INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

#221 Postby **tgenius** » Thu May 31, 2007 5:20 pm

so the 18z GFS still has it coming into South FL...

Aquawind · #222 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu May 31, 2007 5:21 pm

Nice.. I am located between the Purple blob and the center.

Come on GFS you can do it! Verify for once in your..lol

artist · #223 Postby **artist** » Thu May 31, 2007 5:24 pm

good - looks like that latest has it coming right over the center of Lake Okeechobee

#224 Postby **windstorm99** » Thu May 31, 2007 5:31 pm

Looks the GFS brings it close to the florida coast but all the nasty weather will be spreading all over the state by then.

#225 Postby **windstorm99** » Thu May 31, 2007 5:38 pm

NHC 48 surface map has the low basically over the lake which would great great news.

MiamiensisWx · #226 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu May 31, 2007 5:50 pm

Personally, I don't see a low-level circulation near the Yucatan at 19.5N. There is sfc convergence, but I have not noticed any evidence of a circulation at all levels. I believe that a broad LLC may be forming near 21N and 85W or further south. See the latest visible loop. The rotation is ill-defined, but this is the location that contains the best evidence for a LLC.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #227 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:00 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Personally, I don't see a low-level circulation near the Yucatan at 19.5N. There is sfc convergence, but I have not noticed any evidence of a circulation at all levels. I believe that a broad LLC may be forming near 21N and 85W or further south. See the latest visible loop. The rotation is ill-defined, but this is the location that contains the best evidence for a LLC.

I agree with that, it is forming near the big burst of convection.

Nimbus · #228 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:04 pm

Broad area of low pressure under shear from the southwest.

Looks like the circulation is anchored back over land near 20n 88w, That end of the elongated circulation should move slowly NNE.

Should pump plenty of moisture up over Florida once it gets up in the gulf.

#229 Postby **Noah** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:10 pm

Hmm, with the forcast saying we might get rain, im not even going to believe anything till it starts raining, :roll:

this is the has been the driest floida year ever, I have been here 20 years.

wzrgirl1 · #230 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:20 pm

It is already looking dismal outside. I hope we get the rain we need.

#231 Postby **Downdraft** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:20 pm

Models are having a hard time initializing the center it's so broad. Looking ahead I don't think this has a prayer of becoming a true tropical system. Perhaps somewhat of a hybrid but either way the wet side will spread across the Florida pennisula. If anything with the rising shear and helicity values perhaps a threat of some tornados although storms coming from the west are not big tornado producers on the pennisulacompared to Atlantic landfalls. Personally I'd go with the ECMWF it appears to be the consensus model at the moment.

#232 Postby **feederband** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:23 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:It is already looking dismal outside. I hope we get the rain we need.

Dismal is good...Dismal is great...Bring on the rain!!!!

#233 Postby **windstorm99** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:28 pm

On channel 10 were max mayfield is currently employed they were showing there in house model which kept almost all the rain away from florida and the heaviest precip in the gulf over 7 inches plus.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #234 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:33 pm

Broad LLC entering the channel at around 21.5/85.5 west moving slowly northward. Appears to be a more organized low pressure forming. Also Anticyclone is trying to form northward out of the western caribbean. We wlll see...

#235 Postby **N2FSU** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:34 pm

It just rained at my house here in Tallahassee for 30 seconds! YIPPEE!

#236 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:41 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Personally, I don't see a low-level circulation near the Yucatan at 19.5N. There is sfc convergence, but I have not noticed any evidence of a circulation at all levels. I believe that a broad LLC may be forming near 21N and 85W or further south. See the latest visible loop. The rotation is ill-defined, but this is the location that contains the best evidence for a LLC.

I agree.. I can not pinpoint out a center of circulation, but there definitely is some broad spin.

#237 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:42 pm

1005.4 MB http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

Patrick99 · #238 Postby **Patrick99** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:45 pm

Rain? It's looked cloudy outside all day, but the NWS site for Miami is reporting a dewpoint of 60 degrees and relative humidity 54%. Not exactly nice and juicy yet. I'll believe widespread rain when I see it.

#239 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:50 pm

Patrick99 wrote:Rain? It's looked cloudy outside all day, but the NWS site for Miami is reporting a dewpoint of 60 degrees and relative humidity 54%. Not exactly nice and juicy yet. I'll believe widespread rain when I see it.

hang tight, homestead dp at 67 and key west at 69

#240 Postby **GulfHills** » Thu May 31, 2007 6:50 pm

N2FSU wrote:It just rained at my house here in Tallahassee for 30 seconds! YIPPEE!

Well I missed it.....was taking a nap!

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