INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[NDG]

It would appear that wind shear is just too high for any tropical development of this system. Thunderstorms remain disorganized, and there is no sign of an LLC. Pressures have not dropped neat the NE Yucatan. It's quite likely that the recon mission will be cancelled. Nothing to investigate. Looks more like thunderstorms stretched out along a sharp upper-level trof now. Good news for Florida is that it'll still bring beneficial rain to most of the peninsula over the next 36 hours. But it doesn't look like much chance of becoming a tropical storm any more. Just too much shear.

I agree. I think it's far more likely to be a non-tropical system.

At least subtropical that is, IMO, until it gets closer to the Carolinas or past the Carolinas that it will become non-tropical.

[Decomdoug]

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Has looked threatening here in Port St. Lucie since yesterday, but not a drop yet. At least there is a chance.

[Noah]

It seems that Tampa and Sarasota where I live the clouds and rain just go around us. I am watching the radar and its still staying west of the bay area, how strange. My friends in Port charlotte have had rain severla times already in the month of May, not alot but some.
Is there some sort of west winds that are in the Bay area all the time????????????

[Terry]

It sure is a joy to see moisture on the radar and satellite views for a change. It beat the heck out of what we've been seeing this year.

[DrewFL]

Oh yeah, 12Z spaghettis went left! This should get interesting.......SFWMD

[btangy]

It would appear that wind shear is just too high for any tropical development of this system. Thunderstorms remain disorganized, and there is no sign of an LLC. Pressures have not dropped neat the NE Yucatan. It's quite likely that the recon mission will be cancelled. Nothing to investigate. Looks more like thunderstorms stretched out along a sharp upper-level trof now. Good news for Florida is that it'll still bring beneficial rain to most of the peninsula over the next 36 hours. But it doesn't look like much chance of becoming a tropical storm any more. Just too much shear.

I agree. The setup is still quite baroclinic (non-tropical) with an upper level low off the the W. In order for subtropical development to occur, the upper level low would have to be more co-located with the lower level disturbance, which won't happen. A non-tropical low pressure system is the most likely scenario.

[NDG]

Oh yeah, 12Z spaghettis went left! This should get interesting.......SFWMD

I never bought the GFS track of the low, it was trying to weaken the ridge too fast, a few people last night were starting to think it was going to miss FL, just like the CMC & Euro has been advertising for the last couple of days of a more northern-central FL track of the low pressure center, that would mean that at least central & southern FL would see much beneficial rain, I wouldn't rule out some good rain as well for northern FL & southern GA. This is some good deep tropical moisture coming up,

[Opal storm]

Oh yeah, 12Z spaghettis went left! This should get interesting.......SFWMD

I think its about time to throw the models out for this one. It's obviously being swept NE into SW/central FL, should be over land tonight.

[wjs3]

Oh yeah, 12Z spaghettis went left! This should get interesting.......SFWMD

I think its about time to throw the models out for this one. It's obviously being swept NE into SW/central FL, should be over land tonight.

I agree that the typical tropical model suites (like the one from the SFWMD) are not terribly useful here. There's not really a good center for any model to get a hold of, and it's not (at all) clear that this is a tropcial system, so bunches of tropical models on that page are out the window. The big dynamical models (especially ones that are initializing this better than others) are the way to go until this starts to look something more like a tropical low and less like a cluster of convection resulting from baroclinic processes.

Haven't looked at enough this morning to agree/disagree with statement that it will be swept into SW/Central Fla.

WJS3

[cpdaman]

frank2 you brought up a great point about the dry air evaporating the rain that was trying to move in

usually this isn't an issue for s fl but last evening nite was a case in point where a wall of rain evaporated as it made it up to about the central keys however atmosphere is becoming more saturated this morning

also latest visible to me looks like low may have moved up to around 23N 85.5 west at least maybe the start of a surface low

maybe CENTRAL AND SW FL will take the brunt if the storm moves up and just nw of tampa

relative humidities are highest on the west coast of florida as welll as the keys (70's and 80's) while the east coast has lower humidities generally in the 50's and 60's

[dizzyfish]

Does anyone know what time we can expect info from Recon?

[boca]

Rain looks like its all over South Florida. I don't think most of it is reaching the ground.Here in Boca Raton its just overcast. Unless the atmosphere starts to moisten up this will be another non event.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

In another thread with the rainfall estimate most areas will get between 1/2 to 1" of rain if it keeps on evaporated bfore hitting the ground.

[tracyswfla]

Over here on the West Coast (ft. Myers) we have been getting steady light rain.

[Chacor]

First Dvorak numbers...

01/1145 UTC 22.2N 85.9W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Jevo]

Rain looks like its all over South Florida. I don't think most of it is reaching the ground.Here in Boca Raton its just overcast. Unless the atmosphere starts to moisten up this will be another non event.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

In another thread with the rainfall estimate most areas will get between 1/2 to 1" of rain if it keeps on evaporated bfore hitting the ground.

I have to agree with my esteemed colleague to the north.... No rain atm here in Coral Springs... GR Level 3 has max tops at 15k -20k likely evaporating on the way down.. Looks like the rain is wrapping around the penninsula and staying over the water

[NDG]

Rain looks like its all over South Florida. I don't think most of it is reaching the ground.Here in Boca Raton its just overcast. Unless the atmosphere starts to moisten up this will be another non event.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

In another thread with the rainfall estimate most areas will get between 1/2 to 1" of rain if it keeps on evaporated bfore hitting the ground.

I have to agree with my esteemed colleague to the north.... No rain atm here in Coral Springs... GR Level 3 has max tops at 15k -20k likely evaporating on the way down.. Looks like the rain is wrapping around the penninsula and staying over the water

Be patient, lower mid levels of the atmosphere were very dry yesterday, models tried to move in the rain quicker than it was going to, this evening and tomorrow will be another story. Deep tropical moisture is just a few miles away, moving northward.

[southerngreen]

First Dvorak numbers...

01/1145 UTC 22.2N 85.9W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

i know the image, but how is it interpreted? what does it mean?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-bd.html

[O Town]

First Dvorak numbers...

01/1145 UTC 22.2N 85.9W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

i know the image, but how is it interpreted? what does it mean?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-bd.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
Hope that helps.

[NDG]

First Dvorak numbers...

01/1145 UTC 22.2N 85.9W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

i know the image, but how is it interpreted? what does it mean?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-bd.html

Is a technique using satellite photos of a developing tropical disturbance, T1.0 means that it is very weak, 25knot winds, not enough to be a depression, but its pressure is low enough that if it had better satellite presentation it would be a T2.5, 35 knots.

[cpdaman]

anyone else see the surface low turning now at 23N 85.5 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

this is a surface low , right?