Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[drezee]

Interesting, the CMC has it taking a left turn toward the Carolinas at 144.

[Derek Ortt]

Suns and Canes fan?

What sport are you talking about? Where I was raised, the conference finals this year means Anaheim vs Detroit and Buffalo vs Ottawa (not Suns and Canes)

[jaxfladude]

Interesting, the CMC has it taking a left turn toward the Carolinas at 144.

And once again Florida(dry and burning) gets the (mostly)dry shaft.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Interesting, the CMC has it taking a left turn toward the Carolinas at 144.

And once again Florida(dry and burning) gets the (mostly)dry shaft.

I don't think at this point you can say where a storm may wind up if one develops at 144 hours. If a storm were to develop, and follow the CMC path (two big ifs) FLA would only be a couple of hundred miles away from the path depicted and with forecast errors may actually be in the path.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is certainly notable now that other models pick up on the same
feature as Derek mentioned. I will be watching
the Caribbean Carefully.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

An small area of intense convection firing over the West Caribbean
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[flwxwatcher]

The CMC Model has a knack of trying to bring storms North to quickly from what I remember of past years.. The Models are latching on to develpment down in the Caribbean.. Like Derek said there are and will be differing solutions from the Models for the next several runs probably.. It will be interesting to see if they come into some agreement once (if) something does develope

[Meso]

Most of the models have no backed out on this idea...Even the CMC which was aggressive yesterday shows nothing.Just some low pressures in the area,nothing really closed or deep though.

[wxman57]

The European shows no low center developing through 7 days (beside the frontal low already there). Canadian shows nothing at 144 hrs, but it does develop a low in the NW Caribbean in the 9-10 day time frame. Not something I'd put much trust in. NOGAPS shows nothing through 144hrs. The GFS shows only a weak low moving north into Florida in 6-7 days, but it's been developing a low somewhere every run for weeks. Not a model to be trusted.

[AJC3]

The European shows no low center developing through 7 days (beside the frontal low already there). Canadian shows nothing at 144 hrs, but it does develop a low in the NW Caribbean in the 9-10 day time frame. Not something I'd put much trust in. NOGAPS shows nothing through 144hrs. The GFS shows only a weak low moving north into Florida in 6-7 days, but it's been developing a low somewhere every run for weeks. Not a model to be trusted.

Not only that, but 11/12 of the GFS's own ensemble members from 00Z show no support whatsoever for the OP-GFS solution.

[Patrick99]

Funny how everyone's talking about a low that isn't there. I think we should be looking at the EPAC - ITCZ is pretty active, lots of decent little blobs and spins to look at.

[NDG]

The European shows no low center developing through 7 days (beside the frontal low already there). Canadian shows nothing at 144 hrs, but it does develop a low in the NW Caribbean in the 9-10 day time frame. Not something I'd put much trust in. NOGAPS shows nothing through 144hrs. The GFS shows only a weak low moving north into Florida in 6-7 days, but it's been developing a low somewhere every run for weeks. Not a model to be trusted.

What about the area east of Nicaragua, the EMCWF, CMC, UKMET, NOGAPS and the GFS for the last couple of days are developing an area of low pressure between 1000 MB-1005 MB, now within their 5 day range, now most of them track it west towards Nicaragua and into the eastern Pacific, while the GFS (which at this time I have as little trust as compared to the CMC) hangs it around for a couple of more days.

[drezee]

There is a low and it can be seen on visible. at about 12N not 10N

THE ITCZ
IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND SE COSTA
RICA COUPLED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
10N78W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF
13N FROM 75W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

[Thunder44]

There is a low and it can be seen on visible. at about 12N not 10N

THE ITCZ
IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND SE COSTA
RICA COUPLED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
10N78W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF
13N FROM 75W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

The question is really is not whether or not there are any lows forming, but whether the favorable conditions will exist for them to develop into anything. A weak low did form in NW Carribean yesterday, but nothing came out it. Too much shear.

Now where that low is on the Panama coast, shear is lower and there is actually upper-level ridge over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[punkyg]

There is a low and it can be seen on visible. at about 12N not 10N

THE ITCZ
IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND SE COSTA
RICA COUPLED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
10N78W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF
13N FROM 75W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

The question is really is not whether or not there are any lows forming, but whether the favorable conditions will exist for them to develop into anything. A weak low did form in NW Carribean yesterday, but nothing came out it. Too much shear.

Now where that low is on the Panama coast, shear is lower and there is actually upper-level ridge over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Do you think if the conditions stay favorable for atleast 2 days it will have a chance to develope?

[NDG]

There is a low and it can be seen on visible. at about 12N not 10N

THE ITCZ
IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND SE COSTA
RICA COUPLED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
10N78W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF
13N FROM 75W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

The question is really is not whether or not there are any lows forming, but whether the favorable conditions will exist for them to develop into anything. A weak low did form in NW Carribean yesterday, but nothing came out it. Too much shear.

Now where that low is on the Panama coast, shear is lower and there is actually upper-level ridge over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Do you think if the conditions stay favorable for atleast 2 days it will have a chance to develope?

And that's what models are hinting, for a low pressure to form just north of Panama and east of Nicaragua, but not as aggressive as they were coming out a couple of days ago like the Euro. If it does, which has the best chance of happening since all models show it and upper level conditions are much better and forecasted to become even better, it could very well go across C.A. and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, so nothing to worry about for now.

[Thunder44]

There is a low and it can be seen on visible. at about 12N not 10N

THE ITCZ
IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND SE COSTA
RICA COUPLED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
10N78W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF
13N FROM 75W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

The question is really is not whether or not there are any lows forming, but whether the favorable conditions will exist for them to develop into anything. A weak low did form in NW Carribean yesterday, but nothing came out it. Too much shear.

Now where that low is on the Panama coast, shear is lower and there is actually upper-level ridge over it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Do you think if the conditions stay favorable for atleast 2 days it will have a chance to develope?

It's disorganized now, so I think development will be slow.

[punkyg]

Any new models runs come out for the low in the sw carribean?

[Meso]

Heh the Canadian is showing development again in 144 hours,Not very strong,but moving north into Florida...The other models aren't showing it,and it likely won't happen.Will have to see if the other models start picking up on something again..

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the 12z Euro? I am interested to see if the euro has a strong system as it had on the 12z run of May 16.