Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

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jaxfladude
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#461 Postby jaxfladude » Sat May 12, 2007 4:53 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:if andrea reforms is a there a landfall possibility? or will she continue her north east heading?


With the trough coming the only way to move is NE.

That B:grrr: :eek:
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#462 Postby AnnularCane » Sat May 12, 2007 4:59 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:if andrea reforms is a there a landfall possibility? or will she continue her north east heading?


With the trough coming the only way to move is NE.

That B:grrr: :eek:



It's not Andrea's fault, it's the trough! :P
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#463 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 12, 2007 5:09 pm

Convection weaking as it is now moving out of the Gulf stream. No upgrade expected, good by Andrea. I can't wait for the post season discussion.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#464 Postby brunota2003 » Sat May 12, 2007 5:13 pm

And that is exactly why the NHC chose to wait. They like to wait 24 hours or so to determine if the flare-up is going to stay around or not, and if trends keep continuing, then it is a very good call by the NHC to wait.
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#465 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 12, 2007 5:32 pm

I expect them to go tropical and add about 12-18 hours of track onto there map in there final discussion on this.
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#466 Postby Opal storm » Sat May 12, 2007 5:36 pm

Damar91 wrote:Sorry guys, I have to be the one the to say it, but I can't even imagine what this place is going to be like when an actual storm that is threatning the CONUS is upon us. Already some of us are bashing the NHC and placing such a high emphesis on a storm that at the very most MIGHT be nice to look at on the way to Europe. :roll:
It's going to be a LONG 6 months. :eek:
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#467 Postby Cyclenall » Sat May 12, 2007 5:38 pm

I can't wait to see the post season report on this system! :lol:

Some input from some mets on this system today would be very helpful and would answer some questions as to why the system is not being declared by the NHC as a TD or even a TS. I'm not happy that recon was cancelled today :Chit: .
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#468 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 12, 2007 5:42 pm

Most Mets would likely agree with us this afternoon. The only thing that maybe they would see that should of stop this from being upgraded was. 1# slight displacement of the Cdo and LLC, 2# not enough time and the nhc likes to wait.
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#469 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 12, 2007 5:47 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Most Mets would likely agree with us this afternoon. The only thing that maybe they would see that should've stopped this from being upgraded was. 1# slight displacement of the Cdo and LLC, 2# not enough time and the nhc likes to wait.


I hadn't looked at it all day, was out biking. Taking a look now, it's just a weak LLC with a central pressure 1010-1012mb. Buoy/ship reports around it indicate 10-15 kts. So with light winds and a rising pressure, there's nothing to "upgrade".
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#470 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 12, 2007 6:11 pm

[font=Georgia]MAKING COMPARISONS:[/font]

Image

Image

Image
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#471 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sat May 12, 2007 6:12 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Most Mets would likely agree with us this afternoon. The only thing that maybe they would see that should of stop this from being upgraded was. 1# slight displacement of the Cdo and LLC, 2# not enough time and the nhc likes to wait.


This thing should never have been upgraded since it was declared a remnant low. I have no idea why everyone is all over this. Not to mention it's going nowhere and heading out to the very cold seas up north. Maybe has 15 mph winds max with gusts. Not even comparable to our thunderstorms here in central florida. Just my opinion though. Great call by the NHC. (Not like it was a call to make though.)
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#472 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 12, 2007 6:21 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Most Mets would likely agree with us this afternoon. The only thing that maybe they would see that should of stop this from being upgraded was. 1# slight displacement of the Cdo and LLC, 2# not enough time and the nhc likes to wait.


This thing should never have been upgraded since it was declared a remnant low. I have no idea why everyone is all over this. Not to mention it's going nowhere and heading out to the very cold seas up north. Maybe has 15 mph winds max with gusts. Not even comparable to our thunderstorms here in central florida. Just my opinion though. Great call by the NHC. (Not like it was a call to make though.)



Yeha the system fall apart again now, but earlier it was looking very good. Look at the pic above to see why. I don't understand why people feel this way.
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#473 Postby cpdaman » Sat May 12, 2007 6:37 pm

pressure on NOAA weather page said 1005 mb at 230 now it says 1007 mb

and 230 discussion said appears more organized , albeit the convection just pulsed down and now NOAA page says 1007

judging by your post it would appear we are all fools for thinking this thing was a legit depression at the minimum


where do you get 1010-1012 from? just wondering?
Last edited by cpdaman on Sat May 12, 2007 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#474 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 12, 2007 6:50 pm

Its falling apart now that its moving over colder water.
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#475 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 12, 2007 7:04 pm

Lets me truthful, even so its moving out of the gulf stream. It still appears to hold some convection. It would not be suprizing when it getting kicked out it gets extratropical dose of energy in becomes the depression/storm the nhc talking about. Not as good as earlier,,,
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#476 Postby Thunder44 » Sat May 12, 2007 7:06 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Most Mets would likely agree with us this afternoon. The only thing that maybe they would see that should of stop this from being upgraded was. 1# slight displacement of the Cdo and LLC, 2# not enough time and the nhc likes to wait.


This thing should never have been upgraded since it was declared a remnant low. I have no idea why everyone is all over this. Not to mention it's going nowhere and heading out to the very cold seas up north. Maybe has 15 mph winds max with gusts. Not even comparable to our thunderstorms here in central florida. Just my opinion though. Great call by the NHC. (Not like it was a call to make though.)


The NHC itself came out with STDS at 11:35am saying it had "become better organzied" and that it could become a TD in the next 24hrs. This followed by another statement in the 2:05pm TWD saying pretty much same thing and the 8:05pm TWD just out says so as well. That's why everyone is all over this. This all could of been resolved if they had got a plane in there as they planned to, but somehow the "resources" weren't there for it.

Now obviously looking at satellite images the system is weakening. But it was more impressive earlier. There weren't any obs that I could in the afternoon, find that could really tell me what the winds were in the most of the convection.
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#477 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 12, 2007 7:12 pm

:uarrow: That was the important ingredient missing today.By not having a plane today flying into the system caused NHC to wait for any ship reports that would show pressure falls and strong winds,but apparently none was near the area.
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#478 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 12, 2007 7:16 pm

Andrea lost her chance. If there was recon, she might have been upgraded, but now she'll fizzle out, and we'll forget about her. On to Barry!
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#479 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat May 12, 2007 7:19 pm

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#480 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat May 12, 2007 7:30 pm

I think Andrea just lost the heating of the day. The last couple days it has gone under diurnal strengthening.
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