INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

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Ivanhater
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#81 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 31, 2007 11:20 am

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#82 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 31, 2007 11:29 am

Come on baby!

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B'hamBlazer
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#83 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 11:29 am

Here are the NAM 60hr precipitation totals...

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Certainly hope so...
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#84 Postby Opal storm » Thu May 31, 2007 11:32 am

Trust me you do not want THAT MUCH rain. 5-10 inches in a day will put you from a drought to extreme flooding in a snap. The ground is too dry to absorb that much water in so little time.
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GeneratorPower
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#85 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu May 31, 2007 11:34 am

Opal storm wrote:Trust me you do not want THAT MUCH rain. 5-10 inches in a day will put you from a drought to extreme flooding in a snap. The ground is too dry to absorb that much water in so little time.


Honestly, it would be better than being on fire. In Florida, with all that sandy soil, the effect of dry soil doesn't have as much effect as it would where there is clay.
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#86 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Thu May 31, 2007 11:34 am

Cloud tops have warmed in the past few hours...wouldn't surprise me to see it go poof in the next 24 hours.
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#87 Postby Opal storm » Thu May 31, 2007 11:36 am

SWFLA_CANE wrote:Cloud tops have warmed in the past few hours...wouldn't surprise me to see it go poof in the next 24 hours.
The convection will pulse on and off, very normal in weak systems like this.
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#88 Postby windstorm99 » Thu May 31, 2007 11:39 am

some models

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#89 Postby TrekkerCC » Thu May 31, 2007 11:40 am

Opal storm wrote:Trust me you do not want THAT MUCH rain. 5-10 inches in a day will put you from a drought to extreme flooding in a snap. The ground is too dry to absorb that much water in so little time.


When has the NAM ever been right this far out? :D I know that you folks in Florida need the rain, but I hope that it doesn't cause too many problems. The invest looks very nice right now. I am still a bit puzzled over the STDS, as it appears to me that the Gulf is very hostile right now (wind shear). Does any of the model guidance slacken the mid level shear over the gulf?
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#90 Postby windstorm99 » Thu May 31, 2007 11:40 am

NHC graphic...

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#91 Postby canes04 » Thu May 31, 2007 11:41 am

I'm sure all us Floridians are saying bring on rain!! The Lake is at an all time low.
Hopefully this forcast plays out. Bring it on!!
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#92 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 11:42 am

How much of a rainfall deficit do yall have?
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#93 Postby Opal storm » Thu May 31, 2007 11:42 am

Will Barbara have any affects on 92L?
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#94 Postby Nimbus » Thu May 31, 2007 11:42 am

This morning with the forecast shear, it looked more like it would be a fast moving hybrid storm.

The forecast MSLP now looks too symmetrical for a storm experiencing shear.

Those visibles are beginning to look a little scary the way the convection seems to be curling around and overcoming the shear.
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#95 Postby Scorpion » Thu May 31, 2007 11:44 am

I really dont want the rain now.... theres a few outdoor parties that I am attending this weekend
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#96 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 11:44 am

What a huge area of convection that has flared up...

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#97 Postby jdray » Thu May 31, 2007 11:44 am

B'hamBlazer wrote:How much of a rainfall deficit do yall have?


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... addpcp.gif

Nice graph showing how much rain is needed in areas to bring Drought Indexes back to near normal levels.
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#98 Postby Rainband » Thu May 31, 2007 11:45 am

looks like a disorganized mess to me.
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#99 Postby dizzyfish » Thu May 31, 2007 11:47 am

From the SPC....

...FL...

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN BRINGING UPPER LOW INTO THE FL
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES...MODELS BRING STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS REGION
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
UNCERTAINTY EXIST REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. THIS ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING OF UPPER LOW PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
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#100 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 31, 2007 11:47 am

Rainband wrote:looks like a disorganized mess to me.


Ya and there was almost nothing there 16 hours ago and now look....they all start out a mess :wink:
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