Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[Cryomaniac]

Not gonna happen guys. I know Andrea has got us all excited but it's not even hurricane season yet.

Everyone said that about the low that became Andrea

[Recurve]

From Key West NWS forecast discussion:

250 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007
...(excerpt)...
A RELATIVELY STRONG AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...PUSHING A
WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND TURNING THE LOCAL WINDS MORE
DEFINITELY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST EXTENDED GFS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO LATCH ON TO
GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL AREA FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE RAINS WOULD SURE BE
WELCOME...BELIEVE THESE NUMBERS ARE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY SEEING HOW IT HAS BEEN SPORADICALLY SPINNING
UP LOW PRESSURES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS DURING
THAT TIME. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE LATE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[Frank2]

This is from today's early morning NWS Miami discussion:

GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. DISCOUNTED THE LOW IT SHOWS MOVING SE OF
THE AREA OUT OF THE CARIB...AS THIS LOOKS SUSPECT.

To all of you oil and gas speculators out there who are reading this - whatever does form will likely move northeastward, away from the Gulf...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Intriguing prospect by these models nevertheless

[drezee]

72 hour

[drezee]

You can also see air piling up on the visiblw loop.

The buoys are on board as well...wind decreasing as you go west across the caribbean

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If shear diminishes and moisture increases, because
Sea Surface Temperatures are warm a low pressure
area at the surface is possible...now whether it strengthens
is uncertain at this time.

[wxmann_91]

This is the NAM we're taking about... absolutely the worst model to use in the tropics, and usually not good in verification scores anywhere after the 48-60 hr timeframe.

[ROCK]

This is the NAM we're taking about... absolutely the worst model to use in the tropics, and usually not good in verification scores anywhere after the 48-60 hr timeframe.

I agree. The NAM is a horrible model to predict tropical genesis. With that said, it did do a good job with Alberto last year.....Now if the GFS / Euro jumps on board then I would look at it more closely. Shear is quite high down there attm....

[Opal storm]

Yeah shear is still going pretty strong down there...

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[Meso]

Cmc also showing something possibly coming north out the Caribbean,almost like the GFS had http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

[wxmann_91]

Cmc also showing something possibly coming north out the Caribbean,almost like the GFS had http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

CMC is the second worst.

The GFS, UKMET, and EURO are the best.

[drezee]

This is the NAM we're taking about... absolutely the worst model to use in the tropics, and usually not good in verification scores anywhere after the 48-60 hr timeframe.

48 hour

[SouthFloridawx]

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmcglb/fcst/archive/07051212/122.phase1.png[/web]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its intersting that this season is starting this early. But overall the cape verde/tropical Atlatnic and most of the western Atlatnic is below normal for sst's. So I expect the systems this season not to develop intill reach 50 west, then move into the caribbean then gulf.

[tailgater]

Could I get a little help from S2kers. I recently had to clear my cpu completely to try and fix a problem(which it didn't) but i didn't save all my wearher sites. Could someone send me some of the better model sites. Thanks in advanceand haooy hunting.

[Thunder44]

The 6z NAM takes the system into Central America:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

From my experience in dealing with models over the last few hurricane seasons, it's best have most models show the something forming, than just one or two, to have any confidence in development. Especially some of the more reliable ones ECMWF, GFS, UKMET.

[skysummit]

Cmc also showing something possibly coming north out the Caribbean,almost like the GFS had http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

CMC is the second worst.

The GFS, UKMET, and EURO are the best.

I don't know...after last year, I'm very much more trustworthy of the Canadian. Each model has its flaws.

[drezee]

thunderstorm activity is increasing:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

30-40 knot shear over the system right now, but decreaseing to the north and west about 10 knots over the last 12-24 hours. As the trough/ULL moves out to sea with our Andrea.