INVEST 92L SE GOM [NRL: 02L.BARRY], waiting for 5 pm NHC

[Chacor]

The first thread has reached 25 pages, so let's continue here.

[windstorm99]

So far those winds would appear for TD status but we have to wait and see if they can close of a center.

[Aric Dunn]

here is more minobs... notice the increase in temps as they approach the center

18: 18:02:30; 24.2°N 85.5°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -240 ft; Wnd: E (95°) @ 46mph (Max: 46mph); T: 73F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 801ft
19: 18:03:00; 24.2°N 85.5°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -240 ft; Wnd: E (96°) @ 46mph (Max: 46mph); T: 73F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 801ft
20: 18:03:30; 24.2°N 85.5°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -236 ft; Wnd: E (94°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); T: 72F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 807ft


verses the last set

[WmE]

With the temperature increase the low seems to be warm core or at least hybrid.

[brunota2003]

FYI...looking into the future, here is a screen shot of my local area's weather on sunday night, according to the models:

Anyone see what I do? Like the well defined small center of our current 92L sitting over NE NC? I just thought it was cool, never seen a small circulation like that on the local models. Here is the link to the graphic:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ndfd/graphical/sectors/mhx.php

[Aric Dunn]

With the temperature increase the low seems to be warm core or at least hybrid.

72 is just about right for warm core.. thats normal

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A WELCOME WET START FOR THE BEGINNING OF HURRICANE SEASON...

.SYNOPSIS...MEAN RIDGING TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS TROUGHING
APPROACHES FROM THE WSW. A LONG WAVE MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GOMEX...AND IS PUMPING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OUR CWA. PWATS ARE
CREEPING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BETWEEN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
NWD WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ON ITS ENE SIDE.
LOCALLY A FEW CONVERGENT BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS OUR
SOUTH FL ZONES AND ARE GRADUALLY ADVANCING NWD UNDER INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...
WET WEATHER ON THE WAY AS THE SFC LOW IN THE SSE GOMEX GETS PICKED
UP BY THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH AND IS STEERED NNE ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA LATE SAT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD FROM THE
TROPICS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AND AM TRENDING THIS FORECAST TOWARD THE
ECMWF MODEL WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST GFS...AND THE SLOWER FARTHER WEST NAM. FAVORING THE ECMWF WOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF THE RESULTANT SFC LOW NNE INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX
LATE SAT AFTN...CROSSING THE N FL PEN SAT NIGHT...OR POSSIBLY HAVE
THE CENTER REDEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE FIRST COAST EARLY SUN.
REGARDLESS...SYSTEM WILL NOT BE PURELY TROPICAL BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA DUE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF EVENING SHRA
ACROSS OUR GA ZONES...WITH STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS OUR FL ZONES BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND DIVERGENCE
INCREASE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT...AND COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAVE CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS (80%) ALONG THE FL
COAST THROUGH EARLY SAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES BY DAYBREAK SAT. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP MINS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO INDICATED
AREAS OF FOG DUE TO INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND LULLS N OF
A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT.

SAT & SAT EVENING THROUGH 06Z...THESE WILL BE THE WET PERIODS FOR
OUR AREA AS UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING (DIVERGENCE) PHASES WITH LIFT ON
THE ENE SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING SFC ALL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WITH PWATS AOB 2 + INCHES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OUR FL AND COASTAL ZONES TO CATEGORICAL AND CONTINUED WITH
HIGH END LIKELY (60-70%) ACROSS OUR INLAND GA ZONES WHERE BELIEVE
JET FORCING WILL BE WEAKER. INDICATED ISOLD TS FOR SAT AND SAT
EVENING... AND THERE IS THE POSSIBLY OF A FEW STRONG/SVR MINI
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE HIGH HELICITY & LOW LEVEL CAPE
ENVIRON SAT AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS OUR COASTAL ZONES AND
INLAND NE FL. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SAT AND SAT EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1-2 INCHES...WITH
ISOLD POCKETS UP TO 3-4 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEG UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. BREEZY WINDS SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY EJECTS NNE JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH SOME TRAILING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING A LOW RAIN CHANCE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. WITH MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA AND A
PATTERN SHIFT TO WLY STEERING FLOW...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
80S UNDER MOSTLY TO OCCASIONALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUN AFTN ACROSS
OUR GA ZONES...WHILE A TRAILING MOISTURE PLUME WILL LINGER ACROSS
OUR FL ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HOLDING TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S FORM
SGJ-OCF. HAVE ADVERTISED TSRA FOR THESE PERIODS.

[ALhurricane]

FYI...looking into the future, here is a screen shot of my local area's weather on sunday night, according to the models:

Anyone see what I do? Like the well defined small center of our current 92L sitting over NE NC? I just thought it was cool, never seen a small circulation like that on the local models. Here is the link to the graphic:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ndfd/graphical/sectors/mhx.php

That is actually the current NWS Morehead City graphical forecast. It is not pure model output.

