SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

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Yankeegirl
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#341 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Jun 02, 2007 2:26 pm

Im not concerned about any rain or storms here.... Just a nice weekend ahead!!
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#342 Postby southerngale » Sat Jun 02, 2007 4:45 pm

The slight risk is just a tad north of here. We certainly don't need any rain, but how 'bout some clouds? omg...it's soooo hot outside. I was pouring bottled water on me at the ballpark today and it started boiling on my skin. :P
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#343 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:43 pm

just wait until next week... Temps. here are forecasted to reach the middle 90s!
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Suprise rainfall

#344 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:22 pm

I heard a few clashes of thunder and it has been raining for a while near Downtown Houston. Was this expected?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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#345 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:30 pm

Its summertime, storms are always expected.... There are just a few seabreeze pop up storms....
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#346 Postby southerngale » Sun Jun 03, 2007 12:40 pm

My weather alert went off a few minutes ago. A line of storms is racing southeast. 5 severe thunderstorm warnings currently for this system. Geesh... and it's not that big.


Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC199-241-351-361-457-032300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0337.070603T1720Z-070603T2300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HARDIN JASPER NEWTON
ORANGE TYLER
$$


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...



[web]http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lch&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no[/web]
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#347 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 03, 2007 1:02 pm

looks like the SPC thinks we could have a very active morning tomorrow...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 30_any.gif

Lots of SE Texas has a 30% severe risk!

From the SPC:
...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY...
WELL-DEVELOPED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX...PSBLY ALONG OR JUST E OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA/UPR TX COAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
NERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SABINE
RVR VLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA...JOINING UP WITH OTHER
TSTMS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT ALONG THE
GULF COAST...BUT PROSPECTS FOR MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND MEAN WLY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE ENOUGH FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH
MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS.
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#348 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jun 03, 2007 1:19 pm

Thats why NOAA has a 40% chance of storms tonight after 1 am and a 30% chance of storms this afternoon.... A stormy rush hour monday morning really bites!!!
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#349 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jun 03, 2007 3:41 pm

Well now they lowered the rain chances tonight to 30% and the same for tomorrow...

This Afternoon: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. West wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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#350 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 03, 2007 3:49 pm

yeah, I don't know why they lowered it though. The afternoon discussion looked pretty promising for storms tonight/tomorrow and with a decent severe risk from the SPC, a 30% rain chance sounds too low. I bet they will up the chance later tonight or tomorrow once something actually forms to our west and they get a better handle on the situation.
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#351 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jun 03, 2007 3:57 pm

I think they lowered the chance of severe storms tomorrow... It was in the 30% risk area, but Im not so sure now... There is some popping of storms happening now around College Station/Austin area..... We shall see later on tonight... It sure is hot and humid out there!!!
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#352 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:29 pm

I saw outflow boundries on radar. I expect more storms to form later today. I checked tomorrow's forecast and is only calling 40% of rain. Based on EWG's posting, there could be severe weather tonight to tomorrow morning. I notice we have a rather high chance and that could be a problem.
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#353 Postby CajunMama » Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:32 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:I think they lowered the chance of severe storms tomorrow... It was in the 30% risk area, but Im not so sure now... There is some popping of storms happening now around College Station/Austin area..... We shall see later on tonight... It sure is hot and humid out there!!!


I see those at college station...where i'm at right now! Let's hope these storms stay to the west of cs so the cajuns can win their regional!
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#354 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:43 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:I think they lowered the chance of severe storms tomorrow... It was in the 30% risk area, but Im not so sure now... There is some popping of storms happening now around College Station/Austin area..... We shall see later on tonight... It sure is hot and humid out there!!!
Still at 30% according to the SPC ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 30_any.gif ). We will not have another update for tomorrow though for about 8-9 hours...but I wouldn't expect much of a change. According to the NWS and SPC an MCS should move through here sometime tomorrow morning coming from the west.
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#355 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:27 pm

strong storms popping up to the north...

[web]http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.5369565217391304&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=HGX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=314.5&map.y=198.5&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0[/web]
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#356 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:31 pm

There are also some storms popping again out in far west Texas...Wonder if those will hold together for later tonight/tomorrow morning...?
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#357 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:34 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:There are also some storms popping again out in far west Texas...Wonder if those will hold together for later tonight/tomorrow morning...?
I think that is what the SPC is predicting to happen (for those to become a squall line and then move through). I guess we will see what happens overnight..
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#358 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:46 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-021-027-031-039-041-051-053-055-071-089-091-099-149-157-
167-171-177-185-187-201-209-259-265-281-285-287-291-299-313-331-
333-339-395-407-453-471-473-477-481-491-040700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0342.070603T2245Z-070604T0700Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BASTROP BELL
BLANCO BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL
CHAMBERS COLORADO COMAL
CORYELL FAYETTE FORT BEND
GALVESTON GILLESPIE GONZALES
GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS
HAYS KENDALL KERR
LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE
LIBERTY LLANO MADISON
MILAM MILLS MONTGOMERY
ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON WILLIAMSON
$$
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#359 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jun 03, 2007 6:06 pm

Those storms out by College Station seem to be dying out pretty quick... I guesss there is maybe more in store for later, since the watch lasts till 2 am?!
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#360 Postby jeff » Sun Jun 03, 2007 6:59 pm

Large MCS to affect a large part of C and SE TX tonight.

Old outflow boundary from MCS last night extends from BPT to Spring to KCLL where numerous severe storms have erupted this afternoon over the N half of SE TX and over much of C TX. Large complex of storms has formed over far WC TX where MCS formation is likely in the next few hours.

Main threat will be wind damage and hail as this complex moves into C TX after midnight and through SE TX after midnight (more likely toward 300am-600am).

NW flow aloft will remain for the next 2-3 days with disturbances in the flow sparking nightly MCS activity over TX and old outflow boundaries focusing convection during the afternoon hours.

LArge summer like ridge gains control toward the end of the week with the heat really cranking up.
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