INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection seems to be firing again somewhat strongly near the supposed center.

Curious to see if this can persist, and the diurnal maximum.



What seems to be more important isn't if the convection persists, but whether it will migrate closer to the center and wrap around it.

[Frank2]

Yes, what AJC3 mentioned is what was mentioned by a local OCM last night - the disturbance is largely due to a dip in the jet, and, because of that the divergence is helping to increase convection over the area, so...

[gatorcane]

Convection seems to be firing again somewhat strongly near the supposed center.

Curious to see if this can persist, and the diurnal maximum.



What seems to be more important isn't if the convection persists, but whether it will migrate closer to the center and wrap around it.

so can we start saying...

here we go folks?

or is this dip in the jet solely responsible?

[curtadams]

Certainly looks baroclinic now. Huge area, strong and obviously divergent shear, convection highly assymmetrical and remote from the center (some central in the past few hours, but that's it). It might become hybrid if the convection gets going at the center but even so FL isn't going to see a tropical system. The subtropical jet is between the low and FL so even if something manages to form it's going to have its head blown off on the way to FL.

[windstorm99]

Updated shear map shows about another 20hrs of pretty favorable conditions for 92L to go ahead and intensify some.

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection seems to be firing again somewhat strongly near the supposed center.

Curious to see if this can persist, and the diurnal maximum.



What seems to be more important isn't if the convection persists, but whether it will migrate closer to the center and wrap around it.

so can we start saying...

here we go folks?

or is this dip in the jet solely responsible?

It is responsible, but it's a catalyst to get things started, it works in the same premise the ITCZ spawns TC's, something has to come together to get a storm started.


I'm not saying "Anything is occuring", the storm has been completely fruitless thus far, and the convection is still displaced from the supposed center. But if it can continue to expand and cover it we could possible see a sheared "Alberto-esque" Tropical Storm within the next 36 hours before getting dominated by strong shear.

[Patrick99]

Wow, shear is pretty low over a good portion of the Atlantic basin.

[Opal storm]

Its sitting over a very favorable area now, but it will run into trouble once in the Gulf.

[Tommedic]

Unless something mysterious comes up, the best thing about this system is the rain it may produce over Florida. The only thing I wonder is if it will end up in Atlantic with a very warm set of waters waiting. Any input?

[windstorm99]

convection is starting to pop again but lets see what takes place this evening and during the over night hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Most of the Fsu models show this as warm core. So very interesting already...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/22.html

Warm core

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 112/7.html


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 112/1.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/24.html

[AJC3]

Usually when there is a system of some sort near the Yucatan, someone saves images from the Cancun radar ( http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg ) gererates a java loop from them, and posts it to the web somewhere.

Anyone know off hand if there's someone doing that at the moment? TIA

[Opal storm]

Mobile is 14.22 inches below normal. Had we not received almost an inch of rain yesterday, our deficit would be in excess of 15 inches.

Looks like we won't be getting much help from 92L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
245 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUED
TO VARY ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK ON THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN. THE NAM IS LARGEST OUTLIER AS IT TAKES A
STRONGER SFC LOW INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE ON SAT NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NAM IS A RATHER POOR TROPICAL MODEL AND ITS SOLUTION
WILL BE DISCARDED AS WILL THE POPS AND TEMPS FROM THE METMOS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS TAKE A SFC LOW AT VARYING SPEEDS GENERALLY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA
OTHER THAN THE COASTAL WATERS AND MIGHT ACTUALLY SERVE TO PULL A
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY
AN ISOLATED (20 PERCENT) POP ON BOTH FRI AND SAT AND AWAIT TO SEE
JUST WHAT DOES OR DOES NOT DEVELOP. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE STATEMENT ISSUED BY NHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
FEWER CLOUDS AND RESULTANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS (UPPER 80S)
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. /13

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A new center is forming near 20 north/84.8 west. Near the new convection blow up, this system appears to becoming slowly more organized. Looks like Arlene a little to me.

[chadtm80]

Usually when there is a system of some sort near the Yucatan, someone saves images from the Cancun radar ( http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg ) gererates a java loop from them, and posts it to the web somewhere.

Anyone know off hand if there's someone doing that at the moment? TIA

Havent seen any yet Tony but will keep my eye open for you

[vacanechaser]

does anyone have a link to the numerics??? i cant find the damn things!!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cpdaman]

which direction is the wind shear?


is it SW wind shear? mid level upper level all levels? sorry this is not a strong point of analysis for me, yet.

i remember WILMA (just trying to get a comparison of jet streams here, not storms) was supposed to hit all this shear but it lined up and accelerated i think in the same direction as the shear so it wasn't weakened

[Aric Dunn]

Havn't looked that closely since I have not been feeling well, but had a chance this morning and MAYBE a sheared "TC" like Mitch that hit SF in November 1998. May have the baroclinic forcing to lead to development, like we had with Mitch

i was thinking more on the lines of Alberto last year

this is alberto the morning it became TD ... looks very sheared and baroclinic at that point.. but a few hours later as the system begin to move with the shear .. there was burst of convection .. that allowed to become alberto

[Aric Dunn]

this was later on



as it begin to move NE faster

[AJC3]

does anyone have a link to the numerics??? i cant find the damn things!!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Do you mean these?

UKIE ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Bracknell/
latest ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 53117.EGRR

NHC/GFDL ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Guidance/
latest GFDL ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 117.WHXX04
I don't see the latest NHC guidance suite in there, but if it was, it would have the suffix .WHXX01 after the date/time stamp