Akash and Gonu thread

[Coredesat]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 94.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS DISS-
IPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Chacor]

The following posts refer to INVEST 99B in May 2007

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1N 91.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120514Z TRMM IMAGE
REVEAL CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK BUT IMPROVING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

T1.0 from JTWC



One to watch.

[Chacor]

12/1430 UTC 14.0N 90.2E T1.5/1.5 99B -- Bay of Bengal

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection is pretty strong, with cores showing -80 C temps

[P.K.]

WWIN40 DEMS 121200

I W B 12TH EVE:

THE WELL MARKED LOPAR OVER EC-BAY AND N/H PERSISTS(.) ASSTD CYCIR
EXTNDS UPTO 4.5 KMS ASL(.) THE CCIR OVER HRY AND N/H BET 1.5 AND
3.1 KMS ASL PERSISTS(.) SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE ENE-WARDS(.)THE CYCIR
OVER EC AR-SEA OFF KKA COT BETN 3.1 AND 45 KMS ASL PERSISTS(.) THE
CYCIR EXTNDG UPTO 2.1 KMS ASL OVER N-ORISSA AND ADJ CHTGH PERSISTS(.)
THE CYCIR EXTNDG UPTO 3.1 KMS ASL OVER N-BAY ANDADJ GWB PERSISTS(.)

FORECAST:- RAIN/THRS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT MOST PLACES IN A/N IDS;
AT MANY PLACES IN AR-PR ASSAM/MEGHA NMMT WB/SKM; AT A FEWPLACES IN
ORISSA JHKD BIHAR AND CHTGH AND AT ISOL PLACES IN UP UTCHL HRY PJB
HP J/K E-MP AP T-NADU KKA KERALA AND LKDP(.) MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVIL
OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY(.)

HRW:- HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ISOL PLACES IN
A/N IDS DURING NEXT 36 HRS(.) =


NNNN

[wxmann_91]

I usually don't do detailed analysis, but I was bored today. I really didn't go into too much detail, since every time I do, the storm turns out to be a dud, and I somehow turn out to be way way off.

First of all, model continuity remains above average. Euro has been hinting at something for the past several days. Past 4 runs show some type of TC approaching the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal.









I know of few other good sites besides Dundee (which you have to register, and only has images in 6-hr increments), for water vapor satellite. But here's infrared:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... tloop.html

Interestingly, currently, the system is stationary. Note the trough to the north in the sat loop. I'm somewhat skeptical on how quickly this lifts north, as the trough seems to be having a hard time picking up the system, and there's a nice 500mb ridge to the west. But nevertheless, can't go against model continuity. Since the trough is already near the longitude of where this system, I expect this system to turn sharply to the NE and make landfall somewhere in Myanmar. An alternative scenario though of course is the system going west.

About intensity, given its large size and limited time over water, along with moderate shear, I don't expect a very strong system. But will be a very good soaker, so there could be flooding problems.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting system, the North Indian ocean when they do get systems. Develop very fast.

[Chacor]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 91.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CON-
TINUES TO INDICATE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER, BUT SOME WEAK BANDING IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST-
ERN QUADRANT. A 121141Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
STILL LOCATED ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY, WITH WINDS OF ONLY 10 KTS NEAR
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN INDIA IS IMPROVING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHILE SHEAR IS LOW TO
MODERATE OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

290
TPIO10 KGWC 130024
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE W OF MYANMAR
B. 12/2331Z
C. 14.3N/8
D. 91.0E/0
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0/06HRS (12/2331Z)
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPPED .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT
AGREES.

384
TPIO10 PGTW 130018

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE W OF MYANMAR

B. 12/2330Z

C. 14.3N/8

D. 90.6E/5

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T1.5/1.0/STT: S0.0/06HRS (12/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS UNREPRESENTATIVE DT OF 2.0. PT GIVES 1.5. DBO PT.

DELEO


12/2030 UTC 14.8N 89.8E T1.5/1.5 99B -- Bay of Bengal

[Chacor]

Still T1.5 from AFWA and JTWC, but...

421
WWIO20 KNES 130326

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 VIS/IRDAY
.
MAY 13, 2007 0230Z
.
15.2N 91.6E T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS 99B
.
PAST POSITIONS...14.0N 902E 12/1430Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND ESPECIALLY IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. BANDING OF 3 TO 4 TENTHS
YIELDS A DT OF 2.0.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 13/1000Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
.
NNNN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its possible
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ind ... /track.gif

[Chacor]

That cyclone killed over 138,000 people, so let's hope not.

[Coredesat]

Its possible
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ind ... /track.gif

Definitely not a comparison to be making, plus it's way too early to be making any comparisons at all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its possible
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ind ... /track.gif

Definitely not a comparison to be making, plus it's way too early to be making any comparisons at all.

Worth watching for with the ECMWF tracking it like this.

[HURAKAN]

13/0230 UTC 15.2N 91.6E T2.0/2.0 99B -- Bay of Bengal





Continues to develop.

[wxmann_91]

This is already to the east of the longitude of Bangladesh, and the trough is already at the longitude of Bangladesh, so (hopefully) this should not make landfall there, despite earlier threatening progs from the ECMWF.

[P.K.]

BOB 0702 has formed.

BOB 02/2007/01 Dated : 13th May, 2007

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

Yesterday’s low pressure area over east central Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today the 13th May 2007 near Lat.15.00N and Long 90.50E about 400 kms northwest of Port Blair. The System is likely to intensify further and move in a northerly direction.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs.

The squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during the same period.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen of these islands are advised not to venture into the sea.

[Alacane2]

TCFA Issued

WTIO21 PGTW 131130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131121Z MAY 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 175 NM RADIUS OF 15.1N 91.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 90.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
91.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 90.8E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130419Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN INDIA IS IMPROVING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHILE SHEAR IS LOW TO
MODERATE OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141130Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Sure organised in a hurry...

[Chacor]

T2.0 from JTWC and AFWA, T2.5 from SAB.