Tropical Depression Alvin=Last Advisory Written

[Cyclenall]

So far i'm not impressed. Not only does it look worse then it ever has (it doesn't even have enough convection for it to be classified as a tropical cyclone but the NHC had mercy ), but the ITCZ is being pushy again. I loved the wording used by the NHC in one of their tropical weather discussions:

THIRD CENTER AT 10N103W PROVIDES SIMILAR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COMPETING WITH T.D. ONE-E FOR
BETTER CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. PREVIOUS RUNS FROM NOGAPS AND
GFS HAD LEANED TOWARDS THE LATTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW PRES
WHICH IS NOW T.D. ONE-E PULLED THE HARDEST TO WIN COMPETITION.

Talk about competitions .

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH
TODAY...AND PRESENTLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TO QUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

It's not often they continue issuing advertises (and know it's not one) on something that's not really a TC but there going to wait another 6 hours before closing the books and watching for regeneration.

The last NRL image shows a tiny burst of convection...is there still hope?

[JonathanBelles]

can somebody tell me what this is?

[Cyclenall]

can somebody tell me what this is?

That is a good question that I would like to know as well. I first saw that earlier today.

Did Storm2K go offline for a hour or 2? I couldn't get on.

[AnnularCane]

He's looking intense tonight!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Strong southwestly winds at 500 millibars moving through the system; which is the main reason this system has not developed. That is Cirus clouds being removed from the center...We will see if it can develop,,,

[ncupsscweather]

Cyclenall Wrote:

Did Storm2K go offline for a hour or 2? I couldn't get on.

Not they are having problems with the server.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 280830
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
200 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE DEPRESSION HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY
LOOKS HEALTHIER THAN SIX HOURS AGO. MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE
CENTER IS BETWEEN TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A MORE VIABLE
POSITION THAN TWELVE HOURS AGO WHEN THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPOSED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT...AND WITH THE
REFRESHED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 30 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
WHETHER THE SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION IS INDICATIVE OF
THE LONGER-TERM POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS IS BEING COUNTERED
BY LIMITED THERMODYNAMICS. HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHER
THAN SIX HOURS AGO. THE GFDL EVEN FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THREE DAYS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE
GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL
BELOW BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. OVERALL...THIS HAS TO BE
CONSIDERED A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD OR 270/5...A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BEFORE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO GENERALLY FASTER THAN
EARLIER...DUE IN PART TO MOST MODELS SHOWING LESS INTERACTION WITH
AN ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. A RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO
BUILD NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
REASONABLE CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...ECMWF...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 13.1N 112.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 13.1N 113.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 113.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 12.9N 114.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 12.8N 115.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 12.6N 116.6W 40 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 12.5N 118.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 12.5N 119.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Mike Doran]

has the solar winds down under 500 km/sec for the first time in the life of this tropical entity. It's a good distance from regional strikes now and moving toward cooler SSTs--will it make the afternoon or evening's higher strike counts? I think it intensifies to Alvin this evening. It's looking much better with the drop in the solar winds if smaller. Strikes inside the storm itself are now to it's inner core:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/WWLL ... as_BIG.gif

[Cyclenall]

Someone change the title to "Tropical Depression Alvin".

[AnnularCane]

Poor little Alvin. He's been hanging on though.

[Chacor]

POOF!

[cycloneye]

311428
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007

ALVIN HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON NIGHT-VIS IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
LOOKS TO BE ON A FAST TRACK TO DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALVIN IS CREEPING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...250/2. MODELS CONTINUE THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS ALSO A TOUCH SLOWER SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO MOVE MUCH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 13.0N 115.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 12.9N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 01/1200Z 12.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 12.3N 117.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 11.9N 118.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z 11.2N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/1200Z 10.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 311428
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
1500 UTC THU MAY 31 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 115.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 115.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 115.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.7N 116.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.3N 117.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.9N 118.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 11.2N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 10.5N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 311428
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007

ALVIN HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON NIGHT-VIS IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
LOOKS TO BE ON A FAST TRACK TO DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALVIN IS CREEPING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...250/2. MODELS CONTINUE THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS ALSO A TOUCH SLOWER SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO MOVE MUCH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 13.0N 115.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 12.9N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 01/1200Z 12.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 12.3N 117.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 11.9N 118.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z 11.2N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/1200Z 10.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Stick a fork in him, he's about to leave the building!

[AnnularCane]

I'm surprised they haven't issued the last advisory yet. He looks pretty bad.

[Andrew92]

I'm surprised they haven't issued the last advisory yet. He looks pretty bad.

I concur.

P.S That last edit was cuz I accidentally highlighted the menus above the discussion, FYI.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 312032
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
200 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007

I DON'T KNOW ABOUT SIMON AND THEODORE...BUT ALVIN IS NO LONGER A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SINCE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND...THEREFORE...
THIS IS LAST ADVISORY ON ALVIN. A GRADUAL DECREASE OF THE WINDS HAS
LIKELY OCCURRED SINCE THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY DEEP CONVECTION...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 20 KT. THE REMNANT LOW MAY
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL FLAREUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT IS STEERED
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 12.7N 116.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.5N 116.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.3N 117.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0600Z 12.1N 117.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1800Z 11.9N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z 11.3N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1800Z 10.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

The final epilog.

[JonathanBelles]

I love the discussion

[P.K.]

Only last night I was saying the second storm should have been called Simon.

[AnnularCane]

That is one gorgeous naked swirl.