[cpdaman]

appears to me brunt of heavy rain will be in the tampa/st pete to naples corridor up through orlando with 3-5 inches of widespread rain even possibly heavier amounts up to 8 inches since this is a slow moving event (what a godsend for this area) and this ONE storm will make a difference in the drought esp. for the lake ok. area.

think there will be a wide spread 1.5 -2.5 over SE florida up to melbourne IMO now

big bend of florida should also get a good pounding of rain as well across to gainsville -daytona-jacksonville corridor, there is even hope for S and SE GA now IMO


i think there will be a sharp cut-off of rain to the west of center i.e tallahassee

[JonathanBelles]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
137 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...WELCOME RAINS ON THEIR WAY...

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF HAVING THE
EXPECTED EFFECT ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED WEST OF
CUBA. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS
SHIFTED EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS LOW
APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH REGARD TO HYBRID LOW SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA. GIVEN
INCONSISTENCIES PREFER TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...WHICH MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET. THIS
FORECAST BRINGS THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND ANY WINDY WEATHER WELL
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY STORMS OR
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AS WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING...40-50 MPH...AND RAINFALL TOTALS
AREAWIDE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING THE LOW TO BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF
TAMPA BAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING.
CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING...AS COASTAL SITE
FORECASTS ARE ONLY SHOWING AT MOST A SURGE OF 1 FOOT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR CHANGES AS WELL AS FOR TIMING WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.

SUNDAY ONLY HAVE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW WILL BE
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO BE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP UNDER
SUNNIER SKIES AND FLOW MOVING IN OFF THE GULF...EXPECT MUGGY AND
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.

[drezee]

Intersting Ship report:

01/18 C6FM5 23.7 -85.1 25.0 090 50 1005.0-20.0 26.0 * C6FM5

yeah 50 knots...likely not good data

[N2Storms]

[quote="cpdaman"]appears to me brunt of heavy rain will be in the tampa/st pete to naples corridor up through orlando with 3-5 inches of widespread rain even possibly heavier amounts up to 8 inches since this is a slow moving event (what a godsend for this area) and this ONE storm will make a difference in the drought esp. for the lake ok. area.

think there will be a wide spread 1.5 -2.5 over SE florida up to melbourne IMO now

big bend of florida should also get a good pounding of rain as well across to gainsville -daytona-jacksonville corridor, there is even hope for S and SE GA now IMO


i think there will be a sharp cut-off of rain to the west of center i.e tallahassee[/quote]


Unfortunately that is pretty much it...we are absolutely parched here in NW FL but the mets are saying that we'll maybe get a random shower or two from this system but nothing significant.

[Chacor]

01/1645 UTC 23.7N 85.8W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[jdray]

NWS Tampa Bay and NWS JAX both are going with the ECWMF model it seems.

Looks like the center of this mess will be coming in around the Big Bend area with most of the rain off to the east.

Nice setup to get a good chunk of the peninsula wet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Visible shows a defined LLC, with recond finding a west wind...But the overall system looks subtropical to me, so maybe not fully tropical. 42 knots=33.6 knots at the surface or .4 knots away from tropical storm strength. So its going to be very close.

[miamicanes177]

wow Jeff Masters busted on this big time. He said it would not even become a depression (and it is likely Barry). He only gave a 20% chance of 1 named storm forming in the next 2 weeks. He issued that forecast this afternoon!

[TrekkerCC]

Visible shows a defined LLC, with recond finding a west wind...But the overall system looks subtropical to me, so maybe not fully tropical. 42 knots=33.6 knots at the surface or .4 knots away from tropical storm strength. So its going to be very close.

Well, the warm core (low) tropical system has warmer temperatures near its center than the outside surroundings. The VDM will be crucial to determining whether or not this is a warm core.

[x-y-no]

Visible shows a defined LLC, with recond finding a west wind...But the overall system looks subtropical to me, so maybe not fully tropical. 42 knots=33.6 knots at the surface or .4 knots away from tropical storm strength. So its going to be very close.

Sattelite presentation does look subtropical, but the temperature/dewpoint profile looks tropical.

It'll be interesting to see what they say. I'm betting on TS Barry at this point.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it has a warm core looking at the recon. This really makes you question the t numbers big time, this only has a 1.0t with it...Its hard not to question them on every system.

I think we will have tropical storm barry, but that is up to the nhc.

[x-y-no]

wow Jeff Masters busted on this big time. He said it would not even become a depression (and it is likely Barry). He only gave a 20% chance of 1 named storm forming in the next 2 weeks. He issued that forecast this afternoon!

I don't fault him - I was thinking the same this morning. This thing is better structured than I thought.