Most vulnerable to a major storm?

[MusicCityMan]

Which of the countries' beautiful coastal areas do u believe is the most vulnerable to a major storm?

Galveston? New Orleans? Biloxi? Fla Gulf Coast? Tampa & St Pete? Miami? Jacksonville? The Carolinas? the northeast?

Of course, I may actually have missed 1. lol.. As beautiful as it is.. I fear and hate to see the day a 4 or even a 5 strikes beautiful downtown Tampa or St Pete..

Storm surge would probably flood the downtowns.. The Skyway Bridge would probably collapse or be blown apart due to the winds and waves.. the skyscrapers would be probably destroyed and the buildings right on the Tampa Bay shore in downtown Tampa {IE the hotels and the St Pete Forum} would probably get destroyed by the winds and the surge..

Not to mention the possibility of way too many evacs going all directions and having them be stuck on either I's 4, 75, or 275..

Ok.. Enough doomsday venting lol.. I'm just afraid that it'll happen 1 day.. TWC is doing an "It could happen Tomorrow" on June 3rd about if a major hit Miami, I wish they'd do 1 for the Tampa Bay area..

[Cookiely]

TWC did an excellent program on the Tampa Bay area.

[Stratusxpeye]

Hey let's not say this is ever going to happen! They just had a special on channel 8 with steve jerve. They did some simulations of a 3 like ivan hitting the bay the track charley was suppose to take and it's very scary. Just like in the tampa tribune they did all the what if charley hit here articles.

And you right the evacs that went on for charley were horrible so many peple to get out and there would be huge surge and much damage. Would hate to see a 4 come up the bay. We were saved last year some believe we have a hurricane bubble around us but hopefully it never pops.

[MusicCityMan]

missed it..

[JonathanBelles]

A hurricane in the TBA scares me.

[Ptarmigan]

I fear for Galveston.

[skysummit]

Everybody's going to have their turn. Just be patient

[JonathanBelles]

St. Pete will become an island and imobilized as many of the bridges will be knocked out. Most of Downtown St. Pete will be demolished. The Pier and Baywalk will be gone. All the airports in the area will have damage. Many sky scrappers will be damaged. Strom Surge will be horendous. Anything not destroyed by storm surge will be destroyed by wind. Evacs will be impossible as all the interstates will be pluged. I think 40%+ of Tampa Bay will be under water if a 1921 storm hits Tampa Bay.

[Derek Ortt]

Charley would vave been a wind event had it hit Tampa due to its size. Remember, the areas that it made landfall in are almost as surge prone. I suspect Charley would have weakened considerably before it reached Tampa, given how badly sheared it was when it reached Orlando (the shear really saved Orlando, had Charley not have been sheared, it would have been at least 1 full category higher in the center of Orlando and the damage would have been far greater than the 3 billion that it was)

[wxman57]

Can you define "vulnerable", please? What are you trying to get at?

Most likely to be hit?
Would cause the most dollar damage?
Would cause the greatest loss of life?
Would affect the nation's economy the most?

[Steve]

It would have been us, but there's so much damaged real estate as it is, that I don't think we count anymore. I think it's Miami, Houston, Tampa, Brownsville and the upper Chesapeake (sp?) Bay areas (Va, Ma, DC, etc.). People will pay eventually. And New York City.

/pace picante

Steve

[Jagno]

Steve; Your fair city did count and you DO count. New Orleans experienced massive destruction due to engineering failures in addition to hurricane Katrina's winds. Imagine, as horrible as it might seem, a DIRECT hit as indicated. It could have been alot worse. Yes, you are still vulnerable but somewhat better prepared due to the experience of Katrina. This experience will help people get out, govt to be better prepared but non the less vulnerable in it's stuctures and building codes for all of the existing historical homes and businesses. As beautiful as they are flooding kept them in place.............combine that with CAT 3 winds and these archetectual masterpieces will be airborne to make matter worse. Keep your chin up. We're stil rebuilding too.

[HurricaneBill]

I think eventually a Dora-like situation will occur and a hurricane will make landfall along the Georgia coast.

[TSmith274]

I hate to say it, but yes, New Orleans is the most vulnerable. The worst part of it is that Katrina was not the worst case scenario. There are a few scenarios where almost the entire metro area goes under. Katrina just 40 miles more west would have flooded everything, including the west banks of both Orleans and Jefferson Parishes.

[Beach0612]

I live in Key West - any Cat 4 or 5 would be devastating to this island. It floods bad during a bad thunderstorm. With Wilma, there was a 9 foot storm surge that came down the street. That wasn't even a direct hit. Lets hope this season is a quiet one!

[MusicCityMan]

As beautiful of coastline as Tampa & St Pete as well as Miami are.. I pity if a Cat 3-5 comes up from the SW, slams into Tampa Bay at the perfect angle.. cuts across I-4 and does much more damage to Central Fla then Charley, Frances, or Jeanne did..

At the same time.. If an Andrew or katrina slams downtown Miami, and Ft Lauderdale.. it would also be catastrophic..

The only reason I think Naw'lins is more vulnerable than Tampa is because the levee system stinks.. If ur levees were in better shape.. then Tampa St Pete would be #1 by far in vulnerability..

[jasons2k]

This thread seems to crop every year but I like it every time. There are many factors to consider with such a question, but I think two are key:

1) the size of the metro area impacted
2) the geography

If looking in terms of size/economic losses only, then the choices are:

1) NYC - the largest metro area in the US
2) Houston-Galveston - the 2nd largest metro area on the coast (LA & Chicago do not count for this excercise)
3) Tampa-St. Pete - two downtowns, four airports, etc. located next to water
4) Miami-FLL - the 3rd largest metro area on the coast

I know some of you may be scratching your heads - wondering why not Miami for #3. A little geography does have to come into play in that more people live closer to the water in Tampa than in Miami. Consider this - a direct hit on Tampa means a direct hit on St. Pete & Pinellas county as well. A direct hit near Miami could mean very little for Fort Lauderdale (Andrew).

In terms of geography only:

1) New Orleans - with the levees, canals, etc., this is a no-brainer
2 Tied) Savannah-Charleston - not much better than NOLA, the entire low country would be under water
2 Tied) Tampa-St. Pete - two bays, two peninsulas to worry about. The shape of the bay could deliver a massive surge on downtown Tampa.
4) Houston-Galveston - Galveston Bay would overwash a large region. The top of the bay would have a massive surge similiar to Tampa.

So, why not NYC here? Because even though NYC is on the coast, it is also on the fall line. Most of NYC is well above sea level and out of the surge zone (even Staten Island tops out over 400ft.) Also, the FL Keys were excluded as I wouldn't consider that a metro area, and they face the same fate as virtually any barrier island anywhere along the coast.

So, taking into account the size of the metro area, potential damage in terms of dollars, ecomomic damages, risk of casualties, surge potential, here are my OVERALL rankings for a worst-case disaster:

1) Tampa-St. Pete
2) Houston-Galveston
3) New Orleans
4) NYC
5) Miami-FLL
6) Norfolk/VA Beach

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

How people feel about warnings also play a role in this. Most people in this part of the World are complacent about storms because it has be so long since we've had a major one, where as many people in certain parts of more Southern Locals have had so many false alarms this past few years that they might ignore the big one when it finally comes. I just cringe when I see a reporter interview someone in an evacuation area and they say something like; I wouldn’t evacuate for this, or any other storm, because every time the forecasters say it’ll be a serve storm it isn’t that bad or it doesn’t even hit.

[tropicana]

thats true, hybrid!

with warmer ocean temperatures, that will support stronger storms at much further northern latitudes, it won't be surprising to see another *HURRICANE JUAN* in the Canadian Maritimes in the near future. So people should not grow complacent. But it is only human nature.

-justin-

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Juan was such a small tight storm that outside of Central Nova Scotia and Western PEI no effects were really felt (hell even Beryl caused more widespread rain and wind than Juan, all be it of a much weaker type). Many past hurricanes like Gerda 1969, Ginny 1963, the Hurricane of 1959, and Carol & Edna of 1954 all caused my greater and much more widespread regional damage. Juan was simply pathetic compared to these monsters, but he was a wake up call. The next truly big one is coming, and we all had better be prepared for it.