Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[JonathanBelles]

What site do you use for the euro? Due NORTH? gulp thats my way. Im not ready for another hurricane.

[Thunder44]

Low level turning is noted in the NW Caribbean.

Buoys and ships also show this at low levels:

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/caribplot.php

I can barely make it out visible imagery. But it shows up better at this site http://www.oceanweather.com/data/



According to the isobars shown, there may be low developing off near the Cayman Islands as of 18z. But it's very weak, lowest pressure I can find is near 1012mb. Shear is still high, between 40-60kts

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[NDG]

EMCWF's 00z & 12z runs have a good evidence of cyclonic development (Barry) in the southcentral Caribbean, since this model is usually the last one to show development. All other models like the CMC, UKMET & NOGAPS are still indicating development in the same general timing and area except for the gfs which has a low developing earlier than that and a low developing much closer to C.A. and tracking it westward into the Pacific. The strengthening of this storm forecasted by the euro at this time looks to be legit, since upper level conditions are expected to improve in the Caribbean by next week. We just have to wait and see a couple of more days if the models continue on the same page or not and start seeing any actual development.

[HURAKAN]

EMCWF's 00z & 12z runs have a good evidence of cyclonic development (Barry) in the southcentral Caribbean, since this model is usually the last one to show development. All other models like the CMC, UKMET & NOGAPS are still indicating development in the same general timing and area except for the gfs which has a low developing earlier than that and a low developing much closer to C.A. and tracking it westward into the Pacific. The strengthening of this storm forecasted by the euro at this time looks to be legit, since upper level conditions are expected to improve in the Caribbean by next week. We just have to wait and see a couple of more days if the models continue on the same page or not and start seeing any actual development.

Does it ever end!!!!

[NDG]

EMCWF's 00z & 12z runs have a good evidence of cyclonic development (Barry) in the southcentral Caribbean, since this model is usually the last one to show development. All other models like the CMC, UKMET & NOGAPS are still indicating development in the same general timing and area except for the gfs which has a low developing earlier than that and a low developing much closer to C.A. and tracking it westward into the Pacific. The strengthening of this storm forecasted by the euro at this time looks to be legit, since upper level conditions are expected to improve in the Caribbean by next week. We just have to wait and see a couple of more days if the models continue on the same page or not and start seeing any actual development.

Does it ever end!!!!

But I do have a feeling this has a good chance of actually happening since most models have it developing.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't see any development. Upper-level shear remains strong over most of the Caribbean Sea (in association with a mid-tropospheric trough and upper-level jet). There are insufficient lift mechanisms for broader convective initiation across the area. The low-level shear should briefly decrease as an intense low-level anticyclone builds over the region, but shear could resume as the next shortwave trough affects the Gulf of Mexico. See visible imagery.

In addition, most ensemble guidance indicates cold-core development with the Bahamas system. There is a very weak sfc low near the Cayman Islands, but dynamics and the longwave setup does not support any tropical or subtropical development. Convergence is weak and mid-level dry air continues to inhibit convection. In addition, this is a low-level system. It is associated with a weak trough and boundary.

[flwxwatcher]

Yes,, seeing the EURO so Bullish on Tropical development in the 6+ day Range along with other models showing possible development in the longer range has my interest peaked.. Could be a interesting Memorial Day week-end... Lets see if this all pans out

[skysummit]

Just another close up of the 12z EURO at 240 hours...(that looks to be near hurricane status)

[MiamiensisWx]

I apologize if my previous analysis was a bit brash. The main point illustrates the current lack of conducive parameters for vertical stacking.



Note the following observations.

1) The low-level convergence is weak. Simultaneously, upper-level shear is high. This demonstrates a lack of inflow.

2) This is a low-level low associated with a weak sfc trough.

3) Due to shear, development is not imminent.

[drezee]

I would like for this to happen...but its the 18z NAM...even worse than the 12z...which is even worse than the 0z...which is worse than...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

if this happens...this season is going to be CRAZY!

[Opal storm]

I have a hard time seeing why the models are showing this. Like MiamiensisWx said, there's really nothing going for this to happen.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What Euro shows is scary

What do the Professional Meteorologists think of this situation?

[MGC]

A bit too much shear, typical for this time of the year. Any development will be slow to occur....MGC

[drezee]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
213 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007


THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A LOW FORMING OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS CYCLE AND LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. IT
IS THE ONLY MODEL SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST...MAINTAINING CYCLE TO
CYCLE CONSISTENCY. BUT THUS FAR...EXCEPT FOR THE OPEN TROUGH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A LOW FORMING OVER THE
BASIN. IN THIS REGION...THE NAM AND EUROPEAN MODEL DELAY WARM CORE
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 72-96 HRS...WITH LOW FORMING JUST EAST
OF NICARAGUA. THIS IS TO COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS SUGGESTED BY THE VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES OF THE MJO. SO THE POTENTIAL/RISK REMAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA.

[NDG]

I have a hard time seeing why the models are showing this. Like MiamiensisWx said, there's really nothing going for this to happen.

What MiamiensixWx is refering to is not the same system, area or time of event that the Euro along with the UKMET, NOGAPS & CMC are forecasting. Conditions in the southern Caribbean 5 days from now could be a lot more condusive for development.

[Ivanhater]

local met just mentioned these 2 areas...so news is getting out

[wxmann_91]

Euro is very intriguing. But this is really far (over a week) out. As always, models are always better at catching onto favorable synoptic conditions for development, and not the location or intensity of the development itself. I suspect that as we get closer, that area will either dissapear or move into the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS 5/16/07 Long Range Loop



Above is the 18z GFS run.More entretainment.

[Derek Ortt]

Remember, the models are sovling large systems of PDEs NUMERICALLY

The solutions are NOT exact solutions, because there are NO exact solutions of those systems (at least not yet to the best of my knowlededge).

When solving numerically, there are truncation errors, and these errors grow with time. Thus, several days out, of course any solution will have a large error most of the time.

This does not even address the fact that the mesoscale processes are parameterized. The models CANNOT depict these processes.

This is some of the reason why there are large errors with long range forecasts