SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

#201 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon May 14, 2007 5:41 pm

Had some pea-sized hail, still pouring

Extremeweatherguy · #202 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon May 14, 2007 6:16 pm

pretty crazy storm. HUGE raindrops (possibly mixed with a few pieces of hail), frequent 40mph+ wind gusts, minor flooding and very close lightning. In fact, one bolt of lightning struck less than a football field away! It even lit a small grass patch on fire before being put out by the rain. Also, the strong winds were able to bend a small nearby peach tree. Did not expect anything this powerful.

JenBayles · #203 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon May 14, 2007 8:08 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Ok. now I am getting sick of the storms!! We now have 4 games to make up for my kids baseball games!! Hey jen, did you hear about the lightning hitting a tree in Bear Creek Park yesterday??! I was at Target when the storms came through.. Its my fault, on the way to Target, I got the truck washed... Blame it on me!!

I surely did not hear about anything in BC Park, but the tree in the yard behind our house got nailed last week. Based on previous similar experience, that tree will be stone cold dead in right about one year. The people who own the house have no money and a gazillion kids, no money, and have placed a big wooden swing set/ fort underneath said tree. It will probably fall on the house before they'll have it cut down.

Yankeegirl · #204 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon May 14, 2007 8:15 pm

Hey Jen, here is the story off of 11's website...

Four men shocked by lightning

06:54 AM CDT on Monday, May 14, 2007

From 11 News staff reports

Four men were struck by lightning after doing exactly the opposite of what you're supposed to if you get caught in a storm.

the lightning hit the tree.

It happened Sunday at Bear Creek Park as the men were playing soccer.

The men huddled under a tree when the storm blew in, and the lightning bolt that hit the tree shocked all four of them.

Three of them were treated at the hospital and released, but the fourth man remains hospitalized.

Yankeegirl · #205 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon May 14, 2007 8:16 pm

still no rain here today.... maybe tomorrow?

Extremeweatherguy · #206 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon May 14, 2007 9:36 pm

we might see a bit of a hazy day here tomorrow as that plume of smoke over the northern GOM continues westward. Already that plume is creating hazy conditions across FL, southern AL, southern MS, and southern LA. It would make sense that we are likely next in it's path.

southerngale · #207 Postby **southerngale** » Tue May 15, 2007 12:11 am

Yankeegirl wrote:Ok. now I am getting sick of the storms!! We now have 4 games to make up for my kids baseball games!! Hey jen, did you hear about the lightning hitting a tree in Bear Creek Park yesterday??! I was at Target when the storms came through.. Its my fault, on the way to Target, I got the truck washed... Blame it on me!!

Welcome to my world! They're nice at first... then they just won't stop.

southerngale · #208 Postby **southerngale** » Wed May 16, 2007 10:19 am

Man, did we get an intense storm yesterday! I was on the go most of the day and saw there was a chance of rain, but didn't expect it to be that heavy. It started with those GIGANTIC tropical rain drops... you know the ones where a few "drops" can cover your windshield. lol Well, before long, I was driving 20mph on I-10, couldn't see the white lines dividing the lanes and could barely make out the red tail lights of the car in front of me. If I ever said it was coming down in buckets before, I was wrong. I can't even imagine what the rainfall rate per hour was. It was soooo heavy. Within minutes, we had street flooding on the feeder road and on and around College Street. Before the rain got so heavy, I saw a lot of cloud to ground lightning as well and the thunder was even loud in the car, with a CD playing.

This was about 1:30 - 2:00 p.m. and we had lighter rain for a while afterwards. By evening, the sun was shining.

Anyway, there was only a 50% chance of storms yesterday.... same today.

CajunMama · #209 Postby **CajunMama** » Wed May 16, 2007 10:53 am

southerngale wrote:
Yankeegirl wrote:Ok. now I am getting sick of the storms!! We now have 4 games to make up for my kids baseball games!! Hey jen, did you hear about the lightning hitting a tree in Bear Creek Park yesterday??! I was at Target when the storms came through.. Its my fault, on the way to Target, I got the truck washed... Blame it on me!!

