INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

#41 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 31, 2007 9:48 am

Frank2 wrote:Don't worry, Gatorcane - a really good chance for rain, though, and that's good news down here (hopefully it'll rain over and north of the Lake)...

Nice to see you again Frank -- no doubt this will probably just bring much needed rainfall for South Florida.

Aric Dunn · #42 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu May 31, 2007 9:49 am

Aric Dunn wrote:I would say take a look here .. bouy and ship reports in the area..... http://www.oceanweather.com/data/ ( then click on marine observation at the top center of the page.... ) the ships wind directions do not directly support a low center that far north .... but it is helpful

on that same image the closed isobar on that map is more likely where the center is ( if any yet) than further north.. i pretty sure its just a mid level rotation

#43 Postby **windstorm99** » Thu May 31, 2007 9:49 am

I find it interesting we have seen 3 invest in the month of may and makes you wonder what might happen when conditions really become favorable during the coming months.

Thunder44 · #44 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu May 31, 2007 9:56 am

boca wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
boca wrote:Where exactly is the low level turning, down by Roatan Island off Honduras?

maybe just north of there .... still checking all available data... and i need more visible images .. i will have a better analysis in about an hour.. surface obs support... low further south .. where as visible imagery supports a low south of the western tip of cuba.... need a little longer to make a better analysis

i wish the cuban radar was working.. the last image was from the 12 of may

When I first looked at the sat the spin looked like it was east of Cozemel, but now it looks further SSW of that area.

Yes, that's how it looks to me now as well on the latest visibles. Looks like the LLC is trying to close off just SSW of Cozumuel.

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 31, 2007 9:57 am

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Possible recon for 92L on June 1 around 2 PM EDT or 18:00z.

Aric Dunn · #46 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:01 am

Thunder44 wrote:
boca wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
boca wrote:Where exactly is the low level turning, down by Roatan Island off Honduras?

maybe just north of there .... still checking all available data... and i need more visible images .. i will have a better analysis in about an hour.. surface obs support... low further south .. where as visible imagery supports a low south of the western tip of cuba.... need a little longer to make a better analysis

i wish the cuban radar was working.. the last image was from the 12 of may

When I first looked at the sat the spin looked like it was east of Cozemel, but now it looks further SSW of that area.

Yes, that's how it looks to me now as well on the latest visibles. Looks like the LLC is trying to close off just SSW of Cozumuel.

SSW??/ you mean SSE

Scorpion · #47 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:06 am

Wow starting off early.... its not even officially hurricane season yet

HurricaneHunter914 · #48 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:10 am

Finally a good chance of rain will come to Florida! But by the time 92L reaches FL I'll be living in TX!

#49 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:11 am

Very interesting. As a whole, I doubt it amounts to much except for a rain threat. Then again, we should be careful to the people of Houston, cuz we all thought Allison was just a rain threat. She was, and we saw what happened....

Anyway, back to the Invest. Maybe a weak TS at strongest out of this thing. As in 40-45 mph.

-Andrew92

Extremeweatherguy · #50 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:12 am

wow, this system really does look healthy this morning! I had not really been paying much attention to this area over the last day or two, and to see it this active today amazes me. Looks like we may start the first day of hurricane season with a bang this year!

BTW: Berwick Bay's prediction looks like it may actually end up being correct.

#51 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:13 am

wow, possible recon? Things are getting interesting needless to say...

Is it May or August? :eek:

Aric Dunn · #52 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:15 am

Ok i think i have a very good candidate at about 19.66n 87.23w ...... ok this is a rough picture ... but this is the best i have right now... until some more visible images come in...... http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg

now remember... that is an estimate from surface, ships , bouy, and satellite observations..... now given the broad and diffuse turning it is uncertain and could reform or shift anywhere in that general area....

jdray · #53 Postby **jdray** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:18 am

If it follows the GFS models, it only benefits those in South Florida.

North Florida and Georgia would still be suffering from lack of rain. Worse case scenario, sorry South Florida people, we need rain more than Lake Okeechobee does.

The CMC would be the best model layout to bring needed rain to the worse areas.

#54 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:20 am

NAM at 54 hours....

hurricanefloyd5 · #55 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:20 am

jdray wrote:If it follows the GFS models, it only benefits those in South Florida.

North Florida and Georgia would still be suffering from lack of rain. Worse case scenario, sorry South Florida people, we need rain more than Lake Okeechobee does.

The CMC would be the best model layout to bring needed rain to the worse areas.

I dont know who you are talking to but all floridaa and southern GA. needs the rain not just north florida and south GA

B'hamBlazer · #56 Postby **B'hamBlazer** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:20 am

I'd love for this thing to move straight towards the big bend of Florida or even further westward, but that seems to be a less likely solution at this point. Birmingham and central Alabama are about 16-18 inches below normal rainfall. I'm liking that NAM model :lol:

...even though I don't think it's as likely.

Extremeweatherguy · #57 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:22 am

the direction this thing ends up going will depend on exactly where the center can be established, how strong it gets and how fast/slow it moves. ATM though, it looks pretty likely to be a MS, AL or FL system and hopefully that means much needed rain in the dry, fire-ravaged SE United States.

#58 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:22 am

Cuba Radar

:uarrow:

The Cuba Radar is not the best in the world,but at least you can see the area of interest and it's rotation.

#59 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:24 am

NGM 48 hours...FWIW :lol:

Aric Dunn · #60 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu May 31, 2007 10:25 am

cycloneye wrote:Cuba Radar

The Cuba Radar is not the best in the world,but at least you can see the area of interest and it's rotation.

hey its fianly working!!! i just checked that like 10 minutes ago

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