SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

[JenBayles]

Any bets on having the FFW extended into tomorrow?

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

TXZ163-176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-236-272300-
/O.CON.KHGX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-070528T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY CITY...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...
BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CROCKETT...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...HEMPSTEAD...
HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007


...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA... CHECK
PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR
QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR
VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.

[jasons2k]

That first line is coming through here now.



PS - I had 1.85" yesterday

[jasons2k]

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MCS OVER THE WESTERN CWA HAS WEAKENED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE EASTWARD-MOVING SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED
TSRA ALONG THE I-45 AND US 59 CORRIDORS. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE
AREA HAVE DROPPED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING
AROUND 1/2 INCH AN HOUR. DESPITE THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER OUR WRN
ZONES...ONLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TODAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE TX THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS SE TX REMAINS ON EAST SIDE OF 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AREA. PWS WILL REMAIN HIGH (1.7-1.9
INCHES)...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING PRESENT AND DIFLUENT FLOW IN
THE 200-300 MB LAYER. EXPECTING MOST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. APPEARS THAT YET ANOTHER MCS MAY FORM
JUST WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA
MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS EDGES SLIGHTLY EAST...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE AREA MONDAY.
HPC IS FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF QPF FOR SE TX MONDAY. QPFERD PLACES
MOST OF THE AREA IN A MODERATE-HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA WEST
OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO SEALY TO MATAGORDA. THIS AREA RECEIVED
ANOTHER SOAKING TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3 TO 6 INCHES+
OF RAIN IN THE LAST 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...WILL TRIM OUT THE AREAS
FURTHER EAST (INCLUDING METRO HOUSTON) WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
VERY SPOTTY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL RETURN TO THESE AREAS ON MONDAY...AND MAY NEED TO REISSUE THE
WATCH FURTHER EAST AT THAT TIME.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN HALF FOR
TUESDAY...AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AGAIN IN THIS AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD SEE
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF. THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THEY OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FROM A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPING (GFS) TO A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT AFFECTING SE TX (ECMWF). WOULD NORMALLY DISREGARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR BUT IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN. HAVE MOSTLY KEPT EXISTING FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS GFS.

[JenBayles]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-213-214-227-237-238-290000-
/O.EXB.KHGX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-070529T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...
CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...
FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...
LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...ONALASKA...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...
WILLIS...WINNIE
918 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS EXPANDED
THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...
POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY AND WALKER.

* UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA... CHECK
PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR
QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR
VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND

[southerngale]

While y'all have been having bad weather, we've had nice weather the past couple of days. There was a little in the area, but no rain for me on Saturday or Sunday. The Memorial Day picnic at my church yesterday afternoon/evening was really nice. I saw some dark clouds occasionally, but the rain held off. It was quite breezy, which made it feel really nice. It wasn't hot out there at all. A few people actually got a little chilly in the wind! lol

It looks like that will change today as the system slowly creeps eastward. 80% chance of thunderstorms today, according to NWS, with high chances for several days.

[Ptarmigan]

I expect more rain until Wednesday. I say up to 10 to 15 inches of rain.

[JonathanBelles]

I expect more rain until Wednesday. I say up to 10 to 15 inches of rain.

geez! stop hoggin all the rain

[x-y-no]

I expect more rain until Wednesday. I say up to 10 to 15 inches of rain.

geez! stop hoggin all the rain

Yeah, send some to Florida, please!

[Ptarmigan]

I expect more rain until Wednesday. I say up to 10 to 15 inches of rain.

geez! stop hoggin all the rain

Take all the rain you want. We have too much.

[JenBayles]

Did we ever get surprised yesterday afternoon under the BC Dome! BOOM! All at once, the sky went black and we had 20 minutes of 1/2" to 1" hail along with wind-driven rain. The hard rain kept up and the hail went off and on for another 15 minutes or so. I sure missed S2K yesterday!

[jasons2k]

I took some pictures of some amazing mammatus clouds over the house yesterday. I'll post them when I get a chance to download them from my camera, etc.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I took some pictures of some amazing mammatus clouds over the house yesterday. I'll post them when I get a chance to download them from my camera, etc.

yeah, I saw those too. They were amazing. Some of the best mammatus clouds I have seen in this area for sure.

[Tireman4]

Agreed. I really was amazed by them.

[vbhoutex]

Did we ever get surprised yesterday afternoon under the BC Dome! BOOM! All at once, the sky went black and we had 20 minutes of 1/2" to 1" hail along with wind-driven rain. The hard rain kept up and the hail went off and on for another 15 minutes or so. I sure missed S2K yesterday!

We got 2.85" of rain and our 4th hail storm(up to 1/2") in 2 weeks out of that severe storm!! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!! We are now up to almost 11" of rain in the last two weeks!!!

[southerngale]

Intense storms yesterday afternoon here too. They hit sometime after 5:00 and driving was crazy. The cloud to ground lightning was amazing... big, thick bolts all around us and the rain was very heavy. It was like deja vu from a few weeks ago for part of my drive on I-10... same spot, same heavy rain, but not lightning like this last time. It was hard to see and we were going slow, and some guy was following too close and when I hit my brakes because the cars in front of me hit their brakes, he almost hit me, but swerved into the shoulder to keep from hitting me.

After I got where I could snap a few pics while driving, I got a few nice shots of the storm clouds. I'm usually pretty slow at uploading (I have nearly 300 pics on my memory stick now), but when I get them uploaded, I'll post them.

[jasons2k]

I took some pictures of some amazing mammatus clouds over the house yesterday. I'll post them when I get a chance to download them from my camera, etc.

Here they are:

[Johnny]

Great shots jschlitz! I was watching them also with my son during the evening and it was a pretty site. Thanks for sharing.

I'm leaving for Galveston Sunday and staying for a week. It looks like the weather will be fairly decent thankfully. I plan on doing alot of fishing in the surf and out of my boat.

Check out this slide show I made. I think y'all will get a kick out of it. Turn up the speakers!!

Gone Country

[x-y-no]

Nice pics!

Thanks for sharing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

SE Texas has been added to the SPC Day 2 outlook...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO TX...
A REMNANT CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY
OVER PARTS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND/OR WRN N TX ALONG NOSE OF A
WEAKENING LLJ. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND
APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TIED TO THE UPR LOW WILL LIKELY BE
IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING THE AFTN ANYWHERE FROM THE
SABINE RVR VLY WWD INTO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
WLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WITH SPEED SHEAR MODEST AT BEST.
BUT...KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO
FORWARD PROPAGATE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WITHIN 2000-2500 MLCAPES. ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL TEND TO MOVE ESEWD INTO PARTS OF LA AND THE UPR TX COAST DURING
THE EVE HOURS.

UPSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIURNALLY BACK AND BECOME UPSLOPE
INTO ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL DURING THE MID-AFTN. HEATING OF THIS
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND APPROACH OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP...BOTH ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG BOUNDARIES. ESELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 40-50 KTS OF NWLY FLOW AT H5 WILL BOOST
VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WITH
INITIAL STORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TORNADOES. BOTH
NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE ACTIVITY TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BECOMING LIKELY. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX /IE HILL COUNTRY-EDWARDS PLATEAU/ BY 12Z MON.