AUS: Offseason ex-TC Pierre (threatening QLD as Trop Low)

Chacor · #1 Postby **Chacor** » Tue May 15, 2007 7:42 pm

WOAU01 ABRF 160029
IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0029 UTC 16 May 2007

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low 1000 hPa centred at 160000UTC within 20 nautical miles
of 10.3S 157.2E and moving west southwest at 5 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds increasing to 30/40 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre
in the next 12 hours. Seas rising very rough.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email
to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through
Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
[hr]
The season ended last month technically.

Chacor · #2 Postby **Chacor** » Tue May 15, 2007 7:43 pm

544
TPPS10 PGTW 160013

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF SOLOMONS

B. 15/2330Z

C. 10.5S/6

D. 157.2E/5

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/STT: D0.5/06HRS (15/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF A .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

SCANLIN

[hr]
201
TPPS10 KGWC 160032
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF SOLOMONS
B. 15/2331Z (28)
C. 10.9S/0
D. 157.6E/9
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -15/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

LAURENTI

Chacor · #3 Postby **Chacor** » Tue May 15, 2007 9:12 pm

671
AXAU21 ABRF 160111
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0111 UTC 16/05/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Tropical Low
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.3S
Longitude: 157.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [258 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 10.4S 156.7E: 30 [55]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 17/0000: 10.5S 156.2E: : 040 [075]: 995
+36: 17/1200: 10.6S 155.8E: : 040 [075]: 995
+48: 18/0000: 10.7S 155.3E: : 040 [075]: 995
+60: 18/1200: 10.8S 154.8E: : 040 [075]: 995
+72: 19/0000: 10.9S 154.3E: : 040 [075]: 995
REMARKS: Rapidly developing midget system. Low shear environment under upper
ridge. Expect deep layer easterlies to increase slightly to the south of the
system in the next 24 hours.

==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[hr]

792
WTPS21 PGTW 160200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 160151Z MAY 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 10.4S 157.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 157.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 157.3E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 170NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT,
HOWEVER, THE LLCC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED
OVER THE LLCC AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CORAL SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOL-
IDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 170200Z.//

Next name is "Pierre".

Chacor · #4 Postby **Chacor** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:12 am

866
AXAU21 ABRF 160639
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0639 UTC 16/05/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Tropical Low
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.9S
Longitude: 157.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: Southwest [220 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [60 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [80 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1800: 11.3S 156.3E: 30 [55]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 17/0600: 11.6S 155.3E: 045 [085]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 17/1800: 11.7S 154.1E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 988
+48: 18/0600: 11.7S 152.8E: : 060 [110]: 987
+60: 18/1800: 11.9S 151.5E: : 060 [110]: 987
+72: 19/0600: 11.9S 150.2E: : 060 [110]: 987
REMARKS: Midget system has continued to develop against the diurnal trend.
Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.55, giving T2.5, MET and PAT agree. Low
shear environment under upper ridge. Expect deep layer easterlies to increase
slightly to the south of the system in the next 12 hours, indicating a slight
turn to the west.

==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

#5 Postby **P.K.** » Wed May 16, 2007 1:37 pm

Not much change.

AXAU21 ABRF 161822
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1822 UTC 16/05/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Tropical Low
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 10.4S
Longitude: 157.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: Southwest [220 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [60 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [80 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0600: 10.7S 156.0E: 30 [55]: 045 [085]: 992
+24: 17/1800: 10.8S 155.0E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 988
+36: 18/0600: 10.8S 153.0E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 982
+48: 18/1800: 11.0S 151.5E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 980
+60: 19/0600: 11.0S 150.1E: 070 [130]: 060 [110]: 980
+72: 19/1800: 11.0S 148.7E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 980
REMARKS: Convection has increased overnight around system with rotation evident
from CBs near the centre. CIMMS winds indicate low shear so good potential for
development. Dvorak DT based on tight curved band wrap of 0.5, giving T2.5.

==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 16, 2007 3:06 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1815 UTC 16 May 2007

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low 998 hPa was centred within 20 nautical miles of
10.4 S 157.0 E and almost stationary.
The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 6 to
12 hours and move towards the west.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds increasing to a maximum 40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours, and
to 50 knots within the next 24 hours.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 17 May: Within 35 nautical miles of 10.6 south 156.0 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 17 May: Within 45 nautical miles of 10.8 south 155.0 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 16 May 2007.
WEATHER BRISBANE

HurricaneBill · #7 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Wed May 16, 2007 9:41 pm

Are the TD in the WPAC and this system twin cyclones?

