INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Stephanie]

I just hope the SE gets rain from this, period!

The scary thing is that a tropical system will probably be the ONLY way you'll get out of the drought. We can only just pray that they will be storms and not hurricanes!

[Derek Ortt]

Yep, major type on my part

I corrected it to state STD 2 IF declared

[Windtalker1]

Refiring and looking kinda nice http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html for alot of rain in S Florida

[HarlequinBoy]

---
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1005 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 70 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AT 19N87W. THIS LOW SITS ALONG
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE
SRN GULF. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO AND FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER... MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING N/NE INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO ...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT FORMS...TROPICAL OR
NON-TROPICAL ...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS WRN
CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-86W.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WHOHOOOO!!! COME ON BABY!!!!!
Develop Heavy Rains invest 92l!!!!!!!
Bring South Florida some Good Heavy rains!!!!!
Yea BABY Yea!!!!!!!

I'm just excited about finally seeing rain, as it has not rained
in over 2 months.

[MusicCityMan]

Bring Central Florida some heavy rains PLEASE.. Maybe 3-5 inches! come on rain..

[benny]

System looks pretty interesting.. 1005 mb or so at the nw carib buoy and the low center must be nearby. big 24 pressure fall too. it doesn't look particularly tropical though.. an ugly sheared thing. it needs to get its act together before moving too far out of the Caribbean if it will do much I think.. the shear is wicked in most of the Gulf.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I do believe Lake Ockeechobee and Southward could see
upwards of 6-8 inches of rain from this system...it
has a huge area of rain that will last 3 days long
and could be very heavy rain with embedded
thunderstorms.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I am almost afraid to go to sleep, having flashbacks of what happened with Alberto last year when he suddenly blew up into quite a system after looking similarly and in a similar pattern. Can something like that happen to our little 92 Invest too?

Of course, like Alberto, if it does suddenly get its act together overnight, it will then progress into a high shear environment which will rapidly weaken it.

[southerngreen]

I just hope the SE gets rain from this, period!

The scary thing is that a tropical system will probably be the ONLY way you'll get out of the drought. We can only just p
pray that they will be storms and not hurricanes!

when the wildfires were SO bad two weeks ago, the official in waycross said that they felt it would take at least 2 tropical events to put out the fires completely (with 9-10" of rainfall) because the muck/peat in the ground was actually burning.
unfortunately, if all the rain comes at once it's not going to do much good. most of it will run off. our property perks very well (absorbs quickly) but when we get a heavy rain the majority of it runs off. plus the fact that when the ground is SO dry, it doesn't absorb as fast as when it's even slightly moist. (ever try watering a potted plant that has completely dried up? the water just runs through) even with all that said, WE NEED IT!! 1 inch or 10 inches, i'd go out and dance in it.

[drudd1]

Bring Central Florida some heavy rains PLEASE.. Maybe 3-5 inches! come on rain..

I agree, please send some rain!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am almost afraid to go to sleep, having flashbacks of what happened with Alberto last year when he suddenly blew up into quite a system after looking similarly and in a similar pattern. Can something like that happen to our little 92 Invest too?

Of course, like Alberto, if it does suddenly get its act together overnight, it will then progress into a high shear environment which will rapidly weaken it.

I don't think it'll be as strong as alberto's peak of 70 mph, but the thunderstorms
with this system, regardless of whether or not it develops, may contain
gusts of 35-40 mph...40 mph gusts are being forecasted
along the Pinellas County Coastline:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NOAA Site Forecast:


Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East southeast wind between 21 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then isolated showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East southeast wind 16 to 23 mph becoming west southwest. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: Isolated showers before 8am, then isolated showers after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86. West wind 21 to 24 mph decreasing to between 10 and 13 mph. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[medic8ed]

The High School where I teach (south face of Tampa Bay) is graduating Friday night,
but apart from that, I say BRING IT ON!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Looks like a circulation under -80 C cloud tops!!!
An Area of Blown Up Convection!
Tropical Depression by tomorrow night????
What do you all think??

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think that is their typical, extremely conservative forecast until the models are firmer on the low center destination. Their rainfall rates look extremely low. If it were to clip the southern FL penninsula, then maybe that little bit, but I am expecting a lot more rain than that!

[jlauderdal]

Yep, major type on my part

I corrected it to state STD 2 IF declared

I would prefer to keep any STD's away from me, thanks.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think that is their typical, extremely conservative forecast until the models are firmer on the low center destination. Their rainfall rates look extremely low. If it were to clip the southern FL penninsula, then maybe that little bit, but I am expecting a lot more rain than that!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Oh yes I do think we'll see a good 5-6 inches of rain and perhaps wind gusts to 50 mph
in stronger thunderstorms especially with the daytime heating Saturday
afternoon...some of the storms on Saturday afternoon-
with lot's of moisture and intense lift and
trough inducement could contain tropical storm
force wind gusts along with torrential rains...

As for South Florida, the rain will start sooner and be
even heavier I think- up to 8 inches over south florida
also the thunderstorms there could contain gusts to 50
mph or greater.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

NRL at 00:00z has the center at 19.5n-85.0w,closer to the area of convection.