INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[ncupsscweather]

The new area does look better.

[southerngreen]

well, we DO have an active weather map for the first day of the season! the carribbean is a cauldron and those poor folks in the KA-OK-TX area just keeping getting pounded.

i think it's going to be an exciting year.

[Thunder44]

It looks like our low is moving north into the Yucatan Channel. The winds have switched to SSW at buoy 42056. And NWS/TPC place the low in that area:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html (click on fronts)

There is alot of convection, but none of it appears to be getting better organized since yesterday.

[Thunder44]

First TWO of the season mentions this area:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010909
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...WESTERN CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[johngaltfla]

At this point in time, I can not complain. I would like for this storm to develop a little and be a slow moving 10 inches of rain per day type tropical storm. We are in bad shape here in Florida and it would take several storms just to get our rain levels caught up.

But where this one is forming is disturbing. If this were late September, October or November, it would not be good for our area.....

[Cookiely]

The rain sounds wonderful but we can do without the possibility of tornadoes.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 010741
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE GOMEX LOW WITH UKMET/ECMWF STILL
PREFERRED SOLN. WITH THIS...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND STARTS TO ABSORB INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW. AT THE SFC...THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY SAT AND THEN NE ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE DAY
SAT INTO EARLY SUN. IT THEN CONTINUES NE INTO THE ATLANTIC AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL. HAVE 80 POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR TODAY AS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD OVER SOUTH FL LIFTS
NORTHWARD...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
SCATTERED NORTH. 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES CENTRAL AND SOUTH. FOR SAT BEST RAIN CHANCES LIFT NORTH AS
THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE LOW.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS WILL HAVE
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THROUGH SAT. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BECOME BREEZY/WINDY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH TIGHTENS.
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADO THREATS WITH THE CONVECTION TONIGHT/SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-THU)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THIS WILL ADVECT WARM MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH DAYTIME HEATING GENERATING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR...AND VERY WARM STICKY
NIGHTS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BECOMING THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

[Nimbus]

There is still no clear low level circulation this morning.

Yucatan channel quikscat

Belize quikscat

I would describe the broad area of low surface pressure as a surface trough extending northeast from 17.5W 87.5N.

Pressures have not changed much overnight at buoy 42056

Since the trough has not moved much perhaps the timing will be adjusted a little slower in the morning model runs?

[DrewFL]

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
611 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007


FL...

THERE CONTS TO BE A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE NRN YUCATAN. SIMILAR TO PAST
RUNS...BELIEVE THE GFS IS TOO QUICK TO BRING HEAVY PCPN INTO FL
DUE TO GRID SCALE CONVECTION PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE HEAVY
PCPN WL PRESS NWD ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA DAY 1 AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NEWD ON THE
ERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THE NAM CONTS TO BE A WRN OUTLIER AND KEEPS
THE BULK OF ITS PCPN OFFSHORE ACRS THE ERN GULF DAY 1. ATTM...WE
ARE PREFERRING A SFC LOW TRACK FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE
NAM...CLOSER TO THE LATEST UKMET AND 12Z THU EC. THIS WOULD FAVOR
HEAVIER PCPN THAN THE NAM IS DEPICTING OVR CNTRL TO SRN FL. THE
GFS AMTS OVR THE SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA APPEAR TOO HEAVY DUE
TO GRID SCALE PROBLEMS.

That's OK. Just get close enough to drop all that moisture in the eastern side.....please.

[DrewFL]

Probably won't be enough daytime heating with all the cloud cover for a severe tornadic threat. Unless something drastically changes the SPC only has Florida under a less than 5% threat.

...FL...
STRONG INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FL. WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE STORM ROTATION WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS...AND UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST LOW WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

[wxman57]

It would appear that wind shear is just too high for any tropical development of this system. Thunderstorms remain disorganized, and there is no sign of an LLC. Pressures have not dropped neat the NE Yucatan. It's quite likely that the recon mission will be cancelled. Nothing to investigate. Looks more like thunderstorms stretched out along a sharp upper-level trof now. Good news for Florida is that it'll still bring beneficial rain to most of the peninsula over the next 36 hours. But it doesn't look like much chance of becoming a tropical storm any more. Just too much shear.

[DrewFL]

At least the 06Z has the extrapolated forward motion shifted to the NE now.
SFWMD

[Aquawind]

Local Mets are going with a quicker movement off to the NE over central florida and now have lowered rain chances here to 60% Sat night and only 20% Sunday.. In addition to the imeadiate precip to Florida it looks like the LL moisture will finaly stick around afterwards and we will have a summer pattern with lows in the mid 70's forecast at this time.

[Frank2]

Yes - so far not much but light rain here in South Florida, so, I'm not too optimistic that this will be a heavy rain event...

The thought came to me this morning that apparently there's still some dry air at the lower levels, since any rain falling since late yesterday has been melt- er, evaporating before it reaches the ground...

Even the local radars only show widespread light rain at this time, so...

[Decomdoug]

[font=Arial] [/font]
Come on rain! Port St. Lucie is ready and waiting.

[boca]

Looks like the apparent low is in the Yucatan channel moving NNE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[tgenius]

boca you getting much rain up there? Down in Miami we are still waiting.. though it does look to be finally coming soon..

[boca]

boca you getting much rain up there? Down in Miami we are still waiting.. though it does look to be finally coming soon..

I'm just getting intermitent drizzle enough to wet the pavement. We need the heavy rain to fill the lake O. It looks like well get heavier rain this afternoon judging by the satelite pic.

[Thunder44]

It would appear that wind shear is just too high for any tropical development of this system. Thunderstorms remain disorganized, and there is no sign of an LLC. Pressures have not dropped neat the NE Yucatan. It's quite likely that the recon mission will be cancelled. Nothing to investigate. Looks more like thunderstorms stretched out along a sharp upper-level trof now. Good news for Florida is that it'll still bring beneficial rain to most of the peninsula over the next 36 hours. But it doesn't look like much chance of becoming a tropical storm any more. Just too much shear.

I agree. I think it's far more likely to be a non-tropical system.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

It is definately gloomy up here in Tampa Bay, but as of yet, no rain.

[O Town]

I don't think we are going to get that much guys. I hope I am wrong though.