Coredesat · #8 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed May 16, 2007 10:13 pm

Probably not, but we have Tropical Cyclone Pierre:

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11am EST on Thursday the 17th of May 2007

At 10 am EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Pierre [Category 1] with central
pressure 995 hPa was located over the Solomon sea near latitude 10.7 south,
longitude 156.6 east. The cyclone is moving west at about 8 kilometres per hour
and should maintain a similar track and gradually intensify over the next 24
hours.

Cyclone Pierre is not expected to influence Queensland's weather in the next few
days.

The next bulletin will be issued by 5 pm EST today.

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 16, 2007 10:19 pm

[web]http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65001.gif?1179364808264[/web]

Queensland, get ready for Pierre.

Coredesat · #10 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed May 16, 2007 10:38 pm

That's an interesting forecast track, Papua New Guinea could see some effects from Pierre.

AussieMark · #11 Postby **AussieMark** » Thu May 17, 2007 3:44 am

if landfall was to happen the further north the better. Most the populated centers are south of Cairns

#12 Postby **P.K.** » Thu May 17, 2007 6:51 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0656 UTC 17/05/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Pierre
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 156.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (260 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) central pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (37 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 17/1800: 10.9S 155.2E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 990
+24: 18/0600: 11.3S 154.0E: 070 (130): 055 (100): 985
+36: 18/1800: 11.7S 153.2E: 075 (140): 060 (110): 980
+48: 19/0600: 11.8S 152.5E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 980
REMARKS: Dvorak DT based on tight curved band wrap of 0.5 giving T2.5, CI held
at 3.0. Robust low level centre remains, although organisation of deep
convection has decreased slightly in the past 6 hours, consistent with the
diurnal trend. System remains in a relatively favourable environment for
development, with weak shear and good outflow to the north and south.

Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1300 UTC by Brisbane TCWC.

Chacor · #13 Postby **Chacor** » Thu May 17, 2007 9:07 am

808
WCNG01 AYPY 170800
AYPY SIGMET NR01 VALID 170800/171200 AYPY
MORESBY FIR AT 170600 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE PIERRE CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 994 HPA WAS CENTERED NEAR 10.6S 156.3E. MOV 2/03KT. INSTF.
FORECAST POSITION
171800 UTC 10.8S 155.5E WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 HPA.
WINDS OF 55 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE.

Chacor · #14 Postby **Chacor** » Thu May 17, 2007 9:11 am

Hmm, interestingly: Pierre is about to enter the area of responsibility of TCWC Port Moresby (down to 12S once west of 155E).

Tropical Cyclone: Pierre
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 155.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (260 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) central pressure: 992 hPa

Coredesat · #15 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu May 17, 2007 5:41 pm

This is all I can find:

222
WCNG01 AYPY 172000
AYPY SIGMET NR04 VALID 172000/182400 AYPY
MORESBY FIR AT 171800Z TROPICAL CYCLONE PIERRE CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 992 HPA WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.0S 154.7E MOVING WSW AT 06 KNOTS.
WINDS OF 60 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE. INTENSIFYING.
FORECAST POSITION AT 180600Z 11.3S 153.3E WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
988 HPA. WINDS OF 60KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #16 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu May 17, 2007 5:48 pm

Are offseason storms starting to become the norm?
Well it is surprising to see this storm category one

wxmann_91 · #17 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu May 17, 2007 6:18 pm

Cat 1 in Australia is equivalent to TS here. But this is interesting considering May there is like November here. SST's are marginal and there's quite a bit of shear from competing convection in the ITCZ and over land. Interesting though, because I suspect this originated from the same westerly wind burst that initiated convection that has developed into Yutu.

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 17, 2007 6:42 pm

Chacor · #19 Postby **Chacor** » Fri May 18, 2007 3:32 am

Pierre has now weakened quite a bit. Recent advisories indicate a secondary low near Pierre. Maybe that's to blame, but Pierre looks quite poor on satellite right now.

#20 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 18, 2007 6:47 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0843 UTC 18 May 2007

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 180600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Pierre 996 hPa was centred within 40 nautical
miles of 10.5 S 153.5 E moving west at 6 knots. A low pressure system with a
central pressure of 1002 hPa was located near 7.5 S 152.5E and was near
stationary.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre of Cyclone Pierre and within 60 nautical
miles in the northern semicircle of the Low.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/40 knots around Pierre and SW to NW winds to 35 knots north
of the low.
Maximum winds within 30 nautical miles of the centre of Cyclone Pierre
increasing to 40 knots in the next 12 hours.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 18 May: Within 50 nautical miles of 10.7 south 152.1 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 19 May: Within 60 nautical miles of 10.9 south 151.0 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 18 May 2007.
WEATHER BRISBANE

AUS: Offseason ex-TC Pierre (threatening QLD as Trop Low)

AUS: Offseason ex-TC Pierre (threatening QLD as Trop Low)

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