So what is our next area to watch?

[CrazyC83]

If there is going to be a storm anywhere, I think the northern Gulf of Mexico (particularly off of Texas) and the deep Caribbean are the most likely areas.

[SouthFloridawx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ok well actually, if I was a weather enthusiast and liked to try to pick out the next Tropical/Surface Low event in the Atlantic Basin. I'm not looking too much at what the model develop. I am going to go with a gut feeling looking at the current conditions and the forecasts for the next 5-6 days.... So here goes.

To tell you the truth, I would image that the following may possibly happen. Below I've posted an image to use for my points.

1. Moisture in the Caribbean left over from Barry. I'm wondering if it will linger around.
2. Tropical Storm Barbara making landfall in Mexico.
3. Cold front moving towards the Northern gulf in 4-5 days.
4. Low Backround Pressures in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
5. Low Wind Shear forecast in the Caribbean.
6. Another Burst of Upper Level Energy in the Eastern half of the US.

With Tropical Storm Barbara's Energy Hanging around and not much to push it out, low backround pressures and a cold front that is expecting to near or reach the gulf coast in about 4 days.... There will be southerly flow from the Caribbean and the Gulf in about 3-5 days. This should stream tropical moisture to meet up with the cold front and cause some decent convection at that point. The short-wave will move out and what do we have left over after it does? We got an interesting area to watch. I think we may see another tropical low form in the gulf, sometime Wednesday through Friday of next week.

As we see with Barry these are the areas to watch in June.

This is merely conjecture on my part looking at the synoptics. I don't have any model support and obviously, I'm fairly new at this (2004 is when I first started really getting into it). So we'll see what happens..


Links:



Southern Surface Winds in the Gulf and Carribean 96 Hours
http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/gfs_ten_096l.gif
HPC Day 4 Forecast -
http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/9kh.gif
Wind Shear forecast 120 Hours -
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr

GFS -
300mb Vorticity 120 Hours
http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/300vort20.png
300mb Heights/Wind 120 Hours
http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/gfs_300_120l.gif
500mb Heights/Vorticity 96 Hours
http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/gfs_500_096l.gif



Barbara -
http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/144545W_sm.gif






EDIT: I would also like to add the Bahamas in there on Day 5-6 because of the trailing cold front as the ULT pulls out of the east, northward...

[JonathanBelles]

I was wondering about Barbara in the BOC in a few days.

[TrekkerCC]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ok well actually, if I was a weather enthusiast and liked to try to pick out the next Tropical/Surface Low event in the Atlantic Basin. I'm not looking too much at what the model develop. I am going to go with a gut feeling looking at the current conditions and the forecasts for the next 5-6 days.... So here goes.

To tell you the truth, I would image that the following may possibly happen. Below I've posted an image to use for my points.

1. Moisture in the Caribbean left over from Barry. I'm wondering if it will linger around.
2. Tropical Storm Barbara making landfall in Mexico.
3. Cold front moving towards the Northern gulf in 4-5 days.
4. Low Backround Pressures in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
5. Low Wind Shear forecast in the Caribbean.
6. Another Burst of Upper Level Energy in the Eastern half of the US.

With Tropical Storm Barbara's Energy Hanging around and not much to push it out, low backround pressures and a cold front that is expecting to near or reach the gulf coast in about 4 days.... There will be southerly flow from the Caribbean and the Gulf in about 3-5 days. This should stream tropical moisture to meet up with the cold front and cause some decent convection at that point. The short-wave will move out and what do we have left over after it does? We got an interesting area to watch. I think we may see another tropical low form in the gulf, sometime Wednesday through Friday of next week.

As we see with Barry these are the areas to watch in June.

This is merely conjecture on my part looking at the synoptics. I don't have any model support and obviously, I'm fairly new at this (2004 is when I first started really getting into it). So we'll see what happens..

