NOLA MET FORECASTS 9 NAMED STORMS

[LSU2001]

Just watched Bob Breck in NOLA say on the news that in 1933 there were 21 storms in 1934 there were 11 storms and in 1935 there were 6 storms. In 2005 27 storms last year half of that and he picked 9 named storms for 2007. He said that the forecasts were hype and hype makes news.

Anyway, I just thought it was more of the Don't Worry-Be Happy attitude that he has been known for in the past few years.
Tim

[Jam151]

"Katrina is no threat. It will go up the east coast of Florida and has no chance of bombing in the Gulf." I will never forget what Bob and other local OCMS said leading up to Kat days prior to landfall. He was so into his "VIPER" model that he totally ignored the REAL model consensus trending west with every run.....not to mention the highly favorable conditions in the Gulf. Sigh.....i'm truly surprised he's still on the air.

and that's the worst seasonal i've ever heard of.

[Extremeweatherguy]

lol. Funny forecast. Hope he is right, but then again I wouldn't bet on it. We already have seen one storm, so I would find it hard to believe there will only be 8 more the rest of this year.

Is this met usually right?

[gginnola]

No. He told us we didn't have anything to worry about for Katrina.

[LSU2001]

lol. Funny forecast. Hope he is right, but then again I wouldn't bet on it. We already have seen one storm, so I would find it hard to believe there will only be 8 more the rest of this year.

Is this met usually right?

Not usually, I seem to remember that a day or two before Katrina he was calling for a Pensacola hit even though the NHC had already moved their forecast much further west.
Tim

[Extremeweatherguy]

No. He told us we didn't have anything to worry about for Katrina.

Oh, well then that is an issue. How does this guy still have a job after saying something like that? Sounds like he should have been booted many years ago.

[LSU2001]

Problem is he was very well respected for many years. It seems that lately he has been more into the "show biz" part of newscasting rather than common sense reporting.
Tim

[gginnola]

They keep him around because he is well-loved by the older generation here in N.O.

[skysummit]

Bob better put that pipe down.

[NDG]

Bob better put that pipe down.

I just don't understand good old Bob, he went from "Watch out!!! Is going to turn our way, don't believe the models" to "We don't have to worry about it turning our way, because the Vipir says so."
He was my favorite Met back in the 80s and 90s, because he would explain the weather and the forecast, not just read out the NWS forecast.

[StormTracker]

Bob better put that pipe down.

Yeah, "don't believe the hype"(or is that, pipe?)!!!

[WeatherEmperor]

Bob better put that pipe down.

whatever it is that he is smokin, I sure want some of that.

<RICKY>

[Category 5]

"Katrina is no threat. It will go up the east coast of Florida and has no chance of bombing in the Gulf.".

That explains everything just fine.

[AnnularCane]

He has been very anti-hype lately, which is fine, but it seems to be at the point of denial. Right now he is constantly talking about this east-coast trough that will sweep all the storms away. Hopefully he is right, but I keep wanting to tell him not to pin his hopes on it too much.

[Bane]

i hope he is right.

[Stormcenter]

No. He told us we didn't have anything to worry about for Katrina.

Oh, well then that is an issue. How does this guy still have a job after saying something like that? Sounds like he should have been booted many years ago.

Well then if that is the case then all of the "mets" who last year (2006)predicted we would have at least 17-20 named storms should be booted along with him.

[Extremeweatherguy]

No. He told us we didn't have anything to worry about for Katrina.

Oh, well then that is an issue. How does this guy still have a job after saying something like that? Sounds like he should have been booted many years ago.

Well then if that is the case then all of the "mets" who last year (2006)predicted we would have at least 17-20 named storms should be booted along with him.

No they shouldn't. They were saying what they were being told by NOAA and various other sources and they had lots of credible evidence to back themselves up. This guy (Bob Breck), though, has very little credible evidence it seems with his prediction. However, this was not really the issue with my above quoted comment though. The reason I said he should have been booted long ago is because supposedly, according to other posters, this guy said that Katrina was no threat to the GOM even though most models were showing the storm moving that way. Also, even later when the storm was forecast to hit the LA/MS area, he was still telling his viewers to expect a Pensacola landfall. That kind of mis-information is ridiculous and television figures should not be allowed to give such false information to the public when they are depending on their forecast. Swaying greatly from NHC guidance could end up being quite damaging to the lives of people who wind up unprepared because they relied on an inaccurate forecast.

In this case though, let's hope he ends up right with his prediction of only 9 storms. Though he doesn't have much to back that up with, if it did play out then it would be another year of happiness for many who still need it along the gulf coast and southeast coast of the United States.

[AnnularCane]

In this case though, let's hope he ends up right with his prediction of only 9 storms. Though he doesn't have much to back that up with, if it did play out then it would be another year of happiness for many who still need it along the gulf coast and southeast coast of the United States.

Not if a lot of those 9 made landfall there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In this case though, let's hope he ends up right with his prediction of only 9 storms. Though he doesn't have much to back that up with, if it did play out then it would be another year of happiness for many who still need it along the gulf coast and southeast coast of the United States.

Not if a lot of those 9 made landfall there.

I am talking about the 2004 and 2005 storms which hit along the GOM and FL. The prediction for 9 storms is being made for this year (2007) by Bob Breck, and has not happened yet. My quoted comment above is of me saying that I hope that he is right about a slow season this year (though I doubt that will actually be the case), so that residents along the gulf and southeast coastlines can have another nice, and generally quiet year.

[ALhurricane]

Just watched Bob Breck in NOLA say on the news that in 1933 there were 21 storms in 1934 there were 11 storms and in 1935 there were 6 storms. In 2005 27 storms last year half of that and he picked 9 named storms for 2007. He said that the forecasts were hype and hype makes news.

Anyway, I just thought it was more of the Don't Worry-Be Happy attitude that he has been known for in the past few years.
Tim

I have no problem if a met comes out with a forecast that is a little different than the consensus, provided he has the scientific data to back it up. To use the method you described above is little more than foolishness. If he can correlate a similar meteorological pattern between those three years and 2005-2007, then again, I would listen. But to simply play the numbers game like that is just silly.