INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[cpdaman]

anyone have any links to shear maps

and what direction the shear in the gulf is oriented i.e sw-ne

[Ivanhater]

wow, its pulling the thunderstorms from the south up to it...in a few hours the blobs will connect, guess we will see what it will look like in the morn...

Can you give me the link to this webiste please?

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... imate=true

[rjgator]

Shear map links


24 hour trend

Current

[canetracker]

I sure hope that Florida will get some rain out of 92L! Post Katrina we were in a drought situation, however, it was not as bad as what Florida is enduring. This will be a wait and see game, but hopefully this will pan out for Florida rain wise.
BTW Bob Breck, our local met, is looking for a S. Florida hit. But listening to him, New Orleans has a less than 1% chance of ever seeing a storm like Katrina in our live times. So, take his advice for what it is worth!?

[rjgator]

SFWMD Models

Looks like a shift to the south

[skysummit]

By the way it's moving right now, it may miss Florida all together!

[NDG]

SFWMD Models

Looks like a shift to the south

That's because they have relocated the low center to the east of the previous location, but it will generally move on a northward motion.

[fci]

By the way it's moving right now, it may miss Florida all together!

Boy lets hope not!
We SO badly need the rain here.
Can't water lawns, lakes are drying up (can see the drainage pipes and sprinkler pipes and sand in the community lakes all around the area).
We need a TD or nice slow moving blob disturbance to just dump on us.
I'll take 2-3 inches of rain a day for about 2 weeks!
This system would be a great start!!!!
And then about 3 more evenly spaced out about a week apart.

[cpdaman]

thanks for the shear map kind sir

this thing will move north the new forecast center caused the models to shift they will more than likely bounce back and forth but move in the vicinity of the lake IMO

is that shear blowing storm tops eastward? lets ask someone smart

[NDG]

By the way it's moving right now, it may miss Florida all together!

No, I still think it is still moving towards the gen area of FL, higher level winds are pushing the deep convection away from the area of low pressure center.

[boca]

Skysummit I see what your seeing missing Florida to the SE and nailing the Bahamas. This system is moving ENE not north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[T-man]

I think it's safe to say that rain is a lock for Florida this weekend.

I think.

[canetracker]

SFWMD Models

Looks like a shift to the south

That's because they have relocated the low center to the east of the previous location, but it will generally move on a northward motion.

Agree NDG! All models are suggesting this shift to the North. Will check back in the morning to see, but am still rooting for you guys in Florida to get some much needed rain.

[jaxfladude]

Well one thing is for certain, Billy Donovan will stay in the state of Florida, as the new coach of the Orlando Magic.
Now back to Invest 92L......

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow.

I have to say that's an absolutely awesome sight with the sat pic someone posted. It's always interesting to witness a Low completely siphoning off convection that way.


I have to give it to 92l and 90l for that matter and I think the pro mets here can agree. The sheer persistence these two lows has shown us in the usually harsh month of May is impressive.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The NRL has the LLC at 19.6 north/85.1 west. Which would put it on the southwest edge of the convection. Really, lattest quickscats show a west,east and southly winds so far; expect a northly down the west side of the system. Also the trough/shear zone is moving slowly eastward at about 5 knots or so. Which is going to force this system to not move west of it, it could very well move northeastward as the trough is setting up in a way that will force it to do so. Do I think this will become a cyclone? If it moves northeastward it has a better chance to stay out of the shear north of Cuba for the next 24 hours or so. In which should increase its chances of some development. Latest quickscats also show 35-40 knot winds on the eastern side; so it would very likely be Barry. Any ways the chances are not super high...Also once it gets into the Atlantic above 25 north, the sst's are not warm enough to support it. Also it should be sucked up by the frontal system by then....If lucky maybe not.

[boca]

We might not get rain after all the way this system is moving now.

[Aric Dunn]

Skysummit I see what your seeing missing Florida to the SE and nailing the Bahamas. This system is moving ENE not north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

sorry to tell everyone this ...but anything at the surface right now is not moving very much in any direction .. there are most likely multiple swirls in there .. anywhere from just off shore Honduras to just offshore northern believe ..... the low level circ ( if you could track any one praticular area.. ) is in that general area.. its not under that burst of convection... its not heading ene over the Bahamas .. everything that you see moving is in the mid a upper levels.. !! all data suggests I repeat the LLC ( broad LLC) is still in the vicinity of 19 to 19.6 n and still relatively near the coast of belize........

[Aric Dunn]

now time will tell .. if it starts moving it will likely move NNE for a time .. and then depending on what happens with the CUT OFF LOW IN THE NW GULF .. will tell us the ultimate outcome.. and right now the ull is being left behind and is almost completely cut off .. which complicates things greatly .. because there may not be enough energy to lift what ever is left of the system out tomorrow..... we may see it hang around a little longer .. considering that steering current are pretty weak and that ULL is not moving and if that does nor move .. our system most likely will not move much either/....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Skysummit I see what your seeing missing Florida to the SE and nailing the Bahamas. This system is moving ENE not north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

sorry to tell everyone this ...but anything at the surface right now is not moving very much in any direction .. there are most likely multiple swirls in there .. anywhere from just off shore Honduras to just offshore northern believe ..... the low level circ ( if you could track any one praticular area.. ) is in that general area.. its not under that burst of convection... its not heading ene over the Bahamas .. everything that you see moving is in the mid a upper levels.. !! all data suggests I repeat the LLC ( broad LLC) is still in the vicinity of 19 to 19.6 n and still relatively near the coast of belize........

Truthfully the NRL has the center at 19.5 north/85.1 west...Which is just under the southwest edge of convection. THERE IS A VERY VERY BROAD LLC/Low pressure area from 83-89 west and from 17-23 north through out the area. But That area near the convection is the area to watch. Also the shear/trough is moving eastward which is cutting off how far to the west this could track northward. I don't think it could track any farther then maybe the Keys or maybe the area Charley hit as its going across.