SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

[JenBayles]

Baseball season is just about over... My younger son is already done, but my older one has quite a few make up games .. I think the next game is May the 30th.... So rain this week is ok... lol... how ya feelin after the surgery? Hope all is well....

I know you've got to be rejoicing that the season is winding down now. No way could I keep up with "kid schedules" these days - can't keep up with my own.

Actually, I'm doing really well so far post-op, and crossing my fingers that this one will last a while. I ate the first solid food I've had in months yesterday, and only had a slight increase in pain, and no nausea. Whoo hoooo! Now I'm torturing myself with thoughts of all the places I want to go pig out at as soon as I can drive again. Methinks Babin's will be a first stop.

Looks like we'll have a good round of storms here shortly, and I'm looking forward to just watching the rain come down. Nothing better than a rainy day when you can't do much of anything.

[Extremeweatherguy]

some good news for those that don't like severe weather...

Our slight-risk has been dropped by the SPC for tomorrow and has been replaced with a "see text" (5%) risk. This means that though a few pulse severe storms are still possible, a large-scale event is no longer being called for. Keep in mind though that they may decide to change it back tomorrow at some point based on what actually plays out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just received a nice soaking downpour here. It didn't last long, but it was just enough to water the lawns and wet the roads.

[vbhoutex]

I just received a nice soaking downpour here. It didn't last long, but it was just enough to water the lawns and wet the roads.

Getting the same in the Galleria area right now. Could have easily been much bumpier this afternoon if there had been some more time tor heating and de-stabilization. Looks like this is going to be the worst of it for us here, but this particular cell appears to be building so those to our N and NNE could get a little more. One clap of thunder so far.

[JenBayles]

As usual, the Bear Creek Dome won out this afternoon. Just a light shower and plenty of clouds. Ah well... will hope for better things tomorrow.

[Yankeegirl]

It just poured down here a little while ago!! No thunder but a good amount of wind and rain... I guess the dome over you jen is strong... lol...

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is a decent line of storms approaching this morning. Wouldn't be surprised if warnings started going up soon (especially with that bowing segment south of Needville).

[web]http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.5391304347826087&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=HGX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=338&map.y=238&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0[/web]

[Yankeegirl]

What is this and where did it come from??? I didnt expect to wake up to thunder this moring!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am still quite surprised that there is no warning with that bowing segment south of Needville! It looks pretty intense and with all the mesocyclone and hail symbols showing up on radar..you know it has to be very strong.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am getting lots of rainfall and minor flooding here so far this morning. I have received about 1" so far (all of that falling in just 30-40 minutes), and more moderate rain looks to be on the way for the next hour or so.

Update: Am at 1.58" of rain now at 9:50am.

**My final total for the day was 1.65"**

[jasons2k]

I got .42" yesterday.

Still haven't checked today's...

[vbhoutex]

We recieved 1.08" in the storm this morning. Surprised me!

[jasons2k]

I received 1.84" yesterday.

[Ptarmigan]

The storm woke me up. Really unexpected. Lots of rain and thunder from this one.

[southerngale]

Severe thunderstorm warnings popping up over here this afternoon. We weren't in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch though. The rain just started here. I'm about to head south where it looks worse.

[srainhoutx]

interesting AFD from HOU/GAL WFO this evening concerning tomorrow...


FXUS64 KHGX 240219
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP ABOUT ALL DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF IT IN THE ZONES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME SCT
ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OFFSHORE & NEAR THE COAST TOWARD MORNING SO
LEFT SOME POPS IN THERE. EAST COAST RIDGE BUILDS A BIT FURTHER WEST
ON THURS. THIS WOULD POINT TO A DECENT POSSIBILITY THAT THE GOOD
PRECIP COVERAGE SEEN IN LOUISIANA TODAY MIGHT BE SEEN IN SE TX
TOMORROW. IN ADDITION...RESPECTABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 80 SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DECENT RAIN CHANCES
ON THURS. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED POPS UP A LITTLE TOMORROW...AND
MIDNIGHT CREW MAY NEED TO UP THEM FURTHER IF 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO. 47

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

.UPDATE...
MADE A COUPLE OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
80S...THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN. ALSO...WITH PW/S NEAR 1.6 AND LI/S
FROM -6 TO -9 AM EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING UNDER THE CAP
THIS MORNING. THE POP FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY GIVE THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX UP IN THE PANHANDLE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA JUST OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

WILL ISSUE UPDATES FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR TODAY.

