Barry Advisories

[brunota2003]

...Tropical Storm Barry forms in the Gulf of Mexico...


at 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the West Coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to Keaton
Beach...and a tropical storm watch has been issued from north of
Keaton Beach to St. Marks. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours and a tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 24.2 north...longitude 85.5 west or about 320
miles...520 km...southwest of Tampa Florida and about 235 miles...
375 km...west of Key West Florida.


Barry is moving toward the north near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A gradual
turn to the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before
Barry reaches the coast.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km
mainly to the north and east of the center.


Minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance aircraft was
1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are
possible in the warning area near and to the right of where the
center of Barry makes landfall.

Barry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6
inches over the Florida Keys and peninsula into southeastern
Georgia with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...24.2 N...85.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Avila

[Steve]

Official. Bring on the rainfall for you Floridians.

Steve

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
2100 UTC FRI JUN 01 2007

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 85.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 85.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 41.0N 70.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

[Aric Dunn]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... TPZ32.KNHC

warnings

[brunota2003]

TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS. INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO
BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BARRY SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND PANHANDLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 24.2N 85.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 26.5N 84.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1800Z 41.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Recurve]

Wind probabilities, Gulf to New England

NHC-Wind probabilities

[cycloneye]

KNHC 012339
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE BARRY REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 012345
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..COR FOR WIND SPEED IN THE REPEAT SECTION...

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE BARRY REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA


They corrected the Maximun winds at the repeating section.

[cycloneye]

588
WTNT32 KNHC 020240
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY SOAKING FLORIDA...MORE TO COME...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST.
MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THIS CASE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...440 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.7 N...84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

996
WTNT42 KNHC 020241
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...STRONG
SHEAR HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INDICATES THAT
BARRY IS NOT CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF
AN EXPOSED CENTER SURROUNDED BY A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE FACT
THAT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS. BARRY SHOULD BEGIN
TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

BARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CAUSED BY THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE CENTER OF BARRY IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER SINCE THE STORM IS NOT SYMMETRIC.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
COULD REMAIN BEHIND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR
BUT NONE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS PROVIDED THIS SOLUTION SO FAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 24.7N 84.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 27.3N 84.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/1200Z 33.0N 80.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/0000Z 36.1N 76.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/0000Z 42.0N 70.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/0000Z ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Regit]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 020841
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

...POORLY-ORGANIZED BARRY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST.
MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THIS CASE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF BARRY ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CENTER AT THIS TIME...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BARRY WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AT THIS TIME...WITH NOAA BUOY 41009 EAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL REPORTING GUSTS TO 40 MPH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL. WIND AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH
BARRY ARE PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIPS CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.9 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

728
WTNT32 KNHC 021150
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

...CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED BARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST.
MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THIS CASE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA.

BARRY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...
32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BARRY ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BARRY WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER IT MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AT THIS TIME...WITH NOAA BUOY 41009 EAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL REPORTING GUSTS TO 47 MPH...75 KM/HR...DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL. WIND AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH
BARRY ARE PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIPS CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...27.1 N...83.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

...BARRY WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INLAND ACROSS TAMPA BAY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT
NORTH OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM... NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH
...37 KM/HR. THE GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS A FEW SQUALLS. BARRY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE AS THE
CYCLONE MADE LANDFALL WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

WIND AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY ARE PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...28.0 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PROENZA

AT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR...SURFACE DATA AND INFORMATION FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS
BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TAMPA BAY. THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE DIMINISHED
TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE WIND SHEAR. THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

NOTE: TWO TROPICAL STORMS MAKE LANDFALL THIS MORNING WITHIN ABOUT
ONE HOUR...BARRY NEAR TAMPA BAY AND BARBARA NEAR THE BORDER OF
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 28.0N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 81.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1200Z 33.5N 79.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 36.0N 76.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 39.5N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PROENZA

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 022033
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

...BARRY RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
81.6 WEST...VERY NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BARRY IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM EASTERN GEORGIA UP THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF VIRGINA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 022057
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

BARRY IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THIS TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY THE
RAIN DISTRIBUTION WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL SOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED
BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHEAST OF THE
DEPRESSION IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPS FURTHER AND MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BARRY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01
KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 30.4N 81.6W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 03/0600Z 33.0N 80.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0600Z 39.0N 75.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1800Z 42.0N 72.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA