 41010

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #331 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:07 am

WOW it looks to be devleoping very fast this morning. Banding is forming over the eastern side of the system. Also it appears to be heading northwestward over the last hour or so. Looks like we may have a ridge to the north or northeast, forcing the convection and storm to do so. This will soon be a tropical cyclone.

Chacor · #332 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:09 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:She looks as good as she ever did. This reminds me of tropical storm bonnie as it was heading at the coast line in 2004.

Also to note I've been looking at temperature charts for the Atlantic. Every where above 23-24 north but the area Andrea is in is very unfaverable sst wise. It reminds me of early April over the area north of the Islands. Also the eastern is as cold as it has been in years. Totally unfavorable sst's wise above 8 north...The caribbean and a small area east and north of the islands. In parts of the gulf is all that is favorable.

There's also shear to consider.

For what it's worth... no text models are out. None issued since 18Z.

Chacor · #333 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:11 am

And the 00Z UKM says that Andrea's just about as worm-core as it'll ever be...

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07051200/1.phase1.png[/web]

GFS has it on the border between warm and cold core.

Chacor · #334 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:15 am

09Z ship report from 28.6N 78.7W (5 a.m. EDT): 16.5 m/s winds (32 kt!), 1006.5 mbar.

ronjon · #335 Postby **ronjon** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:16 am

Looks to fit the classification of a tropical depression now. It has impressive convection and banding with a 1005 mb surface pressure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

#336 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:26 am

Chacor wrote:09Z ship report from 28.6N 78.7W (5 a.m. EDT): 16.5 m/s winds (32 kt!), 1006.5 mbar.

With 11.5' waves, hmm.

This still good evidence to keep plans to send in the reconn flight.

Chacor · #337 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:27 am

Chacor wrote:09Z ship report from 28.6N 78.7W (5 a.m. EDT): 16.5 m/s winds (32 kt!), 1006.5 mbar.

NRL says Andrea's centre is at 28.6N 79.5W, so the ship is east of the centre (probably nearer the convection). 32 kt ≈ 37 mph.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #338 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:30 am

39 mph=tropical storm,,,Also have to watch the next few hours, if the convection keeps up. There is little that should keep it from being a named storm.

Chacor · #339 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:35 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:39 mph=tropical storm,,,Also have to watch the next few hours, if the convection keeps up. There is little that should keep it from being a named storm.

34 kt is TS not 32, I made a typographical error, 37 mph not 39. Sorry bout that.

#340 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 12, 2007 4:40 am

Chacor wrote:
Chacor wrote:09Z ship report from 28.6N 78.7W (5 a.m. EDT): 16.5 m/s winds (32 kt!), 1006.5 mbar.

NRL says Andrea's centre is at 28.6N 79.5W, so the ship is east of the centre (probably nearer the convection). 32 kt ≈ 39 mph.

No, I think the NRL has it wrong or is an old coordinates, based on the wind direction from the ship and considering sat & radar loop I put the low pressure center around 28.8N and 78.9W.

If you look at the ship report, it reports a 270 deg wind direction, which is a straight west wind, if the low pressure center was to be straight west from ship it should had been a SSE winds instead of a west wind.

Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

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