Severe weather outbreak - June 6-8 - Plains to Northeast

[CrazyC83]

Based on the latest models I have seen, we have quite a wild week ahead in terms of severe weather. Could be a major multi-day outbreak, and wind shear profiles are just screaming tornadoes...particularly on June 6 and 7.

My guess for locations:

Wednesday, June 6: Central Plains from the Dakotas to Oklahoma, centered on Kansas

Thursday, June 7: Mississippi Valley from Wisconsin to northern Arkansas, centered on IL/IA/MO (from what I can see, that will be the worst day)

Friday, June 8: Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley from northern Ontario to Kentucky, centered on NW Ohio

Saturday, June 9 and Sunday, June 10: Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, although it might weaken considerably by then and models are split on where exactly

[WindRunner]

I agree, Thursday is definately going to show the worst of this. I wouldn't be surprised if Friday put on a good straightline showing too, but it's still too early to say. Sat and Sun are still way up in the air, though I think it's going to flatten out and stay more to the north for the weekend.

Regardless, looks like some fun days ahead . . .

[wxmann_91]

I agree, Thursday is definately going to show the worst of this. I wouldn't be surprised if Friday put on a good straightline showing too, but it's still too early to say. Sat and Sun are still way up in the air, though I think it's going to flatten out and stay more to the north for the weekend.

Regardless, looks like some fun days ahead . . .

Oh where oh where have you been? Glad to see that you're back posting...

[WindRunner]

Very busy spring . . . senior year means scholarships and college and such, so I've had to sit back and look at the storms on my own. It means I haven't had as much time to look at models, but with the seniors' last day of school tomorrow . . . I am PRIMED for this week.

Of course, my hopes for Saturday storms staying north may be biased due to graduation, but that's a side effect that can't be avoided

[Windy]

Thursday? My money is on Wednesday. Northern plains. WRF and GFS both point to NE Nebraska/ SE South Dakota ATTM, but we're still 3 days out so I'm sure that will change. At any rate, the models prog tons of moisture, a surface low in the 980's, a great LLJ, strong shear, and an exiting upper level jet over eastern South Dakota to boot. Hopefully the models aren't just taunting us.

[wxmann_91]

Very busy spring . . . senior year means scholarships and college and such, so I've had to sit back and look at the storms on my own. It means I haven't had as much time to look at models, but with the seniors' last day of school tomorrow . . . I am PRIMED for this week.

Of course, my hopes for Saturday storms staying north may be biased due to graduation, but that's a side effect that can't be avoided

Congrats! Hope you have a wonderful graduation ceremony...


I'm looking at this, and my mind is stuck on one problem: the cap. 700mb temps are in excess of 15°C across much of the Plains. We will need a strong lifting mechanism to break it. But, if we do, the instability and shear combination is insane for June. Absolutely insane. Any supercell rooted in the boundary layer will have the ability to produce a significant tornado.

[CrazyC83]

Very busy spring . . . senior year means scholarships and college and such, so I've had to sit back and look at the storms on my own. It means I haven't had as much time to look at models, but with the seniors' last day of school tomorrow . . . I am PRIMED for this week.

Of course, my hopes for Saturday storms staying north may be biased due to graduation, but that's a side effect that can't be avoided

Congrats! Hope you have a wonderful graduation ceremony...


I'm looking at this, and my mind is stuck on one problem: the cap. 700mb temps are in excess of 15°C across much of the Plains. We will need a strong lifting mechanism to break it. But, if we do, the instability and shear combination is insane for June. Absolutely insane. Any supercell rooted in the boundary layer will have the ability to produce a significant tornado.

This seems to have the look and feel of June 15-17, 1992. June 6 or 7 could very well be like what February 2, March 1 and May 4 could be.

[jhamps10]

Ok I must disagree on what may 4th could be there, EF5, numerous tornadoes on that cell, unless your going on widespread supercells, then I could understand your point highly.

but yes I do agree that if the cap errodes, then it could be down right scary. It COULD be a 2 day strech that we may not forget for a while to come.

[CrazyC83]

ALREADY a MDT for Day 3 (only the fourth time!).

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN
MN...AND WRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID OH VALLEY ESEWD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNSEASONABLY-STRONG SWLY
JET STREAK. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST OVER THE NRN PLAINS -- YIELDING A 975 MB LOW OVER ERN ND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THIS
FRONT -- AND A LEADING DRYLINE -- LIKELY TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES THIS
PERIOD.

VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ IS
FORECAST TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...BENEATH
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION. BY
AFTERNOON...MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD YIELD EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. CAPPING WILL LIKELY HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWD INTO NEB.
CAP MAY BE BREACHED LOCALLY ALLOWING ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG DRYLINE AS FAR S AS SRN KS/OK/WRN N TX.

WITH 60 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE STRONG/INTENSIFYING
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR SHOULD BE EXCEPTIONALLY-FAVORABLE --
GIVEN DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY -- FOR LARGE/INTENSE SUPERCELL
STORMS. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED -- WITH A FEW
SIGNIFICANT/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS
TO EXIST ATTM ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF SD AND NEB AND INTO SWRN
MN/WRN IA.

OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY REGION...AS COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES TO 70 KT INTO THIS AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...PERHAPS EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE WRN UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH LARGER-SCALE RIDGE. WITH MID-LEVEL WNWLY
FLOW NEAR 40 KT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM
CLUSTERS WILL EXIST...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 06/04/2007

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1221Z (8:21AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[WindRunner]

ALREADY a MDT for Day 3 (only the fourth time!).

Yes, I was quite happy this morning when I saw the big red box at the top of the SPC page . . . I think it's safe to say that tomorrow will be the fifth time for a Day 3 MDT as well . . .

[CrazyC83]

ALREADY a MDT for Day 3 (only the fourth time!).

Yes, I was quite happy this morning when I saw the big red box at the top of the SPC page . . . I think it's safe to say that tomorrow will be the fifth time for a Day 3 MDT as well . . .

And possibly the second time for a Day 2 HIGH...

[snoopj]

Here's to a cap holding! *raises glass*

--snoopj

[HurricaneBill]

Wow, this sounds exciting yet serious at the same time. 2007 has already been a bad year for tornadoes.

[snoopj]

We've now got Day 2 MDTs and Day 3 MDTs. Yikes.

[WindRunner]

We've now got Day 2 MDTs and Day 3 MDTs. Yikes.

Yep. Thing to look at, though, is that the Day 2 hatch goes from the ND/SD border to the OK/TX border. Day 3 hatch goes from OK/TX border all the way up through Wisconsin and into Canada . . . should be some good action in the eastern Plains states on Thursday.

[CrazyC83]

That MDT for Day 2 could easily turn to HIGH at the next update. This could be a historic outbreak brewing...the only comparable event I can find is June 15-17, 1992.

[snoopj]

We've now got Day 2 MDTs and Day 3 MDTs. Yikes.

Yep. Thing to look at, though, is that the Day 2 hatch goes from the ND/SD border to the OK/TX border. Day 3 hatch goes from OK/TX border all the way up through Wisconsin and into Canada . . . should be some good action in the eastern Plains states on Thursday.

Well, you get any break in the cap all the way down towards the SW of the storm, you are going to have almost-instant supercells forming. That's why it's hatched, but not in the major percentage ranges, like up around ND/SD/Nebraska/Iowa. If the cap goes....look out to the south.

Here's hoping the cap holds.

--snoopj

[jhamps10]

well folks this is truely historic.

first time ever we have had 2 days in a row of a day 3 moderate risk.

and quite frankly with the set up, if we can get only a few cells to develop then well I'm afraid we could be dealing with another Greensburg on our hands folks.

I think though that the moderate risk on day 3 needs expanded south a little, maybe to say just north of St Louis.

[WindRunner]

well folks this is truely historic.

first time ever we have had 2 days in a row of a day 3 moderate risk.

and quite frankly with the set up, if we can get only a few cells to develop then well I'm afraid we could be dealing with another Greensburg on our hands folks.

I think though that the moderate risk on day 3 needs expanded south a little, maybe to say just north of St Louis.

I wouldn't be surprised if we got two or three Greensburg-esque situations over the two day period . . . of course, the cap is looking somewhat stronger now, especially to the south.

And they'll expand it as it gets closer, no need freaking people out unless they're quite certain of it . . . and the cap will probably prevent that until it's time to put out the watches. I do agree, however, that NE Missouri will probably be a trouble spot on Thursday . . .

[jhamps10]

new SPC day 2 forecast is out, and it's still moderate risk, in fact they trimmed back the moderate risk. things in it just doesn't sound right to me,