Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[drezee]

I will be really interested in the visibles...low level clouds look to be rotating in two palces per shortwave. On ehte NE tip of Honduras and just N of Panama

[Berwick Bay]

Yeah I'm looking for a gradual increase of moisture near the "bend" where Nicaragua meets Honduras. I would just expect to see an increase of moisture there, nothing dramatic for right now. The water vapor imagery is gonna' be pretty important for me during the next couple of days. North of that (NW Carib) conditions are still pretty dry, but I expect to see the whole area "moisten up" as the shear levels decrease in the NW Carib.

[gatorcane]

I will be really interested in the visibles...low level clouds look to be rotating in two palces per shortwave. On ehte NE tip of Honduras and just N of Panama

There is definitely some mid-level rotation now going on down there but it looks like it wants to head towards the EPAC. I'm talking about the area just N of Panama....

Does anybody else see the clouds trying to "wrap"?

[HURRICANELONNY]

IT'S ABOUT TIME SOMEONE THROWS OUT THE GFS:
For early next week...the GFS is trying again to spin up a low
pressure over the western Caribbean Sea and move it towards South
Florida. However...the other long range models do not show this
for early next week...and just keep the ridge of high pressure
over the western Atlantic waters. So will through out the GFS
model for early next week...and keep a breezy easterly winds over
the County Warning Area with the isolated to scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms during the day hours.

[Patrick99]

So where's this Carib. low that generated 12 pages? Miami AFD today featured a little bit of humor about this low.

[HURAKAN]

The topic will continue to get many more pages as long the disturbance is there and the computer models continue hinting possible development either in the Caribbean or in the EPAC. Right now there is not a strong low level circulation at the surface and the disturbance itself is very close or over the isthmus of Panama.

[djones65]

The following is from the NHC website under the Marine Forecast discussion issued around 2 p.m. EDT today:

CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC...
PERSISTENT N-S TROUGH ALONG 82W SHOWS UP WELL IN THIS MORNINGS
QUIKSCAT DATA WITH LIGHT NE WINDS OF 10 KT W OF THE TROUGH AND
ELY WINDS OF 15 KT E OF THE TROUGH. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED
IN LOW CLOUDS AT THE S END OF THE SFC TROUGH. GFS SUGGESTS
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE E PACIFIC
BY LATE THU...HOWEVER IF THE SFC TROUGH AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY
REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THERE.
UKMET APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL/85H
VORTICITY WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ANY EVENT WITH A BROAD AREA
LOWERING PRESSURES WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL WITH 10 KT
MOST AREAS W OF 75W BY SUN. NEAR NORMAL TRADES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

[djones65]

Here is the link to the Marine Weather Discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml?

[HURRICANELONNY]

THIS IS FUNNY:
The GFS does show as
the high moves east our wind flow will become more southeast and this
may advect some of the moisture to our S back over US leading to
an increasing threat of convection. The GFS finally has completely
backed off on the formation of a Caribbean low so now does this
mean it will happen?

[Dynamic]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
ALONG 9N81W 16N83W 23N80W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N.
THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO ALSO BE KICKING OFF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA AND THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS. WHILE NOT ANALYZED CURRENTLY...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY
CONNECTED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS TOWARD HISPANIOLA. SURFACE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEAK OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BECAUSE OF THE
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN...THOUGH
SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NE PACIFIC IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AFTER
PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

[djones65]

Here once again is the Marine Weather Discussion from the NHC at 2:00 a.m. EDT:

CARIBBEAN...
PERSISTENT N-S TROUGH ALONG 83W AND CYCLONIC TURNING CONTINUES
NEAR 11N80W BUT IT IS STILL ABOVE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED PAST 24 HOURS SW CARIBBEAN...THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS THEN TRACKS THE LOW W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO
E PAC INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH DEEPENING IT TO A MINIMAL STORM
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. OTHERWISE NORMAL ELY TRADES EXPECTED.

The Forecaster is NELSON

Here is the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml?

[jaxfladude]

Low Pressure in the S Caribbean Thread Cancel?
Locking thread in........

[tailgater]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
ALONG 9N81W 16N83W 23N80W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N.
THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO ALSO BE KICKING OFF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA AND THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS. WHILE NOT ANALYZED CURRENTLY...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY
CONNECTED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS TOWARD HISPANIOLA. SURFACE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEAK OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BECAUSE OF THE
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN...THOUGH
SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NE PACIFIC IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AFTER
PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

Well there's lots of T-storms in that area, we'll see if breaks away from ITCZ.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/178.jpg
Fairly impressive this morning.
I also think we can lock this thread and start a new 1, something like EPAC system bears watching. I don't know how

[B'hamBlazer]

From what I've seen of the GFS, it's still indicating a possibility of disturbed weather in the GOM in about a week... the 00Z GFS run didn't indicate cyclonic development, but the model seems persistent on the idea of some form of disturbed weather moving into the GOM. The movement and presence of disturbed weather doesn't seem to be uncertain by the GFS... only whether it will be cyclonic or simply a broad low seems to be the only variability in the different runs over the last several days.

[ronjon]

The 18Z NAM indicates low pressure developing off the coast of Columbia and generally moving N-NW over the next 84 hrs. The model has indicated this cyclogenesis now for the last two days. The NAM is generally a poor performer as it generates lots of phantom lows in the SW carribean. I think this time its on to something as I see a small CC low moving off the coast of eastern Panama near 11N-77.5W. It doesn't have much convection now. If the winds aloft relax a bit more, this will be something to watch over the next several days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jaxfladude]

This just............keeps....................persistently...........................................................persistently.......................................

[ronjon]

Convection increasing in the southern Carribean this morning. Strong southerly inflow off the South American continent may aid to form low pressure over the next couple of days. NAM insists on developing a 1008 mb low in the area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[TheRingo]

There is some convection firing in the area now. That NAM has been consistent for the 4th run now.

[ronjon]

Broad circulation center now around 12N-80.5W. Thunderstorm activity is fairly sparse but there is definitely a CC circulation present.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

['CaneFreak]

INTRODUCING.................BLOB WATCH 2007 HAS COMMENCED......Ladies and Gentlemen I hereby declare that Blob Watch for 2007 Hurricane Season has now commenced....thank you and hope you have a nice day.....

For you newbies out there, blob watch means that every time a single area of convection has even a remote circulation to it, some airhead on s2k will find some comment to make about it and post it in this forum....happens EVERY SINGLE year....its a big joke 'round these parts....