INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

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Ivanhater
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#181 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 31, 2007 3:30 pm

18z NAM ...

Image
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#182 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 3:31 pm

NGM seems to agree (more or less) with the NAM...here's the system at 48hrs...

Image
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#183 Postby Opal storm » Thu May 31, 2007 3:33 pm

NAM makes no sense and that's why the Mobile NWS office is ignoring it.
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#184 Postby vacanechaser » Thu May 31, 2007 3:36 pm

AJC3 wrote:
vacanechaser wrote:does anyone have a link to the numerics??? i cant find the damn things!!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
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Do you mean these?

UKIE ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Bracknell/
latest ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 53117.EGRR

NHC/GFDL ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Guidance/


have those thanx... was looking for the ships, bamms and what not....just dont see those... thnx again...



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latest GFDL ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 117.WHXX04
I don't see the latest NHC guidance suite in there, but if it was, it would have the suffix .WHXX01 after the date/time stamp
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#185 Postby windstorm99 » Thu May 31, 2007 3:37 pm

Very litttle chance it would servive as it would probably get ripped to shreads...

On another note here are a few images from alberto last year.

Image

Image

The unexpected blow-up over night

Image
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#186 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 3:41 pm

Here's the NGM:ETA:AVN Composite loop...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models/animate.php?title=NGM:ETA:AVN%20Composite%20Surface%20Loop&frames=9&imagefiles=./composites/ani/nea_sfc_*.gif
Last edited by B'hamBlazer on Thu May 31, 2007 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#187 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu May 31, 2007 3:43 pm

Ivanhater wrote:18z NAM ...

Image
Folks please stop using (ETA) NAM for Tropics...It's not a tropical model. The GFS has had some changes to it since last year that are improved...
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#188 Postby boca » Thu May 31, 2007 3:44 pm

Like Matt said I think the low or whatever that is is at 20n and 84.8 w looking at the sat and its blowing up again.
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#189 Postby tgenius » Thu May 31, 2007 3:45 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:18z NAM ...

Image
Folks please stop using (ETA) NAM for Tropics...It's not a tropical model. The GFS has had some changes to it since last year that are improved...


KFDM... the GFS makes this a South FL storm/system based on the models (which appear to at the very least be consistent) would you agree with them?
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#190 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu May 31, 2007 3:47 pm

I never look at the NAM for Tropical!!!! Even the NHC folks will tell you that. GFS, EURO are good ones to look at.
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#191 Postby windstorm99 » Thu May 31, 2007 3:47 pm

All models should be taken with caution at the moment until the aircraft gets out there.Its possible the center could be relocated and can change the track of those models.
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#192 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 3:48 pm

Check this out... none of the models can be even really considered until the center of this thing is determined. Just take a look at where it is now centered... much further west and south than just a few hours ago.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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#193 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu May 31, 2007 3:48 pm

True. I'm just saying NAM (ETA) is no good for Tropical!
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#194 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu May 31, 2007 3:50 pm

Image
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#195 Postby Noles2006 » Thu May 31, 2007 3:51 pm

windstorm99 wrote:All models should be taken with caution at the moment until the aircraft gets out there.Its possible the center could be relocated and can change the track of those models.


All models except the NAM.
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#196 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 31, 2007 3:51 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:True. I'm just saying NAM (ETA) is no good for Tropical!



I already know that...just interesting to see it, by no means do I think that will verify
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#197 Postby windstorm99 » Thu May 31, 2007 3:53 pm

Noles2006 wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:All models should be taken with caution at the moment until the aircraft gets out there.Its possible the center could be relocated and can change the track of those models.


All models except the NAM.


Cant agree more...garbage model.
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#198 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu May 31, 2007 3:54 pm

8-)
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#199 Postby Aquawind » Thu May 31, 2007 3:54 pm

Models..with a grain of salt. They have been hinting Caribbean development for weeks now. windstorm99 hit it..I always like a defined stacked center and then the models will be worthy of a real track. Other than that it's a blob heading North or NE at this time..
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#200 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu May 31, 2007 3:55 pm

FL just needs the rain!!
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