Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#401 Postby Chacor » Sat May 12, 2007 11:44 am

Image
Image

From an hour ago.
0 likes   

Opal storm

#402 Postby Opal storm » Sat May 12, 2007 11:45 am

What's with that blob just E of the Bahamas?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#403 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 12, 2007 11:45 am

A question:

If this is upgraded to tropical depression, and doesn't intensity more than that during its 2nd time around, at the end it will be remembered as STS Andrea even though she was tropical at one point?
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#404 Postby Chacor » Sat May 12, 2007 11:49 am

Good question. See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Subtr ... g_issue.3F

David Roth of the HPC seems to believe they'll call it an STS in the TCR if that happens.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#405 Postby Thunder44 » Sat May 12, 2007 11:54 am

The only things that makes think they won't upgraded this storm this afternoon is that the center partially removed from the convection at this time.
0 likes   

User avatar
Dynamic
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 81
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:11 pm

#406 Postby Dynamic » Sat May 12, 2007 11:58 am

532
WHXX01 KWBC 121318
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1318 UTC SAT MAY 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070512 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070512 1200 070513 0000 070513 1200 070514 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 78.6W 29.5N 77.5W 29.7N 75.6W 29.6N 72.4W
BAMD 29.0N 78.6W 30.0N 77.5W 31.0N 74.9W 31.9N 69.1W
BAMM 29.0N 78.6W 29.8N 77.6W 30.4N 75.5W 30.7N 70.7W
LBAR 29.0N 78.6W 30.2N 77.0W 31.7N 74.4W 33.4N 70.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070514 1200 070515 1200 070516 1200 070517 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.7N 69.3W 26.6N 64.0W 26.4N 63.7W 30.8N 65.0W
BAMD 33.7N 59.8W 43.2N 48.7W 51.4N 42.2W 59.6N 29.6W
BAMM 30.9N 62.7W 37.7N 45.6W 47.1N 40.6W 55.7N 26.1W
LBAR 35.1N 64.0W 39.2N 48.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 43KTS 25KTS 0KTS
DSHP 48KTS 43KTS 25KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.0N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 28.5N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 69DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 28.7N LONM24 = 79.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
0 likes   

curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

#407 Postby curtadams » Sat May 12, 2007 12:00 pm

Thunder44 wrote:The only things that makes think they won't upgraded this storm this afternoon is that the center partially removed from the convection at this time.
That's normal for tropical depressions. If convection is both centered and consistent it doesn't stay a TD. 25 kt Quickscat, clearly closed circulation, active convection, good outflow (and hence good inflow - conservation of matter and all that) - how can you not call this a TD?
0 likes   

User avatar
Dynamic
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 81
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:11 pm

#408 Postby Dynamic » Sat May 12, 2007 12:02 pm

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34063
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#409 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 12, 2007 12:14 pm

Resource issues? Could that be because they budget such for during hurricane season, and have to use 2006 leftovers to fund early flights? (Not that I know, that is just my guess)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146095
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#410 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 12, 2007 12:56 pm

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1005 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST AT 12/1500 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

http://www.hwn.org/data/TWDAT.html


The 2:05 PM EDT Special Feature segment of the TPC discussion.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

#411 Postby cpdaman » Sat May 12, 2007 1:01 pm

are the remnants supposed to move out slowly or fast after tomorrow
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146095
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#412 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 12, 2007 1:32 pm

12/1745 UTC 29.6N 78.2W T1.5/1.5 ANDREA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#413 Postby Thunder44 » Sat May 12, 2007 1:37 pm

18:15 UTC sat image shows a nice flare-up of thunderstorms near the center you can also see this on radar as well:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#414 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 12, 2007 1:55 pm

True, but convection from earlier this morning has fizzled out. If the convection from this morning was still there, combined with this new burst, we would have TD Andrea by now.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#415 Postby Thunder44 » Sat May 12, 2007 2:06 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:True, but convection from earlier this morning has fizzled out. If the convection from this morning was still there, combined with this new burst, we would have TD Andrea by now.


Yes, but this burst is more significant because it's occuring the dinural min rather then during the dinural max. It's indication that the center may be intensifing and sustain convection longer.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#416 Postby Thunder44 » Sat May 12, 2007 2:08 pm

18z Models, no upgrade yet.

618
WHXX01 KWBC 121858
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC SAT MAY 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070512 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070512 1800 070513 0600 070513 1800 070514 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.4N 78.2W 29.7N 77.0W 30.1N 74.4W 29.7N 70.8W
BAMD 29.4N 78.2W 30.6N 76.8W 31.7N 73.2W 32.9N 66.2W
BAMM 29.4N 78.2W 30.2N 77.0W 30.9N 73.6W 31.5N 67.1W
LBAR 29.4N 78.2W 30.4N 76.3W 31.9N 73.3W 33.4N 68.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070514 1800 070515 1800 070516 1800 070517 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 65.9W 27.7N 55.7W 26.7N 52.8W 27.0N 54.6W
BAMD 35.8N 57.3W 45.3N 46.7W 54.1N 36.6W 59.9N 14.6W
BAMM 33.5N 57.7W 41.9N 45.3W 49.7N 40.5W 58.1N 34.9W
LBAR 35.4N 61.7W 42.4N 49.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS
DSHP 49KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.4N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 28.8N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 41DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 28.5N LONM24 = 79.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#417 Postby drezee » Sat May 12, 2007 2:15 pm

Short of this thing forming an eye...the NHC will likely not reclassifiy it to a TS.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#418 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 12, 2007 2:39 pm

Image

If this is not a TD, then the window of opportunity for Andrea to comeback is closing really fast.

Image

Maybe the NHC is looking for something like this!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Scott_inVA
Storm2k Forecaster
Storm2k Forecaster
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 5:44 pm
Location: Lexington, Virginia
Contact:

more model maps...

#419 Postby Scott_inVA » Sat May 12, 2007 2:44 pm

Back with more freebie model maps on "Andrea" at my blog until Ptremium Service resumes later this month:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/blog.htm

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#420 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 12, 2007 2:46 pm

Hurry NHC! Andrea really wants your attention now! If this isn't a TD then I don't know what it is.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ElectricStorm, Kazmit, KeysRedWine, Kludge, pepecool20, RomP, Tak5 and 155 guests