This coming hurricane season=IWIC 2007 Forecast

[boca]

I read from another website on this hurricane season that the weakness that occurred in 2006 around 60W will also be there this year too. They were saying that it will be a weakness there between 2 high pressure areas causing hurricanes to recurve safely out to sea before getting to 60w north of 20n. This is just one prediction I've read. Also they said the same weakness would keep the northern Gulf coast safe. I wasn't sure whether to source the site of which I read this or not. Here's the link.

http://www.independentwx.com/2007

[TampaFl]

Boca, go ahead & post the link. There are so many predictions & forecast out there that have been linked, so why not this one? Would like to know what they base all this on. Might be interesting reading.

[jinftl]

Did this article say what would happen if storms formed in the SW Caribbean or GoM?

[cycloneye]

Time will tell if their forecast about no U.S. Landfalls in 2007 will be correct.

[cpdaman]

yes i read that forecat and then emailed them the following question

what is there basis for forecasting a mid level weakness in the atlantic around 60w and what is there confidence level of this feature enduring this season?

and yes i know they sight a high in the east atlantic and west atlantic this spring but what do these features not move when the seasons change



anyone have any clues? or indications of anything starting to verify

[SaveNola]

Wow, thats quite a bold prediction - it was good reading, very detailed and thought out.

HOWEVER - I decided to research their past predictions, and here is a quote from their 2005 Outlook.

"We do not anticipate much activity in the Gulf of Mexico during 2005."
It also goes on to say
"...and no major hurricanes are forecasted in the Gulf of Mexico this season."

So, while I enjoy reading all forecasts and speculations, for the most part, its anybodys guess.

Link to 2005 Forecast:
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:JO ... cd=1&gl=us

[wjs3]

that's quite a first post, SaveNola. Good research!

WJS3

[Jam151]

yea but it looks like they changed their technique after 05...the methodology they're using now worked pretty well last year it seems

Although there was moderate success in 2003 and 2004, neither the landfall nor total tropical cyclone activity forecasts verified well in 2005. It would have been completely imprudent to apply the same methodology to forthcoming forecasts after it displayed no skill in 2005. Upon an intense post-review, it remains accepted that several, pre-2006, hypothesized correlations were flawed due to misrepresentative statistics. Thus, many of the original forecasting methods were abandoned and a new methodology was introduced in the 2006 Atlantic Basin hurricane season forecast.

Confidence in the new methodology increased leading up to the 2006 season despite the recognized failures of 2005 and forecast discontinuity between IWIC and other respected groups and agencies. The majority of members within the media and meteorological community began to warn that hurricane season 2006 would be hyperactive, and feature significant landfalling tropical cyclones. On the other hand, IWIC did not foresee a season of such hyperactivity and landfalls. Fortunately, the much advertised season of hyperactivity and destructive landfalls never materialized. Rather, the outcome was quite similar to IWIC's expectations.

[mempho]

Wow, thats quite a bold prediction - it was good reading, very detailed and thought out.

HOWEVER - I decided to research their past predictions, and here is a quote from their 2005 Outlook.

"We do not anticipate much activity in the Gulf of Mexico during 2005."
It also goes on to say
"...and no major hurricanes are forecasted in the Gulf of Mexico this season."

So, while I enjoy reading all forecasts and speculations, for the most part, its anybodys guess.

Link to 2005 Forecast:
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:JO ... cd=1&gl=us

2005 Forecast for FL Panhandle through Mississippi:

"If this area does witness tropical cyclone activity, then no more than one tropical storm landfall is supported by our statistics."

Oops

[x-y-no]

yea but it looks like they changed their technique after 05...the methodology they're using now worked pretty well last year it seems

Yeah well, I guess I'd like to see some skill for a few years running before I get too excited.

[cpdaman]

well the "crux" of there forecast concerning the steering of storms seems to be a weakness in the mid levels of the atlantic ridge for the 2007 season.

now this weakness was present in 2006 (i assume because the majority of hurricane recurved one after the other) now it doesn't take a genius to tell there was a different pattern from feb-april/may this year than last) and i myself would like some more imput from others in regards to this potential development

[hurricanehortense]

They also said that Puerto Rico is at high risks for 1-2 hurricane landfalls in 2007.

[Jam151]

yea but it looks like they changed their technique after 05...the methodology they're using now worked pretty well last year it seems

Yeah well, I guess I'd like to see some skill for a few years running before I get too excited.

no disagreement here...it'll be very interesting to see if this turns out right or not.

[JPmia]

sorry about that Cycloneye, this thread title is misleading. I was definitely surprised about their predictions for the U.S. very interesting and they definitely have placed their credibility on the line. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

Doing a landfall forecast in May is a very risky thing but they are betting on it and we will see by the end of the season,if their forecast verifies in terms of no landfalls in the U.S.They are relying on the weakness at 60w to say that recurving will be the norm in 2007 but time will tell.

[cycloneye]

sorry about that Cycloneye, this thread title is misleading. I was definitely surprised about their predictions for the U.S. very interesting and they definitely have placed their credibility on the line. We shall see.

That's ok my friend. boca,I edited the title to include IWIC 2007 forecast.

[mf_dolphin]

Be forewarned, IWIC is run by a couple of teen-agers. While they been doing forecasts for several years they are not professionals. Just so everyone knows the source.

[jaxfladude]

Prediction: Jacksonville, Florida will not be within 200 of the eye of any hurricanes in the Gulf or in the Atlantic....

[Derek Ortt]

there is almost no skill in seasonal track forecasts yet.

Monthly is possible, but we need models to reproduce monthly mean steering flows

[Extremeweatherguy]

No U.S. landfalls? I don't buy it for a second! Even during the "quiet" 2006 season we had 2-3 tropical storm landfalls here in the states, so I highly doubt that the active season they are calling for would feature no landalls. I mean it would be great if they were right, but I just don't see a way you could predict something like that this early on in the season. There are way too many variables that could change between now and November 30th.