INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[pojo]

Does anyone know what time we can expect info from Recon?

When the NHC starts receiving the reports from Recon... then you can expect to see it.

[Thunder44]

anyone else see the surface low turning now at 23N 85.5 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

this is a surface low , right?

I see it. It's trying to get a little better organized, but it looks more non-tropical to me. Anyway, TPC still seems interested in it. They scheduled another flight in the GOM tomorrow:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 01 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-009

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 02/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA CYCLONE
C. 02/0915Z
D. 27.0N 85.0W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[NDG]

anyone else see the surface low turning now at 23N 85.5 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

this is a surface low , right?

Yes, you are correct, NE Yucatan reporting WNW winds now.

[punkyg]

anyone else see the surface low turning now at 23N 85.5 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

this is a surface low , right?

I think i see something, but can you tell where you see it?

[Noles2006]

I see what you're talking about, cpda, and it looks like a surface low to me.

Looks to be heading pretty much due North.

[Stormavoider]

I think this ship does!


ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F mi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec °T
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 1400 24.60 -85.50 0 0 70 29.9 - 3.3 4.0 - - 29.80 +0.00 78.1 78.1 - 2.5 8 - 4.9 9.0 70 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[southerngreen]

thanks! there is always so much to learn.

[Thunder44]

So according to the 11:30am TWO, the plane should be heading out today.

[Chacor]

ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

Hmmm.....

[Thunder44]

ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

Hmmm.....

91L looked better than this system.

[punkyg]

ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

Hmmm.....

91L looked better than this system.

You got that right.

[southerngreen]

i do NOT want to think about it. i am so not ready for this.

"Something is indeed brewing in the tropics. What it might be is not so obvious. Satellite pictures overnight last night and this morning show vigorous thunderstorms clustering in the northwest Caribbean, and surface weather observations show that the barometric pressures are lowering a bit. Both of these are signs that some kind of tropical low pressure system is trying to get organized. Will it become a tropical depression????? Will it become a tropical storm???? If it becomes a tropical storm, will it get named??? Yes...there is a bit of sarcasm there since there have been storms in the past that I thought should have been named and weren't. In any case, it does look like the system will be steered northward and will start to bring rain to South Florida today and to Central Florida tomorrow. There is a chance some parts of the Sunshine State will get 4 or more inches of rain and that is truly what the doctor (that's me) ordered. There will also be gusty winds accompanying some of the showers, and all it takes is a wind gust to 39 mph for tropical storm conditions to briefly exist."
Dr. Joe S.> accuweather.com

[Brent]

ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

Hmmm.....

91L looked better than this system.

Yeah. Oh well, at least we'll have some data from recon.

[Noles2006]

i do NOT want to think about it. i am so not ready for this.

Something is indeed brewing in the tropics. What it might be is not so obvious. Satellite pictures overnight last night and this morning show vigorous thunderstorms clustering in the northwest Caribbean, and surface weather observations show that the barometric pressures are lowering a bit. Both of these are signs that some kind of tropical low pressure system is trying to get organized. Will it become a tropical depression????? Will it become a tropical storm???? If it becomes a tropical storm, will it get named??? Yes...there is a bit of sarcasm there since there have been storms in the past that I thought should have been named and weren't. In any case, it does look like the system will be steered northward and will start to bring rain to South Florida today and to Central Florida tomorrow. There is a chance some parts of the Sunshine State will get 4 or more inches of rain and that is truly what the doctor (that's me) ordered. There will also be gusty winds accompanying some of the showers, and all it takes is a wind gust to 39 mph for tropical storm conditions to briefly exist.

Calm down! This system is nothing to worry about at all... it's actually a blessing!

[cpdaman]

i have been looking at shear maps and tendency's since last nite and it appears the high shear enviornment in the SE gulf is still present to a degree http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html , HOWEVER the area of highest shear appears to be retreating to the north. as you can see compared to where the shear was at this time yesterday http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-8.html

you can see this on the shear tentency as well as looking at the current shear relative to that of yesterdayas shown above

i.e where the low is centered today 23 85.5 had high shear yesterday (50-60) but now is down to about 30mph of shear and also the shear appears to be going in close to the same direction (NE) as the system which would probably make it more like 20 mph of shear according to my amateur and experimental analysis

i think however this relatively low shear zone will be eroding as the trough in the mid west slides east and seems to be edging to the east now (anyone who understands this phenomena care to comment) because i 'm not sure if i do

[seaswing]

i have been looking at shear maps and tendency's since last nite and it appears the high shear enviornment in the SE gulf is still present to a degree http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html , HOWEVER the area of highest shear appears to be retreating to the north. as you can see compared to where the shear was at this time yesterday http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-8.html

you can see this on the shear tentency as well as looking at the current shear relative to that of yesterdayas shown above

i.e where the low is centered today 23 85.5 had high shear yesterday (50-60) but now is down to about 30mph of shear and also the shear appears to be going in close to the same direction (NE) as the system which would probably make it more like 20 mph of shear according to my amateur and experimental analysis

i think however this relatively low shear zone will be eroding as the ULL seems to be edging to the east now although i think that will keep the storm moving North north east and maybe not cross the central peninsula but slide just west of tampa and up north central florida then move east

(anyone who understands this phenomena care to comment)

I am just VERY excited that it actually looks like we are going to get some RAIN! a little wind, maybe even some gusts but nothing to be concerned about at this point. Just happy that air is getting saturated and the wildfires may be controlled...... This IS truly a blessing and all I can say is BRING IT ON! maybe even a few more TS to get our water tables back up. Might take a few to actually get us where we need to be.

Seas

[Aric Dunn]

ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

Hmmm.....

91L looked better than this system.

Yeah. Oh well, at least we'll have some data from recon.

its not always about what it looks like .. its all about if the system is a warm core system or not... in general.. the closer you get the center the warmer.. the higher the dew point and so on.. when recon gets out there and finds a "warm" then it would likely be a tropical system .. but if they go out and find and rather flat temperature and dew point field then it would be a sub tropical system .. and if they go out and find that all the latent heat is being pushed away then it would probably be just a baroclinic type system.

[Frank2]

Here this morning's sounding from Miami:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/mfl.gif

note the wind barbs above 200 mb - talk about shear - those are 50 and 60-knot west winds, folks...

[wjs3]

Here this morning's sounding from Miami:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/mfl.gif

note the wind barbs above 200 mb - talk about shear - those are 50 and 60-knot west winds, folks...

It's the low level shear that interests me in the sounding. It's very strong at those levels too. I am no expert on supercells, but that sure looks like trouble.

WJS3