Your thoughts...

[Colin]

Hey guys... I wanted to see what your thoughts are on an East Coast landfalling Hurricane. With this Hurricane Season predicted to be one of the active ones, I wanted to know what YOU think the chances are for a hurricane to make landfall on the East Coast, and what area do you think has the best chance?

[Anonymous]

The Carolinas could easily see up to 2 hits/brushes this season. New england will probably get hit as well, due to the NAO being positive. The mid Atlantic coastline should avoid anything direct, though that doesn't mean they won't get affected (just look at Floyd).

For more specific landfall predictions for the East and Gulf coast, and the reasoning behind what I just said, you can go to the 2003 hurricane forecast that TWW Kevin and I made a few weeks ago.

[Stormsfury]

The Carolinas could easily see up to 2 hits/brushes this season. New england will probably get hit as well, due to the NAO being positive. The mid Atlantic coastline should avoid anything direct, though that doesn't mean they won't get affected (just look at Floyd).

For more specific landfall predictions for the East and Gulf coast, and the reasoning behind what I just said, you can go to the 2003 hurricane forecast that TWW Kevin and I made a few weeks ago.

Rob, this unsettles me a little bit, especially since obvoiusly, I live in Coastal South Carolina ... but you make an undenyingly good point, especially since the NAO has overwhelmingly been positive ... which means this, in laymen's terms ... a blocking high instead of a 50/50 low (low pressure located around 50ºN, 50ºW or sometimes known as the Newfoundland Low in which the NAO being negative)...and that high doesn't allow tropical systems to recurve or recurve much too late ... and of course, the fact that the Cape Verde region is already showing its intentions for later in the season with already more than impressive systems coming off the African Coast in this early part of the season ...

[Anonymous]

ALL of the seasonal factors are pointing towards a dangerous season for the east coast and we're deeply concerned about this. The past few seasons have been quiet for much of the east coast, but that luck appears to be running out.

[Colin]

Thanks for your replies... I live in Eastern Pennsylvania and remember Floyd vividly. There was significant, I mean SIGNIFICANT flooding everywhere, as well as some strong winds... and with a dangerous season upcoming, it sure looks like almost ALL of the Eastern Seaboard is at risk, albeit not a direct hit in many places, but the Carolinas do have the best chance, like you said, to be directly hit by a storm... and they've been receiving some very heavy rains lately, and what they don't need is to be directly hit by a hurricane.. even if they weren't hit by rains before, it'd still be destructive! :o

Thanks for your response, TropicalWxWatcher, Supercane, and Stormsfury.

[ColdFront77]

Great thread. The chances are higher than past years with this years expectation of more systems forming. We shall see where the Bermuda Highs set up and how much they move.

[Colin]

Great thread. The chances go up for an east coast landfalling hurricane when the frequency of them is expected to be higher.

I thought this would be a good thread to start... hence why I posted it....

[Rainband]

I just hope everyone is the Tropical Atlantic is ready for a bumpy ride!!! and West florida is lucky for another year!!!!!..I hear The GOM will be active later in the season..guess we shall see!!!!!

[Colin]

Yes...we shall see... but it looks like we're all in for a real bumpy Hurricane Season! :o