INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Ukmet places a low pressure very close to were I would place a developing MLC(possible LLC?) near 20 north/84.8. Yes there is a broad low pressure near where all the other models or nhc placement place it, but it just doe's not have the convection or set up to develop. This new one on the other hand with convection; should slowly develop and become the main center over time. We will see.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/24.html

Also this low pressure area is fairly broad, but the convection and overall set up should favor more development of this low pressure area.

[B'hamBlazer]

Exactly what my point is. The models seem quite confused at the moment with it hitting pretty much anywhere along the gulf coast of Florida. Anyone dead set on a panhandle hit or a peninsula hit are simply -removed- or guessing. I'll admit that based on where I live and our desperate need for rain that I'm hoping for a panhandle hit, but I'm by no means certain. Personally, I think a South FL hit is the LEAST likely of the solutions.

I'd say northwest Florida or central Florida stands the best chance, but again... with it being quite disorganized, a LOT can change depending on whether the center stays where it is, relocates, etc. Bottom line is that some in the SE stand to get some much needed rainfall. I just hope it passes slowly over whichever area it does track over.

[Opal storm]

I guess I'm the only one here that thinks it will cross Mexico and go make friends with Barbara in the EPAC and head to Hawaii.

[Aric Dunn]

LOl not too much of a spread..... in the gfs ensemble ....


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

[LaBreeze]

Ok, now I'm getting a little concerned about my drive over to Florida on Monday and Tuesday of next week. What is the time frame on this "system?" I suppose I'll drive right into it or I'll have to cancel my plans.

[gtalum]

By Monday this system should be in the interior US or the Atlantic, according to forecasts I've seen. Of course, they aren't always right on those things...

[B'hamBlazer]

No offense, but of course there's not a lot of difference in the GFS variations because they operate largely on the same information/framework.

[B'hamBlazer]

Shear has dropped dramatically in the area around the "center."

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shtZ.GIF

[CrazyC83]

What a way to start the season...is this a harbinger for things to come?

[B'hamBlazer]

I'm not sure that it will persist, but it looks like convection is wrapping around at about 20N/85W

[CrazyC83]

As for development? I don't think so, as it is going to encounter the subtropical jet stream with 70 knot shear in the central Gulf. Any early storms needs to be near where Andrea formed off the Southeastern US coast, in the northwestern Gulf in Mexico or in the Caribbean and staying there.

[canegrl04]

What a way to start the season...is this a harbinger for things to come?

Could be.With the official prediction of 17 named storms,ithe season is bound to get off to an early start.I'm sticking with my prediction of the first hurricane before the end of June

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm not sure that it will persist, but it looks like convection is wrapping around at about 20N/85W

MLC maybe a LLC? I see it really starting to get going around 20.5 north/85 west. We will see, if it were to be forming south of where it is; I would say it had a very good chance.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's about time some rain heads for Florida

I hope this system puts out those stupid fires.

[windstorm99]

Interesting little hook taking shape...

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not sure that it will persist, but it looks like convection is wrapping around at about 20N/85W

MLC maybe a LLC? I see it really starting to get going around 20.5 north/85 west. We will see, if it were to be forming south of where it is; I would say it had a very good chance.

if your talking about the heading towards .. cuba that is a mid level circ..... llc is still near the coast..... about 19.5 n

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm not sure that it will persist, but it looks like convection is wrapping around at about 20N/85W

MLC maybe a LLC? I see it really starting to get going around 20.5 north/85 west. We will see, if it were to be forming south of where it is; I would say it had a very good chance.

if your talking about the heading towards .. cuba that is a mid level circ..... llc is still near the coast..... about 19.5 n

That low pressure area near the coast is very very broad and likely not a LLC at all. But at 20 north/85 west maybe there is one. We will have to see.

[tgenius]

The fringes of the low are starting to make their way to south fl.. should see a bit of rain tonight I would hope, even if its not very much.

[SouthFloridawx]

[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif[/web]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Appears to be a very broad LLC/low pressure centered around 20.5-21 north/85.5 west. The MLC moving up its east side is the thing I was noting...The convection is starting to wrap around the overall low pressure. If this doe's not get sheared apart, I expect there is fair chance we will see something.