Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[drezee]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... XNT20.KNHC

A SFC
TROUGH FROM THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EASTERN CUBA
CROSSING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. MOST OF THE
SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY IS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING E
CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH ELY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE THAT INVADES THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If shear lowers enough and the low separates
it could get stormy...now I do not expect anything
tropical...but some heavy thunderstorms
over the Caribbean may be possible

[Meso]

78 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp13.png
144 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp24.png

Move's north out of the Caribbean

[Thunder44]

Most of the OP models this morning are developing a system in the NW Carribean or over the Bahamas, either Thursday or Friday and they taking and move it northeastward and intensifies it:


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHE ... kloop.html

The 0z CMC long-range is most interestingas really it takes well east of NC coast on Sunday, before turn it around to the WNW and making landfall in the Delmarva region on Wed:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

The CMC is not good to trust. But whatever system forms and tracks it could have sub-tropical charteristics, especially if it originates out the NW Carribean.

[drezee]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
11N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TOWARDS JAMAICA
NEAR 18N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
77W-80W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA
E OF 73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN E/W RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA
WITH AXIS ALONG 10N. WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Shear is low down thee and it has been decreasing over the past 24 hrs.

[MusicCityMan]

Could we see Barry b4 June 1? and btw.. for those of u that say the "season hasn't started yet".. Technically, yes it has because we have already had Andrea.. even though June 1st isn't 4 16 days..

[B'hamBlazer]

To me, the conditions and set-up for a Carribbean tropical system look increasingly more favorable. The SST are more than favorable for development. I don't know that there's great potential for this to become a major hurricane this early, but I would say a smaller hurricane could be possible if the dynamics go as some of the models have forecast.

[HURAKAN]

When I see the low beginning to develop convection, then I will begin to think of the possibilities.

['CaneFreak]

And again, the same terms keep coming up....SSTS, THCP, etc. Its like a long epic novel that plays the same old story over and over. HOW MANY TIMES MUST I COME ON HERE AND SAY, "ITS NOT ALL ABOUT SSTS, MOISTURE, AND THCP?!!!!" UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS PROBABLY MORE IMPORTANT THAN ALL THESE THINGS COMBINED. So STOP galavanting on and on and on and on....about heat and SSTS and etc....I still dont see any posts about where the shear is below normal. Therefore, until these posts of decreased shear come about, I feel I have nothing to freakin worry about. Stop the comparisons to 2005 and lets just get prepared.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is forming, lets see what happens.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

And again, the same terms keep coming up....SSTS, THCP, etc. Its like a long epic novel that plays the same old story over and over. HOW MANY TIMES MUST I COME ON HERE AND SAY, "ITS NOT ALL ABOUT SSTS, MOISTURE, AND THCP?!!!!" UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS PROBABLY MORE IMPORTANT THAN ALL THESE THINGS COMBINED. So STOP galavanting on and on and on and on....about heat and SSTS and etc....I still dont see any posts about where the shear is below normal. Therefore, until these posts of decreased shear come about, I feel I have nothing to freakin worry about. Stop the comparisons to 2005 and lets just get prepared.

Does the action of looking at previous posts come in order?

As you can see in the shear maps above, windshear is 20 knots or below @ 11N 79W and over the last 24 hours it has been decreasing. Of course everyone knows that shear is one of the most important components. That's the first thing that we did when pre-Andrea thread was initiated.

pre-Andrea Shear Map

[Berwick Bay]

On the water vapor image here, you can see that shear is low around 11 n 79 w that is where the low pressure is centered. Not coincidentally there is upper level high pressure (good for development) over the low (therefore low shear there). But the thunderstorm development right now is further north along the trough toward Jamaica. Shear remains high here. Still very little T-Storm development near the low center down at 11n. Check out the water vapor loop here. Just a few clouds near the low center. Of course things could change. Here's the loop.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1805.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

In the 18 UTC map the low is further closer to the Colombian coast.



I still not giving my vote to Barry in this situation. No thunderstorm over the low pressure and following the 12 UTC & 18 UTC maps, moving closer to land. We know from previous cyclones that getting closer to SA means injesting dry air.

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS MAINLY N FROM THE LOW
TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS/CENTRAL CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA WHERE SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. NLY WINDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TOMORROW AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS N OF THE AREA. ALOFT...AN E/W RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA/CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC WITH AXIS ALONG 10N.
WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A CLOSED LOW TO FORM
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON WED...THEN
MOVES IT N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ON THU. WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY DETERMINATION AS TO WHETHER THIS SCENARIO
OCCURS.

http://www.hwn.org/data/TWDAT.html

8:05 PM EDT Discussion of Caribbean.

[Bluefrog]

somebody just freaking shoot me please ........

[Chacor]

TAFB have started issuing their TC marine graphics on May 15. No formation expected within 72h.

[drezee]

If that shear can relax, we will at least have something to look at. Trough can be clearly seen on the visibles. It is sharpening as well.

[tailgater]

TAFB forecast 24hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
48 hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
72 hrs,
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Sure looks like some thing to watch. I think I see some weak turning down there now Between Jamaica and Honduras

[drezee]

That was the point I was making about the trough getting sharper. Those little swirls are typically transient in the early stages of development.