Welcome to my world! They're nice at first... then they just won't stop.

I can't get a rainout to save my life! And I'm there 5 nights a week for 5 hours a night.

CajunMama · #210 Postby **CajunMama** » Thu May 17, 2007 8:42 am

Ohmygoshican'tbelieveitisthisbeautifuloutside! 64° on a mid May morning? I'm loving it!

Extremeweatherguy · #211 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu May 17, 2007 2:39 pm

Take a look at this great forecast over the next few days!

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Mornings will even be on the "cool" side for a change.

#212 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu May 17, 2007 4:47 pm

It is nice but I wish it'd heat up again by Saturday. Too cold for the pool....for me at least.

southerngale · #213 Postby **southerngale** » Sun May 20, 2007 10:05 am

There will be plenty of time for the pool, Jason. I'm really looking forward to a lot of swimming myself.

But in the meantime... it sure was nice to be at the ballpark yesterday early afternoon with such mild temps! Sunny, a nice breeze, no sweating, so I could go somewhere after the ballpark without smelling like a pig. It won't last long, but lows in the 50's and highs in the low 80's this late in May is really nice.

Extremeweatherguy · #214 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun May 20, 2007 10:22 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF COOL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS SE
TX THEN THE WEATHER GETS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SFC RIDGE LINGERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE LOWER/MID 50S OVER SE TX. AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WRN ZONES. HAVE
INSERTED 20 POPS SW ZONES WITH PWS FORECAST TO REACH 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTN. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE PLACED 20
POPS IN THE FCST TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STREAMER
SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...PWS OF
1.4-1.6 INCHES EXPECTED WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS MONDAY (30
PCT)...BUT WENT WITH 50 POPS TUESDAY SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM...WEAK UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN MOISTURE LEVELS. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. GFS IS FORECASTING CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG
AND LIS -6 TO -8 TUE AFTN. THE FRONT ORIGINALLY PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
MODELS FORECAST A WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND...AND THIS
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER SE TX. WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMUP IN TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING
CLOSE TO 90 NEXT WEEKEND.

Looks like an interesting week is ahead for the area...

JenBayles · #215 Postby **JenBayles** » Sun May 20, 2007 11:36 am

Bring on the rain! No need for anything heavy or severe, but I'm recovering from another surgery and can't drag the hose around for a few more days. Looking forward to some showers.

Yankeegirl · #216 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun May 20, 2007 6:21 pm

Well they bumped up the rain chances for tomorrow to 50% now... Earlier it was 20%....

JenBayles · #217 Postby **JenBayles** » Sun May 20, 2007 9:00 pm

I saw that earlier today yankee. Just in time for your work week. Doesn't that figure? And don't you have baseball on Tuesday nights? :lol:

Yankeegirl · #218 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun May 20, 2007 10:10 pm

Baseball season is just about over... My younger son is already done, but my older one has quite a few make up games .. I think the next game is May the 30th.... So rain this week is ok... lol... how ya feelin after the surgery? Hope all is well....

Extremeweatherguy · #219 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon May 21, 2007 5:54 am

Looks like the SPC has decided to put us under a slight risk for tomorrow...

#220 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon May 21, 2007 10:10 am

From Jeff:

Large complex of thunderstorms moving across SC TX this morning taking aim at SE TX. Air mass is becoming increasingly moist and unstable with a few showers already developing ahead of the main complex.

Given good heating and continued moistening thunderstorms will develop and track across the region today into this evening. Main threats are heavy rains and lightening although a few hailers and damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out.

Area looks even more unstable Tuesday with a strong short wave to move across. Expect widespread development with pulse severe being a bigger threat.

Daily threat for afternoon and evening seabreeze storms will continue through the weekend. Chances for rain may need to be pushed higher Friday-Sunday as deeper Gulf moisture arrives.

Jeff Lindner

SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

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