Akash and Gonu thread

[HURAKAN]

VERY DEEP Depression.

Seed it with Prozac.

These categories are depressing!!!

[wxmann_91]

please miss Bengladesh

the ONLY good that can come out of this storm as this will almost certainly undergo RI

If RI means rapid intensification, how is that good?

And yes, due to its massive size, it's almost certainly going to kill hundreds if not thousands if it hits Bangladesh.

Here's a map:
http://banglapedia.search.com.bd/Maps/MC_0397.GIF

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official product/forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to offical products.

First % chance of 01B strengthening:

Slowly: 0.5%
Steadily: 2%
Quickly: 8%
Rapidly: 80%
Very Rapidly: 8%
Record Strengthening Rate: 1.5%

(Yes, it's the first % chance comparison I've ever done when all the numbers add up to 100%)

This is only for the next 6-12 hours as wind shear may change after that point.

[Chacor]

JTWC forecast takes it to 75 kt before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

CDO developing.

[Chacor]

HUGE system...

[Typhoon Hunter]

This cyclone is in such a dangerous position and it's track is very ominous.

As Derek says let's pray this keeps away from low lying Bangladesh/Indian coastline and it doesn't rapidly intensify. I hope this comes ashore as nothing more than a tropical storm with minimal damage. Here's the latest sat interpretation in my inbox:

332
TPIO10 KGWC 140045
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (W OF MYANMAR)
B. 13/2331Z (26)
C. 16.6N/3
D. 91.3E/3
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS/STT: D0.5/06HRS -13/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A STRONG DT OF 3.0. FT BASED
ON DT. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 3.5.

BROWN/SCHAEFER

[Chacor]

It's bombing... T3.0 from AFWA and T3.5 from JTWC and SAB.

[MiamiensisWx]

This cyclone is in such a dangerous position and it's track is very ominous.

As Derek says let's pray this keeps away from low lying Bangladesh/Indian coastline and it doesn't rapidly intensify. I hope this comes ashore as nothing more than a tropical storm with minimal damage.

Actually larger systems have featured the largest and most extensive surges in the region. The setup is similar to the Gulf coast of the United States. You have large systems which rapidly intensify, undergo windfield expansion, and weaken before landfall (as they interact with drier air and shear). Recall Katrina, Ivan, Dennis, and Opal (and magnify the surge). This is much more disastrous than an intensifying tropical cyclone. For example many intensifying tropical cyclones feature smaller windfields (and smaller surges and fewer deaths). In addition, larger tropical cyclones can bring tropical storm-force winds (one-minute averages) over a broader region. In addition, large size and monsoonal trough interaction can bring heavier rainfall totals (and associated flooding concerns). In fact one of the most intense tropical cyclones that made landfall in the region (Cyclone Five in 1999) killed relatively few people.

In this region, the surges are much higher due to better shoaling conditions and low-lying topography. Surges of 35 feet can occur along the Ganges Delta. On a side note, the system apparently continues to intensify.

[wxmann_91]

Miami,

Cyclone 05B in 1999 killed nearly 10,000 people in India.

I agree that this is big and bad, but due to it's size, it may not become stronger than Cat 1 as it draws in some dry continental air (you can see it struggle with that now as part of the center's exposed, and convection has waned a bit). Of course, if it hits Bangladesh even at that strength, it will kill hundreds of people still.

[MiamiensisWx]

Miami,

Cyclone 05B in 1999 killed nearly 10,000 people in India.

I agree that this is big and bad, but due to it's size, it may not become stronger than Cat 1 as it draws in some dry continental air (you can see it struggle with that now as part of the center's exposed, and convection has waned a bit). Of course, if it hits Bangladesh even at that strength, it will kill hundreds of people still.

Your point about 5-B is taken. That's certainly true. The key word is "relative". When you compare the death toll (5-B in 1999) to other tropical cyclones in the region (1876 and 1970), the toll is relatively low. Many other systems which hit the region killed more than 100,000 people.

[wxmann_91]

Miami,

Cyclone 05B in 1999 killed nearly 10,000 people in India.

I agree that this is big and bad, but due to it's size, it may not become stronger than Cat 1 as it draws in some dry continental air (you can see it struggle with that now as part of the center's exposed, and convection has waned a bit). Of course, if it hits Bangladesh even at that strength, it will kill hundreds of people still.

Your point about 5-B is taken. That's certainly true. The key word is "relative". When you compare the death toll (5-B in 1999) to other tropical cyclones in the region (1876 and 1970), the toll is relatively low. Many other systems which hit the region killed more than 100,000 people.

OK, I see now.

FWIW, here's a list of cyclones in Bangladesh: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_c ... Bangladesh

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official product/forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to offical products.


The last 6 hours hours the system has become much better organized, in fact has formed a CDO with 85h data showing a southern eyewall already have formed. The system has also went more westward then was expected; so this system sould head overall to the north through out the next 24-36 hours. I think this has a fair chance for strengthing into a very powerful cyclone. I would say 55 knots now.

0 55 knots
6 65 knots
12 75 knots
24 90 knots
36 70 knots inland
48 40 knots

[wxmann_91]

The storm has really accelerated now... looks like it'll be making landfall in about 24 hr.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Southern eyewall has formed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

[Chacor]

[Normandy]

?Bombing?

It looks decent at best

[Chacor]

?Bombing?

It looks decent at best

Went from T2.0 to T3.5 in 24 hours.

Code: Select all

   DATE/TIME     LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION        STORM
  14/0230 UTC    17.2N   91.8E    T3.5/3.5              01B
  13/2030 UTC    16.4N   91.3E    T2.5/2.5              01B
  13/1430 UTC    15.1N   91.0E    T2.5/2.5              99B
  13/0830 UTC    15.5N   91.4E    T2.0/2.0              99B
  13/0230 UTC    15.2N   91.6E    T2.0/2.0              99B
  12/2030 UTC    14.8N   89.8E    T1.5/1.5              99B
  12/1430 UTC    14.0N   90.2E    T1.5/1.5              99B
  12/0830 UTC    14.6N   91.1E    T1.0/1.0              99B

[Normandy]

?Bombing?

It looks decent at best

Went from T2.0 to T3.5 in 24 hours.

Code: Select all

   DATE/TIME     LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION        STORM
  14/0230 UTC    17.2N   91.8E    T3.5/3.5              01B
  13/2030 UTC    16.4N   91.3E    T2.5/2.5              01B
  13/1430 UTC    15.1N   91.0E    T2.5/2.5              99B
  13/0830 UTC    15.5N   91.4E    T2.0/2.0              99B
  13/0230 UTC    15.2N   91.6E    T2.0/2.0              99B
  12/2030 UTC    14.8N   89.8E    T1.5/1.5              99B
  12/1430 UTC    14.0N   90.2E    T1.5/1.5              99B
  12/0830 UTC    14.6N   91.1E    T1.0/1.0              99B

I wouldt call that bombing, thats just stregthening.