Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:boca wrote:Skysummit I see what your seeing missing Florida to the SE and nailing the Bahamas. This system is moving ENE not north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
sorry to tell everyone this ...but anything at the surface right now is not moving very much in any direction .. there are most likely multiple swirls in there .. anywhere from just off shore Honduras to just offshore northern believe ..... the low level circ ( if you could track any one praticular area.. ) is in that general area.. its not under that burst of convection... its not heading ene over the Bahamas .. everything that you see moving is in the mid a upper levels.. !! all data suggests I repeat the LLC ( broad LLC) is still in the vicinity of 19 to 19.6 n and still relatively near the coast of belize........
Truthfully the NRL has the center at 19.5 north/85.1 west...Which is just under the southwest edge of convection. THERE IS A VERY VERY BROAD LLC/Low pressure area from 83-89 west and from 17-23 north through out the area. But That area near the convection is the area to watch. Also the shear/trough is moving eastward which is cutting off how far to the west this could track northward. I don't think it could track any farther then maybe the Keys or maybe the area Charley hit as its going across.
that trough upper low shear what ever you want to refer it as .. is cutting off and may not move much at all ..... no east no west less likely north and south... so right now .. we have some issues we need to watch.. first off that cut off ULL.. is the big player!! overnight will be the time to watch what happens with it..