INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis
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- GeneratorPower
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Wow. Reconn possible for Invest 92L. Very interesting and early start to the season.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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here is rough idea of where the center is.. this is based off of ship,land, bouy, and satellite data..... now given the uncertainties and the lack of good reports .... i would only say that i need some more visible imagery and some data to make a better judgment..
http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg
http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg
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- Ivanhater
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NW wind , looks like we have a closed low!!!
Observed at: Cancun, MX
Elevation: 23 ft
[Light Rain]
73 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft
Overcast 12000 ft
(Above Ground Level)".....
Observed at: Cancun, MX
Elevation: 23 ft
[Light Rain]
73 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft
Overcast 12000 ft
(Above Ground Level)".....
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Michael
000
WONT41 KNHC 311549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN
WONT41 KNHC 311549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN
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- SWFLA_CANE
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Aric Dunn wrote:here is rough idea of where the center is.. this is based off of ship,land, bouy, and satellite data..... now given the uncertainties and the lack of good reports .... i would only say that i need some more visible imagery and some data to make a better judgment..
http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg
I think you are way off on LLC placement. According to TPC, the center is 75 miles SE of Cozumel.
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Thunder44 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:here is rough idea of where the center is.. this is based off of ship,land, bouy, and satellite data..... now given the uncertainties and the lack of good reports .... i would only say that i need some more visible imagery and some data to make a better judgment..
http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg
I think you are way off on LLC placement. According to TPC, the center is 75 miles SE of Cozumel.
I have re analyzed it ... this is much better .. its much clearer on visible now..
I think you will agree with this take a look at the close up loop from the nasa site .. you can see the actual circulation getting going a little better as it rotates around a broader low just about where the NHC puts it .. yeah i was off on my last analysis... http://img487.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... l0loq4.jpg

Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu May 31, 2007 11:09 am, edited 6 times in total.
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- windstorm99
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- windstorm99
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Aric Dunn wrote:Thunder44 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:here is rough idea of where the center is.. this is based off of ship,land, bouy, and satellite data..... now given the uncertainties and the lack of good reports .... i would only say that i need some more visible imagery and some data to make a better judgment..
http://img78.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... hxwga1.jpg
I think you are way off on LLC placement. According to TPC, the center is 75 miles SE of Cozumel.
I have re analyzed it ... this is much better .. its much clearer on visible now..
I think you will agree with this take a look at the close up loop from the nasa site .. you can see the actual circulation getting going a little better as it rotates around a broader low just about where the NHC puts it .. yeah i was off on my last analysis... http://img487.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... l0loq4.jpg
remember that is just a small circulation rotating around a broader low
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hurricanefloyd5 wrote:jdray wrote:If it follows the GFS models, it only benefits those in South Florida.
North Florida and Georgia would still be suffering from lack of rain. Worse case scenario, sorry South Florida people, we need rain more than Lake Okeechobee does.
The CMC would be the best model layout to bring needed rain to the worse areas.
I dont know who you are talking to but all floridaa and southern GA. needs the rain not just north florida and south GA
I know that, its just that North Florida and Georgia need it more than south Florida. You may want to actually check drought levels.
To bring back to near normal drought index levels, South Florida on needs 3-6 inches, Central Florida needs 6-9 inches,
North Florida, the Panhandle and South Georgia need 9-12 inches.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... addpcp.gif
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