[southerngale]

Statement as of 2:42 PM CDT on May 24, 2007

... Tropical funnel clouds possible through early afternoon...

At 230 PM... the National Weather Service had received a report of
a funnel cloud south of Highway 105 and 364 west of Beaumont.
National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates developing
showers and thunderstorms near the Sour Lake area extending north
to Village Mills and northeast to Jasper and Newton. Other
showers and and thunderstorms were developing over New Iberia.
This activity was moving northwest at 15 mph.

A very moist and unstable tropical airmass is in place across the
area. Meanwhile... the vertical wind profile over the area is light
and variable. These conditions are favorable for the development of
tropical funnel clouds... especially where rain cooled
boundaries... known as outflow boundaries... and the seabreeze collide.

These tropical funnel clouds are usually short-lived and do not
reach the ground. If The Funnel cloud becomes more severe and
reaches the ground... minor damage may occur.

Stay tuned for later statements and updates on this weather
situation.

Local Storm Report






05/24/2007 0225 PM

Beaumont, Jefferson County.

Funnel cloud, reported by public.


Funnel cloud reported just south of intersection of Hwy
105 and Hwy 364 on northwest side of Beaumont. Funnel
cloud was reported to be 40 ft from reaching the ground.







05/23/2007 0511 PM

1 miles N of Beaumont, Jefferson County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m50.00 mph, reported by broadcast media.


Measured at Lamar University.

[jasons2k]

Good Reminder:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
300 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

...TROPICAL STORM ALLISON...DEADLIEST AND MOST DAMAGING IN US
HISTORY...
...WRITTEN BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HOUSTON
GALVESTON...

TROPICAL STORM ALLISON IN JUNE OF 2001 CAUSED 41 DEATHS AS WELL AS
DAMAGE THAT EXCEEDED 5 BILLION DOLLARS...MAKING ALLISON THE
DEADLIEST AND COSTLIEST TROPICAL STORM IN U.S. HISTORY.
HALF OF ALL OF THE FATALITIES AND MOST OF THE DAMAGE OCCURRED IN
THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

TROPICAL STORM ALLISON WAS BORN EARLY ON THE AFTERNOON OF JUNE 5
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON AFTER HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAD
ALREADY BEEN POSTED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DUE TO TIDES OF 2 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL BEING OBSERVED. TROPICAL STORM ALLISON MADE
LANDFALL DURING THE EVENING OF JUNE 5 AND MOVED STEADILY NORTH
THROUGH HOUSTON DUMPING UP TO A FOOT OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON
WANDERED THROUGH PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS SATURATING THE SOILS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH CONTINUOUS RAINFALL.

ON FRIDAY...JUNE 8...THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON BEGAN TO DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OF HOUSTON AND SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARED DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO EVENTS PUT HARRIS COUNTY IN A PRIME AREA FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

FORECASTS THAT WERE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ADDITIONAL 10 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN. DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT TOOK PLACE THAT
EVENTUALLY DUMPED 10 TO 30 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
HARRIS COUNTY. AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM...BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM
SATURDAY JUNE 9...OVER 1,000,000 PEOPLE WERE SIMULTANEOUSLY IMPACTED
BY THE HEAVY RAIN AND STREET FLOODING. THE DAMAGE STATISTICS ARE
STAGGERING. SOME 59,000 SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES...11,000 APARTMENT
UNITS...AND 2500 MOBILE HOMES WERE FLOODED. TRAGICALLY... 22 PEOPLE
IN THE HOUSTON AREA LOST THEIR LIVES IN THE MAIN EVENT. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIVES LOST WERE PEOPLE EITHER DRIVING OR WALKING IN FLOODED
ROADWAYS. IT WAS DETERMINED THAT IF PEOPLE DID NOT TRAVEL DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE EVENT THEIR CHANCES OF SURVIVAL WERE MUCH GREATER...
EVEN IF THEIR HOME HAD FLOOD WATERS IN IT. THIS IS ANOTHER GREAT
EXAMPLE OF THE EXPRESSION TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM ALLISON TYPE OF
EVENT? MANY PEOPLE COMMENTED THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUCH AN EVENT
OCCURRING AGAIN IS EXTREMELY RARE. HOWEVER...IF YOU LOOK BACK IN
HISTORY YOU CAN FIND SEVERAL EVENTS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE THAT HAVE
OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR AND WITH OUR EVER INCREASING POPULATION

[Yankeegirl]

So is all the mess out in west texas going to make it into the houston area overnight? Its moving really slow!!!