(edited SouthFloridawx's post in my quote for length purposes, please consult his post if you want to look at the charts)

This should apply to me as well, through I'm not strictly making a forecast:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Good Post. For me, I am concerned as the sub-tropical jet that is screaming over the Gulf of Mexico will not be going away soon. If something were to develop in the Caribbean, then likely it will be sheared apart just as Tropical Storm Barry was. Now, the GFS hints (longer term) that the jet will no longer be positioned over the Gulf of Mexico after awhile, but this is the GFS (and I'm skeptical).

[mesocyclone]

So if Barbara moves into the Gulf does its name change to Chantal or does it stay the same?

[Regit]

So if Barbara moves into the Gulf does its name change to Chantal or does it stay the same?

It would be Chantal.

[Meso]

Gfs at 228 hours LINK
at 288 hours LINK

I know it's a long way out and the GFS,but... You know.. always something to just keep an eye open for..although unlikely to occur

Looks almost like a barry-clone

[SouthFloridawx]

Gfs at 228 hours LINK
at 288 hours LINK

I know it's a long way out and the GFS,but... You know.. always something to just keep an eye open for..although unlikely to occur

Looks almost like a barry-clone

yeah i saw that earlier tonight... We'll see, lol.

[windstorm99]

I tend not to put to much focus on models that far out as the models skill level drops of as you go in time.

[Nimbus]

Meso Wrote:

Gfs at 228 hours LINK
at 288 hours LINK

The shear forecast patterns for the NW caribbean are more favorable than May.

96 hour shear trend

Usually once the summer pattern arrives fronts don't dig as far south in the gulf and there is more likelyhood of high pressure over the NW caribbean. The early hurricane season often features shear from the north coast of south America which hinders central Caribbean development. Also if there is a lot of tropical formation in the East Pacific it can hinder development in the gulf of mexico and the southwest Caribbean.

Anyone see any telltale signals that clearly indicate this year might be like ???

[Noah]

Most caribbean storms do not form till later in summer right? Could any of this have to do with last years non event of hurricanes that the water never really got cooled?

[Frank2]

There is a small chance that whatever is left of Barbara might cross the isthmus into the BOC, but, it's remote...

[HurricaneHunter914]

I doubt this is our next area to watch, but a giant blob just came off the coast of Africa.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Any thoughts?

[Sjones]

Wow! Hmmmm...

[Windtalker1]

I doubt this is our next area to watch, but a giant blob just came off the coast of Africa.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Any thoughts?

Wow wouldn't that be something.....an early Cape Verde season. This board would be non-stop for the next 6 months lol

[Opal storm]

WAY too early to be looking that far east, those waves will go poof when they get off the coast.

[skysummit]

Meso Wrote:

Gfs at 228 hours LINK
at 288 hours LINK

The shear forecast patterns for the NW caribbean are more favorable than May.

96 hour shear trend

Usually once the summer pattern arrives fronts don't dig as far south in the gulf and there is more likelyhood of high pressure over the NW caribbean. The early hurricane season often features shear from the north coast of south America which hinders central Caribbean development. Also if there is a lot of tropical formation in the East Pacific it can hinder development in the gulf of mexico and the southwest Caribbean.

Anyone see any telltale signals that clearly indicate this year might be like ???

Yup....anything that can spin up, will.

[HURAKAN]

So if Barbara moves into the Gulf does its name change to Chantal or does it stay the same?

It would be Chantal.

According to the most recent agreements, if a storm crosses Mexico or Central America and doesn't dissipate, then it keeps its name in the other basin. If a storm dissipates while crossing, aka Barbara, and another low pressure system develops from the remains and gets named, the name will be the next available in that basin. Therefere, if Barbara's remains redevelop in the Atlantic, it would be named Chantal, like it has been accurately pointed out!!!

[miamicanes177]

Is this the remnants of Barbara? http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... e8aV89.jpg

[DrewFL]

Very similar isn't it?