INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Chacor]

Wow, third pre-season Atlantic invest. Amazing.

[windstorm99]

Yes amazing....

Hope its not a trend.

[KatDaddy]

WXman57 was right on target. Hopefull this will become a trend of steady invests as we begin the season. At least this will bring MUCH NEEDED rainfall to Florida.
You guys really need this invest to dump the rain. Its more than about time. Difficult to say if this will become a TD.

[BreinLa]

Oh Oh I'm not ready yet lol

[SWFLA_CANE]

It looks like shear will need to relax for this to develop. Convection looks decent, but is being blown east with the shear. Looks like it may bring some much needed rain to FLA.

[Weatherboy1]

My poor yard is suffering here in Jupiter, so I'll take a weak storm/undeveloped blob of convection any day! Maybe I'll finally be able to fertilize my palms and get some green back.

[x-y-no]

No way this develops into a TD in that upper air environment.

This'll be a real nice rain event for Florida, though.

[Chacor]

I wonder if this will be mentioned in the season's first TWO.

[jabber]

Great... I know we need the rain but could it just wait one day.... the movers are loading the van tomorrow for my move to NC... I guess it could be worse I could be putting up shutters.

[jabber]

I wonder if this will be mentioned in the season's first TWO.

Bet it does.

[windstorm99]

Lets see if it takes a more southern track.

[WmE]

I wonder if this will be mentioned in the season's first TWO.

If it holds together until tomorrow, they'll certainly mention it. Something like "disorganized showers and cloudiness in the Carribean and conditions are not conducive for further development" or something.

[Berwick Bay]

Don't rule this system out just yet. I'm continuing to think in terms of tropical depression formation (not at all out of the question). Look for this system to gradually move N (more fully into SE GOM). If depression upgrade occurs, look for center to be fixed somewhere near the west tip of Cuba (in extreme southern Gulf). My forecast was from May 28-31). I'm looking to see just how close this will come to the actual point predicted 10 days ago and to the May 28-31 time slot. In any case I look for an upgrade by the NHC as the system moves on toward the Fl Coast.

[O Town]

Shear tendency says shear is on the decrease in that area.


And the shear is 50 kt. in front of this, not the best enviroment for growth.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[windstorm99]

Thoughts from Jeff Masters on Weather Underground.

A large area of disturbed weather developed over the Western Caribbean last night. This disturbance is bringing winds of up to 55 mph over the ocean, according to the 7:07am EDT pass of the QuikSCAT satellite. The NOAA Buoy off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula recorded winds this morning at 30mph, gusting to 35mph. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT or satellite loops, but the disturbance does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday as it moves to the northeast over Western Cuba and South Florida. Wind shear is a not-too-unfriendly 10-20 knots, and the shear is expected to remain at these levels through Saturday. Thereafter, most of the models are indicating that the disturbance will get caught up by a strong trough of low pressure with high shear that should stop further development, and sweep the system northeastward out to sea. I doubt this system has enough time to get organized into a tropical depression before wind shear rips it up, but the disturbance should bring welcome heavy rains to South Florida over the weekend. Lake Okeechobee recorded its record lowest water level yesterday--8.97 feet (about 4 feet below normal). This was the lowest level since record keeping began in 1931, according to a Miami Herald article this morning. The lake has been dropping about 1/2 per rainless day. I expect about an inch of rain over the area this weekend, which should temporarily stabilize the lake water level

[Aric Dunn]

No way this develops into a TD in that upper air environment.

This'll be a real nice rain event for Florida, though.

remember alberto !!!!! it was in a very similar environment!!! strong sub trop jet ..

[Thunder44]

NRL has 92L with winds of 25kts. The center position is at 196N 871W, which is about 65 miles south of Cozumel.

It's hard for me to see how much more organized this system can get, for TPC to declare it a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone. There is fairly strong shear over the low center now and it will only increase as it moves north in GOM. I guess a landfall threat might help.

[windstorm99]

Windshear is expect to be at 10-20kts until saturday according to jeff masters.

I think the chance is there for atleast a development of a TD.

[Aric Dunn]

new shear analysis... 12z the upper ridging is still sliding more NE and is almost over the system .... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

as long as it stays in that general area.. it has a chance..

and always remember what alberto formed.. and remember that once a system begins moving with the shear as in the case with alberto ... the is a increased chance that it can be come better organized

[windstorm99]