Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

boca · #61 Postby **boca** » Tue May 15, 2007 10:43 am

Looks like some convection around Jamaica,lets see if it hangs around.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

#62 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue May 15, 2007 10:55 am

DON'T START PULLING YOUR HAIRS AND MAKING ALL KIND OF PREDICTIONS!!!

48 hrs.

72 hrs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml

#63 Postby **drezee** » Tue May 15, 2007 2:48 pm

Y'all ought to be glad it is May! Visible Loop is showing a highly sheared, but seemingly developing area of low pressure near 17N 83W.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

#64 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue May 15, 2007 2:52 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

This station is very close to the south of the convection and it's showing easterly winds, meaning, no circulation at the surface. At least just yet.

canegrl04 · #65 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue May 15, 2007 3:03 pm

Lets see if this thing has a shot at becoming Barry . The board gets pretty boring in the long weeks leading up to the start of the season.Anything that developes early would be exciting 8-)

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 15, 2007 3:09 pm

FRONTAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
AS A RESULT OF THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES ON
DAY 3...ALL MODELS FORECAST BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SW
ATL...OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS COAST. THE GFS...LIKE
YESTERDAY...STILL BRINGS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST
INTO THE BAHAMAS BY DAY 3...WITH AN ORIGIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ON DAYS 2. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE KEYS
IN ON THE BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON DAY
3...WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER...WHILE
THE UKMET IS THE SLOWEST OF THE BUNCH. NEARLY HALF OF THE 12Z
NCEP ENS MEMBERS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC
CONSENSUS...WHILE THE OTHER HALF WAS SLOWER LIKE THE UKMET. GIVEN
THAT WE ARE FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
DAY 3...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE MORE NORTHWARD CAMP OF
SOLNS...GIVEN BY THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC...IS THE WAY TO GO.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

Discussion about the model scenarios by HPC.

#67 Postby **AnnularCane** » Tue May 15, 2007 3:11 pm

Barry, you need to wait till at least June, because a second May storm would cause the media to go nuts.

On the other hand, this board HAS been a bit slow since Andrea died...

MusicCityMan · #68 Postby **MusicCityMan** » Tue May 15, 2007 7:07 pm

I want Barry.. or at least TD 2.. only b cuz I WANT SOME RAIN!

canegrl04 · #69 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue May 15, 2007 8:58 pm

MusicCityMan wrote:I want Barry.. or at least TD 2.. only b cuz I WANT SOME RAIN!

Florida is beginning to resemble Australia.You guys really need the rain in a bad way :eek:

jaxfladude · #70 Postby **jaxfladude** » Tue May 15, 2007 10:56 pm

canegrl04 wrote:
MusicCityMan wrote:I want Barry.. or at least TD 2.. only b cuz I WANT SOME RAIN!

Florida is beginning to resemble Australia.You guys really need the rain in a bad way

Like 1998 bad?
I fear how bad the rains will come in the form of.... :eek:

#71 Postby **NDG** » Wed May 16, 2007 10:13 am

All models: UKMET, CMC, EMCWF, NOGAPS, & GFS, sudgest on low pressure development early next week in the SW Caribbean, the reliable Euro even has it becoming a tropical storm, with a pressure under 1000 MB:

Scorpion · #72 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed May 16, 2007 11:44 am

I am very surprised the Euro showed this... that means it has a very good chance of occurring now

#73 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed May 16, 2007 11:48 am

I agree.. The EURO is VERY good about picking up on storms.

Thunder44 · #74 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed May 16, 2007 12:12 pm

Scorpion wrote:I am very surprised the Euro showed this... that means it has a very good chance of occurring now

But not this week as the NAM and GFS was showning.

#75 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed May 16, 2007 12:35 pm

Where does it show it hitting?

#76 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 16, 2007 12:42 pm

12z GFS 5/16/07 Long Range Loop

:uarrow:

Check the 12z GFS by the end of this loop.

#77 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed May 16, 2007 12:54 pm

wow. but, as the other topic says, for entertainment only!

#78 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 16, 2007 1:04 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:wow. but, as the other topic says, for entertainment only!

It's a computer model projection into the future, therefore, we know that there could be an element of truth to it but it could also be just a miscalculation by the model. So, it's for entertainment mainly until it verifies, if so.

#79 Postby **drezee** » Wed May 16, 2007 1:40 pm

Low level turning is noted in the NW Caribbean.

Buoys and ships also show this at low levels:

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/caribplot.php

#80 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:31 pm

Want a hurricane!! Well, Euro thinks so by day 8-10. That puppy is moving pretty much due NORTH at that time.

Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

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