INVEST 92L SE GOM [NRL: 02L.BARRY], waiting for 5 pm NHC

[Recurve]

Lovely rain in the Keys, started midnight last night very lightly, heavy most of the morning, tapering off some now.

Look at the visible and IR floater loops. Distinct cyclonic turning in the last frames showing the low (upper level?) midway between the Yucatan Peninsula and Key West.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[sevenleft]

Yeah it has a warm core looking at the recon. This really makes you question the t numbers big time, this only has a 1.0t with it...Its hard not to question them on every system.

I think we will have tropical storm barry, but that is up to the nhc.

Do you understand the purpose of the Dvorak numbers?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it has a warm core looking at the recon. This really makes you question the t numbers big time, this only has a 1.0t with it...Its hard not to question them on every system.

I think we will have tropical storm barry, but that is up to the nhc.

Do you understand the purpose of the Dvorak numbers?

Yes, but the recon found a tropical system.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yeah it has a warm core looking at the recon. This really makes you question the t numbers big time, this only has a 1.0t with it...Its hard not to question them on every system.

I think we will have tropical storm barry, but that is up to the nhc.

no questions asked..Facts are on the table..

[sevenleft]

Yeah it has a warm core looking at the recon. This really makes you question the t numbers big time, this only has a 1.0t with it...Its hard not to question them on every system.

I think we will have tropical storm barry, but that is up to the nhc.

Do you understand the purpose of the Dvorak numbers?

Yes, but the recon found a tropical system.

Right. But you can't compare the recon method to the satellite method. Apples and oranges.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow unbelievable...


two lows forming against the odds in unfavorable areas...and before June 1st.


If you want to look at it on my standpoint, I'm seeing two storms forming before the month of June and I'm in shock.



Based on this I really don't know whether to call this a fluke...or a precursor to the tenacity of the lows that will form this year...

[Brent]

Why are you using T-Numbers when there is a plane in there with real-time observations?

[djones65]

I'm glad I don't have the responsibility of being a NHC forecaster! What should they do? Whatever they decide will result in some form of criticism... We have a developing low pressure system which will produce "tropical storm-force" conditions along some portion of the Florida coastline and is already producing tropical storm strength winds based on marine reports over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ and click observations search for the Gulf. AF reconaissance is finding borderline tropical storm force winds, but does not have a well defined vortex fix yet. Satellite imagery shows a non-tropical looking low pressure system moving northward through the SE Gulf. If they name it subtropical storm Barry some meteorologists and weather enthusiasts will cry "foul" that NHC upgrades too many systems that are not tropical. However, if they do, the media frenzy will ensure that any residents on the coastal areas of Florida will hear about the system and take whatever precautions to protect their property or avoid the inevitable "minor" coastal flooding. If they don't name it, some are going to say, "they should have named it since the effects of this system will be the same" as if a tropical storm comes ashore. I personally do not believe it has enough tropical characteristics to warrant classification, but since most models "deepen" the storm and it potentially could affect one of the most dangerous or susceptible coastal regions to coastal flooding (Florida's Big Bend) I believe they should name it "Barry." What do the rest of you think? Should NHC upgrade systems that will produce the same effects as a tropical storm to increase preparedness for coastal residents?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it has a warm core looking at the recon. This really makes you question the t numbers big time, this only has a 1.0t with it...Its hard not to question them on every system.

I think we will have tropical storm barry, but that is up to the nhc.

Do you understand the purpose of the Dvorak numbers?

Yes, but the recon found a tropical system.

Right. But you can't compare the recon method to the satellite method. Apples and oranges.

Your right, that is why the gulf is special. Alison and many others would of never been upgraded if they where in the central Atlatnic.

[dizzyfish]

Some obs on my way up here from Tampa.

Left Tampa at 2pm - 78* (light drizzle)
Got here in Pasco about 10 mins ago - 66* (light to mod rain)
It dropped 12 degrees - that is weird I would expect that with a cold front.

Other obs

Heck of a time to find out you have a split windshield wiper.

[ALhurricane]

Well the evidence now is pretty supportive of this being Barry. We have a warm core, closed circulation, and 52kt FL winds. Regardless...this is the nicest thing about this storm. This type of storm will only bring answers to a lot of prayers...

[wjs3]

I'm glad I don't have the responsibility of being a NHC forecaster! What should they do? Whatever they decide will result in some form of criticism... We have a developing low pressure system which will produce "tropical storm-force" conditions along some portion of the Florida coastline and is already producing tropical storm strength winds based on marine reports over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ and click observations search for the Gulf. AF reconaissance is finding borderline tropical storm force winds, but does not have a well defined vortex fix yet. Satellite imagery shows a non-tropical looking low pressure system moving northward through the SE Gulf. If they name it subtropical storm Barry some meteorologists and weather enthusiasts will cry "foul" that NHC upgrades too many systems that are not tropical. However, if they do, the media frenzy will ensure that any residents on the coastal areas of Florida will hear about the system and take whatever precautions to protect their property or avoid the inevitable "minor" coastal flooding. If they don't name it, some are going to say, "they should have named it since the effects of this system will be the same" as if a tropical storm comes ashore. I personally do not believe it has enough tropical characteristics to warrant classification, but since most models "deepen" the storm and it potentially could affect one of the most dangerous or susceptible coastal regions to coastal flooding (Florida's Big Bend) I believe they should name it "Barry." What do the rest of you think? Should NHC upgrade systems that will produce the same effects as a tropical storm to increase preparedness for coastal residents?

I believe you should post more often. Two great posts today.

I haven't looked at recon yet to have a POV based on the science. I believe the science should rule--I'm a lot like Aric on this one--but I think it was Jack Beven who said that not all systems are going to fit into our neat little "tropical" and "subtropical" and "extratropical" paradigm.

And, if they don't then I think that erring on the side of naming and warning is the way to go.

I used to worry that coastal residents who had never experienced a cane would be made complacement if we named and warned on things like this. Now I'm beginning to think many of those residents, after the 04 and 05 seasons--follow these things and are beginning to understand the differences between strong and weak TCs, as well as the difficulties in forecasting the track.


The NHC's job is to protect lives and property. This is going to make landfall (unlike Andrea that was going out to sea). Classify it.

..all of that said without looking at any of the data (shame on me!)

My two cents (I think that makes 4 today)

WJS3

[txwatcher91]

Convection is firing on the Northern side of the center where the 60mph winds were found. Click here, and click on animation, and click near the center.

[tomboudreau]

Is Pojo on this flight or has she not passed enough classes to get to fly to one of these systems yet?

[miamicanes177]

If we have 2 named storms by June 1st the media will go crazy. This could be 2005 all over again.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm pretty sure its tropical enough to be upgraded, they found a warm core with convection trying to form over the center. With over 50 knot winds at flight levels,,,yes it looks extratropical but data says other wises.


I Believe 91L was the better looking system overall, but this has the data.

[T-man]

Media already crazy, IMHO

[MGC]

After looking to the latest satellite loops and recon info, I'd be shocked if this in not at least a TD or TS......MGC

[Weatherfreak000]

Technically it would mean 2007 has a 27 day lead on 2005 to form it's third storm.


I shudder to think it'll be as significant a storm as Hurricane Cindy. Currently shear is high and I'm very much fine with a 25 day lull of storm activity when "Barry" makes his appearance.

[CrazyC83]

If we have 2 named storms by June 1st the media will go crazy. This could be 2005 all over again.

I'd rather have a record-breaking season of weak storms and fish-spinners than a "quiet" season with a Katrina-sized disaster or two though...