SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

[Extremeweatherguy]

moderate risk now issued all the way to Houston...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER TX COAST...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
FROM ERN NM...SEWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTY.
SERN-MOST ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY CONGEALING INTO LARGER THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS THAT WILL SOON EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT EXPANDS IN AREAL
COVERAGE OVER SCNTRL TX. AIRMASS ACROSS SAT COUNTY WARNING AREA IS
QUITE UNSTABLE...ROUGHLY 2500-3500 J/KG...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
INSTABILITY EXTENDING EWD TOWARD HOU. AS COLD POOL DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF LEADING ECHOES IT APPEARS PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. LATEST THINKING IS A SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL SOON EVOLVE
FROM JUST NW OF AUS TO S OF JCT. DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL SPREAD ESEWD TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST LATER
TONIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRT WAS CAPPED THIS EVENING WITH ROUGHLY
100 J/KG OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER...A VERY INTENSE SUPERCELL HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN MEXICO WHICH WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER NEAR DRT SHORTLY. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING HP-SUPERCELL TYPE STRUCTURES.

[KatDaddy]

A very rough ride early tomorrow morning. Tis the season for the MCS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
804 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXC021-040145-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-070604T0145Z/
BASTROP TX-
804 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR BASTROP COUNTY...

AT 755 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMP SWIFT...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF
ELGIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CAMP SWIFT BY 815 PM CDT...
BASTROP AND CIRCLE D-KC ESTATES BY 825 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

Wouldn't want to be under that storm east of Austin right now!

[Bunkertor]

True -strong developement over the last hours...

[Yankeegirl]

You can see the dark clouds to my north.... But still not too sure if its going to make it all the way to Houston...

[KatDaddy]

Hey Yank be ready for an early wake-up. We are the target of this MCS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am becoming skeptical based on the last few minutes of radar loopage as to whether of not this will ever really reach Houston with the bang suggested by the SPC. Seems like there is weakening in the easternmost activity, and the stuff to the west of that looks to be heading SE and not E toward Houston.

I guess at this point we will just have to sit back and see what happens. Every now and then I do see a system like this suddenly blow up eastward with lots of new development in a short period of time that throws everyone off guard. May be this will be like one of those times? Who knows. ATM though it just seems really hard to judge as to whether or not this will actually make it here or not.

[Yankeegirl]

I agree with you EWG.... Looks like a lot of the activity that is trying to push into the area is falling apart as it gets closer to us... I also see it moving a little more to the south of here... Maybe Waller county... Not too sure about Harris and points east of that....

[KatDaddy]

Hey EWG I hear you. Personally I hope it slides to my SW.

[KatDaddy]

On a side note..............are we ready for hurricane season

[Yankeegirl]

I am.... just hold off till after july 7th.... I am getting remarried that day and leaving for Cancun the 9th till the 14th.... after then, its on!!!

[JenBayles]

Dumb question: our northern most counties were worked over this morning/afternoon with the earlier storm system. The air in west Harris county is so thick with moisture you need gills to breathe. What is the possibility that the storms are weaking a bit to the north due to the atmosphere already being worked over, and once they hit this juicier airmass, will blow up more or less on top of us? Possibility? Maybe?

[Ptarmigan]

I expect new storms to develop at night into the early morning hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dumb question: our northern most counties were worked over this morning/afternoon with the earlier storm system. The air in west Harris county is so thick with moisture you need gills to breathe. What is the possibility that the storms are weaking a bit to the north due to the atmosphere already being worked over, and once they hit this juicier airmass, will blow up more or less on top of us? Possibility? Maybe?

Sounds possible. Our area might be a little more unstable and once the complex to our west (or it's outflow boundaries) reach us, we could see some strong cells ignite. The SPC mentions this possibility in their latest mesoscale discussion: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0995.html

[Yankeegirl]

I can see some lightning to the north west of here...

[srainhoutx]

Would appear tonight that the boundry drapped across Cental and SE Texas this evening is a key factor. Good view via Radar Loop of MCV SE of Austin moving ESE...


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Extremeweatherguy]

one thing that stands out to me tonight is the mugginess. It feels like a steam bath outside..and I still have a temperature of 82-degrees at 10:27pm! Our area may have enough extra fuel to really spark off more intense storms as the complex gets ever closer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That cell WSW of Brenham really has me nervous. It is currently producing 1.75"-diameter hail, wind gusts over 70mph and has a radar-indicated mesocyclonic spin. Another key factor is that it is moving E or even ENE (instead of SE or ESE)! If this doesn't die out, or if it god-forbid strengthens further, then Harris county could be in big trouble in a couple of hours...

[web]http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.4097826086956522&scale=0.580&noclutter=0&ID=HGX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=365.5&map.y=240.5&centerx=556&centery=346&lightning=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0[/web]

..I will be watching this closely.

UPDATE: This storm is also now producing a tornado!

[Yankeegirl]

Lightning here and thundering too...off to the west...

[vbhoutex]

Well the initial outflow from the bigger complex to our west has hit Harris county and basically, at least on the West side, it appears to be exploding right above us. Explode may be strong, but these storms are developing quickly with copius lightning. Gonna be rough for a few hours unless some of this starts to break apart quickly.